{"id":578,"date":"2018-04-08T12:00:14","date_gmt":"2018-04-08T10:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lldl.eu\/?p=578"},"modified":"2019-05-31T20:34:03","modified_gmt":"2019-05-31T18:34:03","slug":"des-consequences-politiques-du-libre-echange","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2018\/04\/08\/des-consequences-politiques-du-libre-echange\/","title":{"rendered":"Des cons\u00e9quences politiques du libre-\u00e9change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Los Angeles.<\/em> La crise populiste europ\u00e9enne et am\u00e9ricaine a replac\u00e9 la question des cons\u00e9quences politiques et institutionnelles des trait\u00e9s de libre-\u00e9change au c\u0153ur de la recherche \u00e9conomique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En 2016, Autor, Dorn, Hanson et Majlesi montraient d\u00e9j\u00e0 que l\u2019augmentation des \u00e9changes avec la Chine depuis le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000 avait grandement affect\u00e9 les pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences politiques des \u00e9lecteurs am\u00e9ricains, en leur faisant pr\u00e9f\u00e9rer des repr\u00e9sentants radicaux situ\u00e9s au bord du spectre politique conventionnel.  Les accords de libre-\u00e9change conclus par les Etats-Unis ont ainsi entra\u00een\u00e9 une droitisation du champ politique am\u00e9ricain vers des candidats r\u00e9publicains <em>et<\/em> protectionnistes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Plus r\u00e9cemment, deux chercheurs, Xianjun Ma (University  of International Business and Economics, P\u00e9kin) et John McLaren (University of Virginia, Charlottesville) ont examin\u00e9 dans un article du NBER (\u00ab&#160;A Swing State Theorem, with Evidence&#160;\u00bb) le poids politiques des <em>swing states<\/em>. Leur \u00e9tude, appuy\u00e9 par un mod\u00e8le et des analyses statistiques, montre qu\u2019un \u00e9lecteur d\u2019un \u00c9tat normal vaut les 2\/3 d\u2019un \u00e9lecteur de <em>swing state<\/em> pour les acteurs politiques. Cela se traduit, dans le cas des accords de libre-\u00e9change, par une politique de n\u00e9gociations d\u2019exceptions r\u00e9gionales en faveur des <em>swing states<\/em>. Par exemple, l\u2019accord de libre-\u00e9change NAFTA conclu entre les Etats-Unis, le Mexique et le Canada en 1994 d\u00e9savantageait grandement les producteurs de tomates californiens car le march\u00e9 \u00e9tait inond\u00e9 par les tomates mexicaines, moins ch\u00e8res.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 la veille des \u00e9lections de novembre 1996, l\u2019administration Clinton a donc conclu un accord sp\u00e9cifique avec le Mexique prot\u00e9geant les fermiers californiens. Une strat\u00e9gie que pourrait bien copier Donald Trump pour sauver la mise lors des prochaines \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Perspectives&#160;: <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Fin Avril&#160;: visite d\u2019Emmanuel Macron aux Etats-Unis&#160;: le libre-\u00e9change et les r\u00e9centes sanctions \u00e9conomiques mises en place par Trump seront un sujet central.<\/li><li>Novembre 2018&#160;: \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives am\u00e9ricaines (l\u2019ensemble de la chambre des repr\u00e9sentants et \u2153 du S\u00e9nat sont renouvel\u00e9s)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Sources<\/strong>&#160;:\n\n<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Xiangjun &amp; McLaren<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w24425\">, \u201cA Swing State Theorem, With Evidence\u201d, <\/a><em>NBER Working Papers<\/em>, mars 2018<\/li><li>Autor, Dorn, Hanson &amp; Majlesi<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w22637\">, \u201cImporting Political Polarization&#160;? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure\u201d, <\/a><em>NBER Working Papers<\/em>, d\u00e9cembre 2017<\/li><li>Rodrik<a href=\"https:\/\/press.princeton.edu\/titles\/11216.html\">, <em>Straight Talk on Trade<\/em>, <\/a>2017<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Los Angeles.\u00a0La crise populiste europ\u00e9enne et am\u00e9ricaine a replac\u00e9 la question des cons\u00e9quences politiques et institutionnelles des trait\u00e9s de libre-\u00e9change au c\u0153ur de la recherche \u00e9conomique.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1731],"tags":[],"geo":[525],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Des 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