{"id":367989,"date":"2026-11-02T16:54:21","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T15:54:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=367989"},"modified":"2026-11-02T17:44:10","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T16:44:10","slug":"quest-ce-qui-constituerait-une-victoire-democrate-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/11\/02\/quest-ce-qui-constituerait-une-victoire-democrate-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/","title":{"rendered":"Qu\u2019est-ce qui constituerait une victoire d\u00e9mocrate aux \u00e9lections de mi-mandat&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Plus on se rapproche des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat, plus les enqu\u00eates sont favorables aux d\u00e9mocrates. Hier, dimanche 1er novembre, le <em>New York Times<\/em> a publi\u00e9 une s\u00e9rie de sondages qui indiquent que les d\u00e9mocrates sont en t\u00eate ou \u00e0 \u00e9galit\u00e9 dans les sept <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/31\/quels-sont-les-scrutins-a-suivre-lors-des-elections-de-mi-mandat\/\">\u00c9tats clefs<\/a> qui d\u00e9termineront le contr\u00f4le du S\u00e9nat&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-367989' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/11\/02\/quest-ce-qui-constituerait-une-victoire-democrate-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-367989' title='Shane Goldmacher et Ruth Igielnik, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/11\/01\/us\/politics\/times-siena-poll-senate.html&quot;&gt;Democrats Show Strength in Final Days of Race for the Senate, New Polls Find&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The New York Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 1er novembre 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Si une \u00ab&#160;vague bleue&#160;\u00bb semble tr\u00e8s probable \u00e0 cette heure, l\u2019ampleur de celle-ci peut consid\u00e9rablement varier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon l\u2019analyste Nate Cohn, quatre principaux sc\u00e9narios sont envisageables, en fonction de l\u2019ampleur de la vague et de l\u2019erreur des sondages.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container iframe-dynamic wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium \">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"w-full\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/iframes\/scenarios.html\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le premier sc\u00e9nario constituerait, par rapport aux derniers sondages, une victoire en demi-teinte pour les d\u00e9mocrates, qui prendraient le contr\u00f4le de la Chambre mais avec une courte majorit\u00e9, ce qui les mettrait face aux m\u00eames <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/12\/21\/la-guerre-civile-du-parti-republicain-a-la-chambre\/\">probl\u00e8mes de coh\u00e9sion<\/a> auxquels les r\u00e9publicains ont d\u00fb faire face depuis les \u00e9lections de 2022. Le S\u00e9nat resterait quant \u00e0 lui \u00e0 majorit\u00e9 r\u00e9publicaine.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le second sc\u00e9nario pourrait \u00eatre vu comme une victoire \u00e0 la Pyrrhus pour les r\u00e9publicains, qui, apr\u00e8s avoir d\u00e9pens\u00e9 des centaines de millions de dollars en <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/30\/les-7-meilleures-publicites-des-midterms-avec-deux-bonus\/\">publicit\u00e9s<\/a> dans des courses clefs, conserveraient le contr\u00f4le du S\u00e9nat gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la voix de J. D. Vance. La Chambre serait quant \u00e0 elle solidement d\u00e9mocrate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans le troisi\u00e8me sc\u00e9nario, les d\u00e9mocrates feraient basculer suffisamment de si\u00e8ges pour obtenir une majorit\u00e9 au S\u00e9nat. Le parti serait alors en mesure de faire de Donald Trump un v\u00e9ritable \u00ab&#160;<em>lame duck<\/em>&#160;\u00bb, soit un pr\u00e9sident dont les marges d\u2019action seraient consid\u00e9rablement r\u00e9duites.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le quatri\u00e8me sc\u00e9nario, que Nate Cohn qualifie de \u00ab&#160;tsunami&#160;\u00bb, verrait les d\u00e9mocrates l\u2019emporter largement jusque dans des \u00c9tats qui n\u2019ont pas \u00e9lu de s\u00e9nateur d\u00e9mocrate depuis des d\u00e9cennies&#160;: 1932 au Kansas, 1988 au Texas et dans le Maine, et 2008 en Alaska et dans l\u2019Iowa.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Les troisi\u00e8me et quatri\u00e8me sc\u00e9narios exposeraient les r\u00e9publicains \u00e0 trois principaux risques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le premier concerne la capacit\u00e9 des r\u00e9publicains \u00e0 inscrire leurs priorit\u00e9s dans les budgets qui seront vot\u00e9s en 2027 puis en 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Avec une majorit\u00e9 dans les deux chambres, les d\u00e9mocrates seraient en position de force pour pousser la Maison-Blanche \u00e0 faire des concessions sur les coupes dans Medicaid et l\u2019aide alimentaire, et sur la hausse consid\u00e9rable du budget du d\u00e9partement de la S\u00e9curit\u00e9 int\u00e9rieure, notamment de l\u2019ICE, l\u2019agence de l\u2019immigration et des douanes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ils pourraient aussi s\u2019opposer \u00e0 l\u2019augmentation significative du budget du Pentagone demand\u00e9e par Trump.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Le second concerne la continuit\u00e9 des principaux soutiens aux candidats r\u00e9publicains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les secteurs de la cryptomonnaie, de la technologie, de l\u2019armement et des industries fossiles notamment ont d\u00e9pens\u00e9 des centaines de millions de dollars pour faire \u00e9lire des candidats r\u00e9publicains afin de faire valoir leurs int\u00e9r\u00eats au Congr\u00e8s.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ces entreprises ont b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 d\u2019all\u00e9gements fiscaux, de contrats publics, de fusions, de d\u00e9r\u00e9gulations et de gr\u00e2ces pr\u00e9sidentielles accord\u00e9es par Trump.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En pr\u00e9vision d\u2019une victoire d\u00e9mocrate, plusieurs grandes entreprises ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 embaucher d\u2019anciens collaborateurs d\u00e9mocrates afin de renouer des relations avec le parti&#160;: Paramount Skydance a recrut\u00e9 un ancien membre de l\u2019administration Biden&#160;; Palantir et les deux g\u00e9ants des march\u00e9s pr\u00e9dictifs, Polymarket et Kalshi, d\u2019anciens conseillers du parti&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-367989' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/11\/02\/quest-ce-qui-constituerait-une-victoire-democrate-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-367989' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.economist.com\/business\/2026\/10\/27\/american-bosses-are-desperately-trying-to-de-magafy&quot;&gt;American bosses are desperately trying to de-MAGAfy&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Economist&lt;\/em&gt;, 27 octobre 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Le troisi\u00e8me risque concerne l\u2019h\u00e9ritage de l\u2019administration Trump II.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Une majorit\u00e9 dans les deux chambres permettrait aux d\u00e9mocrates de lancer des enqu\u00eates visant Trump, les membres de son administration ainsi que ses \u00ab&#160;repr\u00e9sentants&#160;\u00bb, comme Jared Kushner et Steve Witkoff, qui influencent la politique am\u00e9ricaine et m\u00e8nent des n\u00e9gociations sans avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 confirm\u00e9s par le S\u00e9nat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019une des premi\u00e8res cibles des d\u00e9mocrates serait le secr\u00e9taire \u00e0 la D\u00e9fense, Pete Hegseth, tr\u00e8s critiqu\u00e9 \u2013 par les d\u00e9mocrates mais \u00e9galement par une partie des \u00e9lus r\u00e9publicains \u2013 pour avoir lanc\u00e9 la guerre contre l\u2019Iran, sur ordre de Trump, sans consulter le Congr\u00e8s, pour avoir restreint l\u2019acc\u00e8s des journalistes au Pentagone et pour ne pas avoir fourni de d\u00e9compte complet du co\u00fbt de la guerre. Le r\u00e9publicain Thomas Massie a promis de forcer un vote sur sa mise en accusation d\u00e8s novembre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Parmi les cibles potentielles figurent \u00e9galement le procureur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, Todd Blanche, et le secr\u00e9taire \u00e0 la Sant\u00e9, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump lui-m\u00eame pourrait faire l\u2019objet d\u2019une nouvelle proc\u00e9dure de destitution d\u2019ici la fin de son mandat&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-367989' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/11\/02\/quest-ce-qui-constituerait-une-victoire-democrate-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-367989' title='Annie Grayer et Haley Britzky, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2026\/10\/30\/politics\/pete-hegseth-impeachment-democrats&quot;&gt;Pete Hegseth\u2019s political future could be on the line if Democrats win the House&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;CNN&lt;\/em&gt;, 30 octobre 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>La Maison-Blanche se pr\u00e9pare au moins depuis le mois d\u2019avril \u00e0 une \u00e9ventuelle d\u00e9faite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stephen Miller, le chef de cabinet adjoint de Trump, et Russell Vought, le directeur du budget, auraient notamment identifi\u00e9 plusieurs mesures ex\u00e9cutives que Trump pourrait mettre en \u0153uvre sans passer par le Congr\u00e8s en mati\u00e8re d\u2019immigration, de droits de douane, de logement et de d\u00e9penses f\u00e9d\u00e9rales&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-367989' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/11\/02\/quest-ce-qui-constituerait-une-victoire-democrate-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-367989' title='Nandita Bose et Tim Reid, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/legal\/government\/trump-white-house-maps-path-govern-without-congress-if-democrats-win-2026-11-01\/&quot;&gt;Trump White House maps path to govern without Congress if Democrats win&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Reuters&lt;\/em&gt;, 1er novembre 2026.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les juristes de la Maison-Blanche auraient \u00e9galement donn\u00e9 des consignes aux personnes nomm\u00e9es \u00e0 des postes politiques et aux directeurs d\u2019agence sur la mani\u00e8re de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 d\u2019\u00e9ventuelles citations \u00e0 compara\u00eetre et demandes de documents.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trump lui-m\u00eame pourrait invoquer son privil\u00e8ge ex\u00e9cutif afin de soustraire au Congr\u00e8s ses communications avec des conseillers priv\u00e9s&#160;: la Maison-Blanche aurait demand\u00e9 en ce sens un avis juridique au d\u00e9partement de la Justice.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quatre sc\u00e9narios et trois perspectives pour pr\u00e9parer l\u2019apr\u00e8s-<em>midterms<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":367995,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":5,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2980],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-367989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-ameriques"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":367995,"excerpt":"Quatre sc\u00e9narios et trois perspectives pour pr\u00e9parer l\u2019apr\u00e8s-<em>midterms<\/em>","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Qu\u2019est-ce qui constituerait une victoire d\u00e9mocrate aux \u00e9lections de mi-mandat ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/11\/02\/quest-ce-qui-constituerait-une-victoire-democrate-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Qu\u2019est-ce qui constituerait une victoire d\u00e9mocrate aux \u00e9lections de mi-mandat ?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Quatre sc\u00e9narios et trois perspectives pour pr\u00e9parer l\u2019apr\u00e8s-midterms\" \/>\n<meta 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