{"id":364475,"date":"2026-10-16T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=364475"},"modified":"2026-10-16T03:47:16","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T01:47:16","slug":"la-chine-ment-elle-sur-son-nombre-dhabitants","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/la-chine-ment-elle-sur-son-nombre-dhabitants\/","title":{"rendered":"La Chine ment-elle sur son nombre d\u2019habitants&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Dans une \u00e9tude r\u00e9cente, le d\u00e9mographe Yi Fuxian, auteur du livre <em>Big Country With an Empty Nest<\/em>, critique de la politique de l\u2019enfant unique et interdit en Chine en 2007, estime que la population r\u00e9elle du pays en 2020 se situait plut\u00f4t aux alentours de 1,27 milliard, et non pas 1,412 milliard comme l\u2019annon\u00e7ait le recensement officiel&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-364475' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/la-chine-ment-elle-sur-son-nombre-dhabitants\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-364475' title='Yi Fuxian, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/chinareview.org\/files\/asset-57a85d198e7d486d8ff87b69e7c3cf80&quot;&gt;China&amp;rsquo;s Population Data Manipulation&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Contemporary China Review&lt;\/em&gt;, Vol. 8, p.2-92, 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cet \u00e9cart d\u2019environ 140 millions d\u2019habitants, soit \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s la population de la Russie, pourrait avoir d\u2019importantes implications pour les perspectives du pays, et notamment pour son mod\u00e8le de croissance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De plus, la Chine a une dette massive dont le service devrait repr\u00e9senter plus de 19&#160;% du budget du gouvernement central cette ann\u00e9e, soit 7 points de plus qu\u2019en 2014.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Yjrj0\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Plusieurs faisceaux d\u2019indices sugg\u00e8rent que les statistiques officielles gonflent artificiellement la population du pays, et ce depuis le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1990.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Yi note que le gouvernement a approuv\u00e9 la distribution d\u2019environ 5,8 millions de flacons par an de vaccin BCG contre la tuberculose, obligatoire pour chaque nouveau-n\u00e9, entre 2018 et 2020.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or, avec pr\u00e8s de 14 millions de naissances par an en moyenne, selon P\u00e9kin, entre 9 et 13 millions de flacons auraient \u00e9t\u00e9 n\u00e9cessaires&#160;: en effet, chaque flacon ne permet en pratique de vacciner qu\u2019environ 1,1 \u00e0 1,6 nouveau-n\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De m\u00eame, Yi observe que la taille de la cohorte d\u2019enfants n\u00e9s en 2000 s\u2019est consid\u00e9rablement r\u00e9duite quinze ans plus tard, passant de 17,7 millions de naissances selon les statistiques officielles \u00e0 14,2 millions de dipl\u00f4m\u00e9s du coll\u00e8ge en 2015, alors m\u00eame que la scolarit\u00e9 y est obligatoire&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-364475' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/16\/la-chine-ment-elle-sur-son-nombre-dhabitants\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-364475' title='Lingling Wei, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/a-demographic-mirage-may-be-distorting-chinas-economic-ambitions-adf0bc92&quot;&gt;A Demographic Mirage May Be Distorting China\u2019s Economic Ambitions&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Wall Street Journal&lt;\/em&gt;, 13 octobre 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Plusieurs acteurs auraient pu avoir un int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 gonfler les statistiques d\u00e9mographiques&#160;: les collectivit\u00e9s locales, afin d\u2019obtenir des financements plus importants de l\u2019administration centrale, le Bureau national des statistiques (BNS) et la Commission du planning familial, afin de l\u00e9gitimer le maintien de la politique de l\u2019enfant unique, mais aussi le pouvoir lui-m\u00eame, pour qui une correction \u00e0 la baisse des chiffres de la population aurait pu avoir des cons\u00e9quences politiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/1hsVB\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La correction de d\u00e9cennies de sur\u00e9valuation de la population pourrait toutefois conduire P\u00e9kin \u00e0 revoir \u00e0 la baisse ses ambitions g\u00e9opolitiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Yi estime en effet que, si l\u2019indice synth\u00e9tique de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 de la Chine se stabilise autour de 0,8 \u2013 contre moins de 1 actuellement selon lui \u2013, la population du pays devrait conna\u00eetre une contraction sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Chine passerait de 1,4 milliard d\u2019habitants actuellement, selon les statistiques officielles, \u00e0 1 milliard d\u2019ici 2050 puis 620 millions en 2075. En 2100, le pays ne compterait plus que 320 millions de personnes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Elle serait alors moins peupl\u00e9e que les \u00c9tats-Unis (environ 420 millions d\u2019habitants en 2100, selon les projections des Nations unies) et que l\u2019Europe (environ 470 millions, hors Russie).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon Yi Fuxian, la population chinoise pourrait tomber \u00e0 320 millions en 2100<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":364478,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1926],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[531],"class_list":["post-364475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-demographie","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-chine"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":364478,"excerpt":"Selon Yi Fuxian, la population chinoise pourrait tomber \u00e0 320 millions en 2100","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO 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