{"id":370201,"date":"2026-11-14T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-11-14T05:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=370201"},"modified":"2026-11-14T01:21:13","modified_gmt":"2026-11-14T00:21:13","slug":"pourquoi-il-faut-preter-attention-a-la-courbe-de-popularite-de-poutine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/11\/14\/pourquoi-il-faut-preter-attention-a-la-courbe-de-popularite-de-poutine\/","title":{"rendered":"Pourquoi il faut pr\u00eater attention \u00e0 la courbe de popularit\u00e9 de Poutine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Selon les derniers sondages r\u00e9alis\u00e9s par le Levada Center, la principale ONG ind\u00e9pendante qui continue de travailler sur l\u2019opinion publique russe, la popularit\u00e9 de Vladimir Poutine a chut\u00e9 de 8 points en un an. Elle se situait en octobre \u00e0 77&#160;%, soit en l\u00e9g\u00e8re hausse (+3 points) par rapport au mois de juin (74&#160;%)&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-370201' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/11\/14\/pourquoi-il-faut-preter-attention-a-la-courbe-de-popularite-de-poutine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-370201' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.levada.ru\/2026\/10\/30\/reitingi-oktyabrya-2026\/&quot;&gt;\u0420\u0435\u0439\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0433\u0438 \u043e\u043a\u0442\u044f\u0431\u0440\u044f 2026 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430&amp;#160;: \u043d\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f, \u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0434\u0435\u043b \u0432 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0435, \u043e\u0434\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043e\u0440\u0433\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432 \u0432\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438, \u0440\u0435\u0439\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0433\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u0438 \u043f\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0438\u0439&lt;\/a&gt;, Levada Center, 30 octobre 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Poutine, qui exerce le pouvoir en Russie depuis plus de 25 ans, \u00e0 la t\u00eate du gouvernement et \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidence, a connu plusieurs chutes de sa popularit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En 2005 notamment, la d\u00e9cision de mon\u00e9tiser les avantages sociaux, c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire de remplacer les avantages en nature dont b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaient les retrait\u00e9s, comme les transports gratuits ou les m\u00e9dicaments, par des compensations financi\u00e8res jug\u00e9es insuffisantes, avait conduit des dizaines de milliers de personnes \u00e0 descendre dans les rues.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans les semaines qui ont suivi le d\u00e9but du mouvement, le gouvernement est revenu partiellement sur ce changement, puis Poutine a lanc\u00e9, en septembre, de vastes programmes de d\u00e9penses publiques dans les domaines de la sant\u00e9, du logement, de l\u2019\u00e9ducation et de l\u2019agriculture.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/uthVR\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Apr\u00e8s cet \u00e9pisode de 2005, se sont ensuivies deux baisses structurelles de la cote de Poutine dans les sondages&#160;: de 2011 \u00e0 2013, puis de 2018 \u00e0 2021. En avril 2020, durant la pand\u00e9mie de coronavirus, la popularit\u00e9 de Poutine \u00e9tait pass\u00e9e sous la barre des 60&#160;% pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis septembre 1999 dans les s\u00e9ries du Levada Center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans les deux cas, des op\u00e9rations militaires majeures lui ont offert un bond quasi instantan\u00e9 dans les enqu\u00eates d\u2019opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Entre novembre 2013 et novembre 2014, soit huit mois apr\u00e8s l\u2019annexion de la Crim\u00e9e, la popularit\u00e9 du pr\u00e9sident russe a bondi de 24 points, passant de 61&#160;% \u00e0 85&#160;% de taux d\u2019approbation, dont 11 points dans le seul mois de l\u2019annexion.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le lancement de l\u2019invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle de l\u2019Ukraine, en f\u00e9vrier 2022, a quant \u00e0 lui donn\u00e9 lieu \u00e0 une hausse de 22 points en l\u2019espace d\u2019un an, entre ao\u00fbt 2021 et ao\u00fbt 2022, dont 12 points entre f\u00e9vrier et mars 2022.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Les politistes parlent d\u2019effet de ralliement autour du drapeau. Les guerres, comme les attaques terroristes d\u2019ampleur ou les catastrophes, ont tendance \u00e0 changer l\u2019orientation \u00e9motionnelle de la population, au profit des dirigeants en place&#160;: la fiert\u00e9 et l\u2019espoir prennent le pas sur la col\u00e8re et l\u2019inqui\u00e9tude, et l\u2019action du pouvoir est jug\u00e9e plus favorablement, y compris dans des domaines sans rapport avec la crise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En extrapolant \u00e0 partir des chiffres du Levada Center, Poutine pourrait se retrouver au point o\u00f9 il en \u00e9tait avant 2014 et avant 2022 entre l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 2027 et le milieu de 2028.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Plusieurs t\u00e9moignages indiquent que Poutine se pr\u00e9occupe des r\u00e9sultats de ces enqu\u00eates d\u2019opinion. Son entourage est toutefois moins dispos\u00e9 qu\u2019auparavant \u00e0 lui montrer des sondages d\u00e9favorables&#160;: en 2022, le sociologue Sergue\u00ef Kha\u00efkine a voulu faire remonter \u00e0 Poutine des donn\u00e9es montrant l\u2019opposition \u00e0 la guerre parmi la jeunesse. Des responsables du Kremlin lui auraient alors r\u00e9pondu&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Il ne faut pas contrarier Vladimir Vladimirovitch&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-370201' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/11\/14\/pourquoi-il-faut-preter-attention-a-la-courbe-de-popularite-de-poutine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-370201' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.proekt.media\/narrative\/rating-putina\/&quot;&gt;\u041d\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0442\u0443\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0447\u0438\u0441\u043b\u0430. \u0427\u0430\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0430\u044f&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0435\u043a\u0442&lt;\/em&gt;, 7 juillet 2022.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Par le pass\u00e9, Poutine a choisi l\u2019escalade pour remonter sa cote<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":370203,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_source":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1731],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[550],"class_list":["post-370201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politique","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-russie"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":370203,"excerpt":"Par le pass\u00e9, Poutine a choisi l\u2019escalade pour remonter sa cote","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Pourquoi il faut pr\u00eater attention \u00e0 la 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