{"id":90237,"date":"2020-11-04T12:43:05","date_gmt":"2020-11-04T11:43:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=90237"},"modified":"2020-11-20T23:36:30","modified_gmt":"2020-11-20T22:36:30","slug":"leffondrement-economique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2020\/11\/04\/leffondrement-economique\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019effondrement \u00e9conomique"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Cette deuxi\u00e8me vague et les mesures qui en d\u00e9coulent seront particuli\u00e8rement violentes pour les \u00e9conomies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>La crise \u00e9conomique du COVID-19<\/strong>. Il y a quelques semaines, dans nos colonnes, Olivier Blanchard revenait sur les importantes cons\u00e9quences du d\u00e9sormais \u00ab&#160;premier&#160;\u00bb confinement. De nombreuses mesures \u00ab&#160;ont permis d\u2019\u00e9viter ce qui aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 une chute catastrophique de la production, non seulement dans le secteur touch\u00e9, mais aussi dans le secteur non touch\u00e9. N\u00e9anmoins, la diminution de l\u2019activit\u00e9 demeure spectaculaire.&#160;\u00bb<\/li><li><strong>L\u2019angoisse de l\u2019avenir<\/strong>. \u00ab&#160;Beaucoup d\u2019entreprises sont en train de se rendre compte qu\u2019elles pourraient ne pas survivre. M\u00eame si elles ne font pas faillite, elles risquent de se retrouver \u00e0 court de fonds et dans l\u2019impossibilit\u00e9 d\u2019investir. De nombreux employ\u00e9s sont en train de se rendre compte qu\u2019ils pourraient ne pas r\u00e9cup\u00e9rer leur ancien emploi&#160;\u00bb.&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-90237' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2020\/11\/04\/leffondrement-economique\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-90237' title='BLANCHARD Olivier, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2020\/09\/23\/la-crise-economique-du-covid-19\/?mc_cid=14eb617322&amp;amp;mc_eid=9d9d57a1aa&quot;&gt;La crise \u00e9conomique du Covid-19, &lt;\/a&gt;Le Grand Continent, 23 septembre 2020'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/li><li><strong>Des pr\u00e9visions encore en baisse<\/strong>. Il y a quelques jours, le FMI a jet\u00e9 un froid sur l\u2019avenir qui attend nos \u00e9conomies. Si les pr\u00e9visions de croissance pour 2020 publi\u00e9es par le Fonds en octobre sont un peu meilleures que celles de juin, la catastrophe \u00e9conomique est bien l\u00e0 et, surtout, la reprise sera tout sauf rapide. L\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale va \u00e9videmment s\u2019am\u00e9liorer en 2021 par rapport \u00e0 2020, mais \u00e0 un niveau bien inf\u00e9rieur aux pr\u00e9visions de croissance 2019.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/mWYdq\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Le mod\u00e8le europ\u00e9en n\u2019est pas terrible dans cette reprise tr\u00e8s in\u00e9gale<\/strong>. Les \u00c9tats-Unis ont fait le choix de privil\u00e9gier l\u2019\u00e9conomie sur la mortalit\u00e9 alors que&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/lldl.us14.list-manage.com\/track\/click?u=10762824cc6c812ec1f389f08&amp;id=e047372afe&amp;e=9d9d57a1aa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">l\u2019Asie<\/a>, qui a le plus fid\u00e8lement mis en place la strat\u00e9gie \u00ab&#160;tester-tracer-isoler&#160;\u00bb ou a combin\u00e9 des mesures tr\u00e8s restrictives \u00e0 une reprise acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e de la production et des exportations, comme en Chine, a globalement r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 garder l\u2019\u00e9conomie et la mortalit\u00e9 \u00e0 des taux encourageants. L\u2019Europe n\u2019a pas trop choisi&#160;: elle cumule une chute de PIB et une mortalit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9es.<\/li><li><strong>La relance europ\u00e9enne n\u2019est pas gagn\u00e9e<\/strong>. Mercredi dernier, la Commission a fait une proposition en faveur d\u2019un salaire minimum \u00ab&#160;ad\u00e9quat&#160;\u00bb. Le m\u00eame jour, le trilogue Commission-Conseil-Parlement \u00e9tait loin du consensus sur le budget de l\u2019Union. En particulier, le Parlement a demand\u00e9 une hausse de 39 milliards d\u2019\u20ac, alors que le Conseil ne souhaite pas d\u00e9passer les 10 milliards. De ce fait, le Conseil, par la voix du porte-parole de la pr\u00e9sidence allemande de l\u2019Union Sebastian Fischer, a totalement rejet\u00e9 la proposition du Parlement.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium\">\n    <a\n        data-pswp-src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/unnamed-1.png\"\n        class=\"inline-block gallery-item no-underline \"\n        data-pswp-width=\"1056\"\n        data-pswp-height=\"742\">\n                        <picture>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/unnamed-1-330x232.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  374px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/unnamed-1-690x485.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width:  989px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/unnamed-1-990x696.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1319px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/unnamed-1-690x485.png\"\r\n                media=\"(max-width: 1599px)\" \/>\r\n                    <source\r\n                srcset=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/unnamed-1-990x696.png\"\r\n                media=\"(min-width: 1600px)\" \/>\r\n                <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"L\u2019effondrement \u00e9conomique crise financi\u00e8re covid-19 \u00e9conomie mondiale\" src=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/11\/unnamed-1-125x88.png\" \/>\r\n        <\/picture>\r\n                \n            <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Le signe d\u2019une reprise in\u00e9gale<\/strong>. Pendant cette p\u00e9riode, la Commission a assoupli les r\u00e8gles et la proc\u00e9dure relatives aux aides d&rsquo;\u00c9tat, pour que les \u00c9tats membres puissent apporter de l\u2019aide \u00e0 leurs entreprises nationales. Selon la Commission europ\u00e9enne, dans le total des aides d\u2019\u00c9tat attribu\u00e9es dans ce contexte, 52,7&#160;% ont concern\u00e9 l\u2019Allemagne, 15,2&#160;% l\u2019Italie, 14,1&#160;% la France, 5&#160;% l\u2019Espagne. Les autres \u00c9tats se partagent les 13&#160;% restants.&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Nota bene\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0Il faut surveiller la politique mon\u00e9taire. En d\u00e9cembre, la BCE devrait pr\u00e9senter un nouveau plan pour sauver les \u00e9conomies europ\u00e9ennes.\u00a0<\/em>&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-90237' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2020\/11\/04\/leffondrement-economique\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-90237' title='BLANCHARD Olivier, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2020\/11\/01\/la-deuxieme-vague-economique\/?mc_cid=14eb617322&amp;amp;mc_eid=9d9d57a1aa&quot;&gt;Olivier Blanchard&amp;#160;: la deuxi\u00e8me vague \u00e9conomique&lt;\/a&gt;, Le Grand Continent, 1 novembre 2020'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cette deuxi\u00e8me vague et les mesures qui en d\u00e9coulent seront particuli\u00e8rement violentes pour les \u00e9conomies europ\u00e9ennes. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":175,"featured_media":90239,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1727,2210],"tags":[2281],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-90237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","category-sante-publique","tag-coronavirus","staff-le-grand-continent","geo-europe"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u2019effondrement \u00e9conomique | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2020\/11\/04\/leffondrement-economique\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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