{"id":364015,"date":"2026-10-13T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=364015"},"modified":"2026-10-13T01:42:22","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T23:42:22","slug":"au-rythme-actuel-la-france-deviendrait-le-pays-le-plus-endette-de-lunion-au-cours-des-annees-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/13\/au-rythme-actuel-la-france-deviendrait-le-pays-le-plus-endette-de-lunion-au-cours-des-annees-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"Au rythme actuel, la France deviendrait le pays le plus endett\u00e9 de l\u2019Union au cours des ann\u00e9es 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Les d\u00e9bats \u00e0 l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e nationale portant sur le projet de loi de finances pour 2027 commencent aujourd\u2019hui, mardi 13 octobre. Ces discussions seront cruciales pour les perspectives \u00e9conomiques, \u00e0 quelques mois de l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La France est actuellement le troisi\u00e8me \u00c9tat membre de l\u2019Union le plus endett\u00e9 en proportion de son PIB.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Au premier trimestre 2026, la dette s\u2019\u00e9levait \u00e0 118&#160;% du PIB, soit 21 points de moins que l\u2019Italie, et 26 de moins que la Gr\u00e8ce.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En suivant sa trajectoire actuelle, la France pourrait toutefois devenir l\u2019\u00c9tat membre le plus endett\u00e9 au cours de la prochaine d\u00e9cennie, selon les calculs de la revue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/oucqY\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Ces projections traduisent la situation budg\u00e9taire des pays \u00e0 un instant <em>t<\/em>. Le mod\u00e8le, qui repose sur six sc\u00e9narios de trajectoire, suppose dans sa version centrale que les conditions observ\u00e9es ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es (solde budg\u00e9taire hors int\u00e9r\u00eats, taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat moyen pay\u00e9 sur la dette et croissance du PIB en valeur) restent inchang\u00e9es. Il ne tient donc compte ni des mesures budg\u00e9taires \u00e0 venir, ni des retournements de conjoncture, ni de la hausse progressive du taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat moyen pay\u00e9 sur la dette.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon ces sc\u00e9narios, la France d\u00e9passerait la Gr\u00e8ce d\u00e8s 2028 ou 2029, et l\u2019Italie entre 2033 et 2040, devenant ainsi potentiellement le pays le plus endett\u00e9 de l\u2019Union d\u2019ici sept ans.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En Europe centrale et orientale, plusieurs pays affichent \u00e9galement une nette trajectoire haussi\u00e8re&#160;: la Pologne pourrait voir sa dette rapport\u00e9e au PIB doubler d\u2019ici 2050 (passant de 60&#160;% \u00e0 123&#160;%), la Roumanie atteindrait 113&#160;% de son PIB (contre 59&#160;% en 2025), et la Slovaquie verrait sa dette bondir \u00e0 98&#160;% (37 points de plus qu\u2019en 2025).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La dette allemande pourrait quant \u00e0 elle augmenter de 16 points d\u2019ici 2050, pour atteindre pr\u00e8s de 80&#160;% \u2013 contre environ 64&#160;% en 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/H2eBM\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Fin septembre, Shahin Vall\u00e9e <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/30\/la-dette-francaise-est-en-train-de-decrocher\/\">avertissait<\/a> que la France \u00e9tait entr\u00e9e dans une zone de \u00ab&#160;danger historique&#160;\u00bb pour sa dette.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le spread OAT-Bund, soit la diff\u00e9rence entre le taux auquel la France emprunte \u00e0 10 ans sur les march\u00e9s et celui de l\u2019Allemagne, a atteint 140 points de base d\u00e9but octobre \u2013 une hausse de plus de 60&#160;% en un an.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bien qu\u2019il en soit toujours \u00e9loign\u00e9, le spread se rapproche ainsi de son pic historique atteint en novembre 2011, au plus fort de la crise des dettes souveraines de la zone euro, lorsque celui-ci avait d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les 200 points de base.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Le prix Nobel d\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricain Paul Krugman tient toutefois \u00e0 nuancer&#160;: malgr\u00e9 leur forte hausse, les prix des CDS sur la dette fran\u00e7aise, soit l\u2019assurance contre un d\u00e9faut de paiement, restent tr\u00e8s en de\u00e7\u00e0 de leurs niveaux en Europe du Sud lors de la crise de l\u2019euro, et la probabilit\u00e9 implicite d\u2019un d\u00e9faut fran\u00e7ais dans les cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es n\u2019est que de 1,2&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-364015' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/13\/au-rythme-actuel-la-france-deviendrait-le-pays-le-plus-endette-de-lunion-au-cours-des-annees-2030\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-364015' title='Paul Krugman, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/paulkrugman.substack.com\/p\/whats-the-matter-with-france&quot;&gt;What\u2019s the Matter With France&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;, Substack, 8 octobre 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le pays pourrait ainsi d\u00e9passer l\u2019Italie d\u2019ici sept ans<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":364013,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-364015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":364013,"excerpt":"Le pays pourrait ainsi d\u00e9passer l\u2019Italie d\u2019ici sept ans","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - 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