{"id":54974,"date":"2026-11-02T18:25:04","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T17:25:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?post_type=event&#038;p=368042"},"modified":"2026-11-02T18:35:33","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T17:35:33","slug":"lecon-les-themes-invisibles-qui-feront-2027","status":"publish","type":"event","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/it\/eventi\/lecon-les-themes-invisibles-qui-feront-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"Les th\u00e8mes invisibles qui feront 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Sixi\u00e8me le\u00e7on du cycle \u00abD\u00e9coder la grande \u00e9lection \u2013 La France \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e8re de la grande polarisation\u00bb par Jean-Yves Dormagen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ce cycle de six le\u00e7ons du soir est ouvert \u00e0 toutes et \u00e0 tous, mais les inscriptions <a href=\"https:\/\/www.billetweb.fr\/cycle-decoder-la-grande-election\">sont obligatoires en cliquant ici<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">D\u00e9coder la grande \u00e9lection. La pr\u00e9sidentielle \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e8re de la grande polarisation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 moins de six mois du premier tour, pour la premi\u00e8re fois sous la Cinqui\u00e8me R\u00e9publique, une victoire du Rassemblement national \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle est devenue le sc\u00e9nario central de la plupart des sondages.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette dynamique est-elle durable ? Quelles forces peuvent encore barrer la route de l\u2019\u00c9lys\u00e9e \u00e0 Marine Le Pen ? \u00c0 quelles conditions Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon ou un candidat centriste peuvent-ils gagner leur pari ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dix ans apr\u00e8s l\u2019irruption d\u2019Emmanuel Macron et au terme de ses deux quinquennats, une course incertaine s\u2019ouvre, satur\u00e9e de chiffres, de commentaires et de petites phrases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour y voir plus clair, il n\u2019est pas toujours utile de suivre la campagne. Il faut d\u2019abord comprendre l\u2019\u00e9lectorat. De quels groupes se compose-t-il r\u00e9ellement ? Quels clivages le structurent durablement ? Et qu\u2019est-ce qui peut encore changer ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Points forts du cycle<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Dispens\u00e9 en soir\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019\u00c9cole normale sup\u00e9rieure et retransmis en ligne, ce cycle a \u00e9t\u00e9 con\u00e7u par <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/p\/jean-yves-dormagen\/\">Jean-Yves Dormagen<\/a>, professeur de science politique et fondateur de l\u2019institut Cluster17, afin d\u2019articuler deux lectures compl\u00e9mentaires, rarement associ\u00e9es : <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019analyse fine des donn\u00e9es chaudes, pour saisir au jour le jour les inflexions de la campagne.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La compr\u00e9hension des lignes de fond que la science politique permet de mesurer et d\u2019expliquer, qu\u2019il s\u2019agisse des clivages, de la polarisation, du vote de classe ou des nouvelles formes de politisation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Ensemble, elles offrent une introduction exceptionnellement fouill\u00e9e, accessible et rigoureuse \u00e0 une \u00e9lection d\u00e9cisive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sixi\u00e8me s\u00e9ance. Lundi 8 mars 2027 (J\u221240). Les th\u00e8mes invisibles qui feront 2027<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Hi\u00e9rarchie des enjeux, agenda \u00e9lectoral et propri\u00e9t\u00e9 des th\u00e8mes de campagne<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chaque pr\u00e9sidentielle a son sujet dominant et le candidat qui l\u2019impose prend souvent l\u2019avantage. En 2027, la bataille reste ouverte. Le pouvoir d\u2019achat arrive en t\u00eate des pr\u00e9occupations, mais l\u2019immigration et la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 continuent de structurer les votes, et la g\u00e9opolitique pourrait s\u2019inviter dans la campagne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quel enjeu l\u2019emportera, et au profit de qui ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 quarante jours du scrutin, une plong\u00e9e dans le corps \u00e9lectoral r\u00e9v\u00e9lera ce que les commentaires unidimensionnels ne peuvent pas montrer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le d\u00e9roul\u00e9 d\u2019une s\u00e9ance<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour garantir une progression continue et un suivi dynamique, chaque le\u00e7on s\u2019organise autour d\u2019un grand th\u00e8me, en trois temps.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Elle s\u2019ouvre sur un barom\u00e8tre de la campagne. D\u2019une s\u00e9ance \u00e0 l\u2019autre, il s\u2019agira d\u2019\u00e9tudier les intentions de vote, la solidit\u00e9 des choix, les potentiels et les rejets, les reports de voix, l\u2019image des candidats et la mobilisation des \u00e9lectorats, afin de d\u00e9gager les tendances et les vrais rapports de force.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Vient ensuite d\u2019une question de fond, \u00e9clair\u00e9e par les m\u00e9thodes et les acquis de la science politique contemporaine, trait\u00e9e de mani\u00e8re p\u00e9dagogique, en allers-retours entre th\u00e9orie et pratique.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Une vingtaine de minutes de questions-r\u00e9ponses r\u00e9serv\u00e9es aux inscrits cl\u00f4t la soir\u00e9e.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Un intervenant exceptionnel<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Professeur de science politique \u00e0 l\u2019universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, ancien \u00e9l\u00e8ve de l\u2019\u00c9cole normale sup\u00e9rieure de Fontenay-Saint-Cloud et de l\u2019\u00c9cole fran\u00e7aise de Rome, agr\u00e9g\u00e9 d\u2019histoire et de science politique, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/p\/jean-yves-dormagen\/\">Jean-Yves Dormagen<\/a> s\u2019est impos\u00e9 comme l\u2019un des meilleurs sp\u00e9cialistes du vote et de l\u2019abstention. On lui doit notamment <em>La d\u00e9mocratie de l\u2019abstention<\/em> (Gallimard, 2007), <em>Logiques du fascisme<\/em> (Fayard, 2008) et une <em>Introduction \u00e0 la sociologie politique<\/em> devenue un classique (De Boeck, 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En 2021, il fonde Cluster17, un institut de sondage d\u2019un nouveau genre, aujourd\u2019hui implant\u00e9 dans cinq pays europ\u00e9ens et reconnu pour la pr\u00e9cision de ses \u00e9tudes. Plut\u00f4t que de classer les citoyens selon leurs pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences partisanes, l\u2019institut les r\u00e9partit en seize groupes d\u00e9finis par leurs syst\u00e8mes de valeurs. Cette approche permet d&#8217;\u00e9clairer les proximit\u00e9s et les incompatibilit\u00e9s entre \u00e9lectorats, et de suivre les mouvements de voix \u00e0 l\u2019heure de la volatilit\u00e9. Elle a fait ses preuves : ses projections se sont r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9es tr\u00e8s proches des r\u00e9sultats des \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes et des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives fran\u00e7aises de 2024, des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives allemandes de 2025 et des \u00e9lections municipales de 2026 dans plusieurs grandes villes, de Paris \u00e0 Marseille.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Contributeur r\u00e9gulier du <em>Grand Continent<\/em>, il y publie des analyses largement reprises, notamment sur l\u2019\u00e9mergence de nouveaux <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/01\/28\/eurobazooka-trump-clivage-geopolitique\/\">clivages g\u00e9opolitique<\/a> et <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/11\/07\/comprendre-le-nouveau-clivage-ecologique-donnees-inedites\/\">\u00e9cologique<\/a>. Depuis deux ans, il construit avec la revue un barom\u00e8tre de l\u2019opinion publique europ\u00e9enne, au nom de code <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/themes\/politique\/eurobazooka-mesurer-lopinion-publique-europeenne\/\">Eurobazooka<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":13862,"template":"templates\/event-seminar.php","categories":[],"event-type":[],"geo":[],"class_list":["post-54974","event","type-event","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les th\u00e8mes invisibles qui feront 2027 - Il Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sixi\u00e8me le\u00e7on du cycle \u00abD\u00e9coder la grande \u00e9lection\u00bb de Jean-Yves Dormagen, consacr\u00e9e aux th\u00e8mes invisibles qui feront l&#039;\u00e9lection de 2027.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/it\/eventi\/lecon-les-themes-invisibles-qui-feront-2027\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Les th\u00e8mes invisibles qui feront 2027 - 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