{"id":90077,"date":"2020-11-01T19:20:48","date_gmt":"2020-11-01T18:20:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=90077"},"modified":"2021-04-15T10:04:10","modified_gmt":"2021-04-15T08:04:10","slug":"la-deuxieme-vague-economique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2020\/11\/01\/la-deuxieme-vague-economique\/","title":{"rendered":"Olivier Blanchard&#160;: la deuxi\u00e8me vague \u00e9conomique"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Le degr\u00e9 d&rsquo;incertitude est beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 que lors de la premi\u00e8re vague, pendant laquelle on croyait (\u00e0 tort) que le taux d&rsquo;infection diminuerait rapidement et resterait faible par la suite. Cette fois, notre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9duire rapidement le taux d&rsquo;infection et \u00e0 le maintenir ensuite \u00e0 un niveau bas est davantage mise en question. Cette incertitude aura probablement un effet n\u00e9gatif sur le comportement des entreprises et des travailleurs en mati\u00e8re de consommation et d\u2019investissement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/mWYdq\/1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Par rapport aux premiers confinements nationaux, l\u2019objectif actuel est de maintenir un niveau d\u2019activit\u00e9 plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 &#8211; par exemple en maintenant les \u00e9coles ouvertes et en permettant ainsi aux parents d&rsquo;aller travailler (on ne peut encore dire si cette mesure pourra se maintenir) &#8211; de sorte que les effets d&rsquo;offre pourraient \u00eatre moins forts que lors de la premi\u00e8re vague. Cependant, l\u2019incertitude accrue pourrait avoir un effet n\u00e9gatif plus large sur la consommation et l\u2019investissement, engendrant une chute de la demande agr\u00e9g\u00e9e et, potentiellement, une baisse plus importante du PIB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Autre point, la politique budg\u00e9taire devra peut-\u00eatre \u00eatre plus g\u00e9n\u00e9reuse ou agressive que pendant le premier confinement, et ce pour deux raisons&#160;:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Premi\u00e8rement, lors de la premi\u00e8re vague, les aides de l\u2019\u00c9tat aux entreprises directement affect\u00e9es par les restrictions avaient largement pris la forme de pr\u00eats et de d\u00e9lais de paiement d\u2019imp\u00f4ts. Suivre la m\u00eame approche pendant la deuxi\u00e8me vague m\u00e8nerait \u00e0 des taux d\u2019endettement et des taux de faillite tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9s parmi les entreprises touch\u00e9es. Ainsi, les aides devront davantage prendre la forme de subventions que de pr\u00eats, une option plus co\u00fbteuse pour le gouvernement.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Deuxi\u00e8mement, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 l\u2019incertitude \u00e9lev\u00e9e, la demande priv\u00e9e risque d\u2019\u00eatre plus faible, ce qui n\u00e9cessitera des politiques de stimulation de la demande globale en plus des mesures de protection sanitaire.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette situation m\u00e8nera probablement \u00e0 de tr\u00e8s hauts niveaux d\u2019endettement public. Je continue \u00e0 penser que cette dette \u00e9lev\u00e9e n\u2019engendrera pas n\u00e9cessairement une crise de la dette. Les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eats sont encore faibles et, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la BCE, vont probablement encore diminuer \u00e0 court terme. Par ailleurs, les facteurs fondamentaux derri\u00e8re ces faibles taux am\u00e8nent \u00e0 penser qu\u2019ils resteront bas pendant encore longtemps. Ainsi, il est tr\u00e8s probable que le service de la dette reste soutenable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rien n\u2019est certain dans la vie, et encore moins dans cette crise. Il pourrait y avoir de nouvelles vagues, de nouvelles d\u00e9penses. Les investisseurs pourraient perdre leur confiance, les primes de risque pourraient mener \u00e0 des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, et la BCE pourrait s\u2019av\u00e9rer incapable de contrer cette hausse.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Faire des \u00e9conomies de bouts de chandelle en laissant se produire des faillites \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle, en limitant les allocations ch\u00f4mage et en laissant la demande s\u2019effondrer serait un mauvais calcul \u00e0 long terme. Les gouvernements devront avoir les nerfs solides. Esp\u00e9rons qu\u2019ils les ont. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Une r\u00e9action d&rsquo;Olivier Blanchard, professeur au Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) et ancien chef \u00e9conomiste au Fonds Mon\u00e9taire International (FMI), aux nouvelles mesures de confinement en Europe et \u00e0 leurs effets \u00e9conomiques. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":175,"featured_media":90078,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1727,2210],"tags":[2281],"staff":[2545],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-90077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","category-sante-publique","tag-coronavirus","staff-olivier-blanchard","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":90078,"excerpt":"Une r\u00e9action d'Olivier Blanchard, professeur au Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) et ancien chef \u00e9conomiste au Fonds Mon\u00e9taire International (FMI), aux nouvelles mesures de confinement en Europe et \u00e0 leurs effets \u00e9conomiques. 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