{"id":362668,"date":"2026-10-04T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-04T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=362668"},"modified":"2026-10-05T08:19:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T06:19:40","slug":"au-bresil-flavio-bolsonaro-en-tete-du-premier-tour","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/04\/au-bresil-flavio-bolsonaro-en-tete-du-premier-tour\/","title":{"rendered":"Au Br\u00e9sil, Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro en t\u00eate du premier tour"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Hier, dimanche 4 octobre, se sont tenues <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/03\/lula-et-bolsonaro-le-bresil-est-nettement-divise-en-deux\/\">les \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles et l\u00e9gislatives br\u00e9siliennes<\/a>, dans un contexte g\u00e9opolitique particuli\u00e8rement tendu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro (PL) est arriv\u00e9 en t\u00eate de la pr\u00e9sidentielle avec 47&#160;% des voix, devant le pr\u00e9sident sortant Lula (45&#160;%). <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Il a d\u00e9jou\u00e9 les sondages, le dernier Datafolha donnait Lula devant, \u00e0 40&#160;% contre 36&#160;%. Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro a proclam\u00e9 hier soir \u00ab&#160;la fin de l&rsquo;\u00e8re du Parti des travailleurs&#160;\u00bb. Nous avons traduit ses d\u00e9clarations\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/05\/flavio-bolsonaro-cest-la-fin-de-lula\/\">ici<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Comme en 2022, l&rsquo;\u00e9cart reste serr\u00e9, mais la dynamique est du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, surtout si le second tour du 25 octobre se transforme en r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum anti-Lula. Depuis 1989, aucun candidat arriv\u00e9 deuxi\u00e8me au premier tour n&rsquo;a remport\u00e9 la pr\u00e9sidentielle au Br\u00e9sil.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Le contexte g\u00e9opolitique reste particuli\u00e8rement tendu en Am\u00e9rique latine et au Br\u00e9sil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Des candidats align\u00e9s sur Trump l&rsquo;ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 emport\u00e9 en Colombie, au Chili et au P\u00e9rou. Sous Lula, le Br\u00e9sil \u00e9tait l&rsquo;un des rares pays \u00e0 r\u00e9sister \u00e0 la \u00ab&#160;doctrine Donroe&#160;\u00bb, malgr\u00e9 des droits de douane am\u00e9ricains allant jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 50&#160;% impos\u00e9s pour peser sur la proc\u00e9dure judiciaire visant Jair Bolsonaro. Si Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro l&#8217;emporte le 25 octobre, le Mexique restera le seul grand pays de la r\u00e9gion dirig\u00e9 par un gouvernement progressiste.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lula avait remport\u00e9 l&rsquo;\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle de justesse en 2022 contre le pr\u00e9sident sortant Jair Bolsonaro. Son mandat a \u00e9t\u00e9 particuli\u00e8rement mouvement\u00e9. Le 8 janvier 2023, une semaine apr\u00e8s son investiture, une tentative de coup d&rsquo;\u00c9tat des partisans de Bolsonaro, \u00e9choue \u00e0 Bras\u00edlia. En septembre 2025, Jair Bolsonaro a \u00e9t\u00e9 condamn\u00e9 \u00e0 27 ans et 3 mois de prison (il est aujourd\u2019hui assign\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9sidence) et son fils a\u00een\u00e9, Fl\u00e1vio, a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9sign\u00e9 pour lui succ\u00e9der.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le retour de Trump au pouvoir a relanc\u00e9 l&rsquo;extr\u00eame droite br\u00e9silienne et, depuis 2025, les relations entre les deux pr\u00e9sidents oscillent entre pressions trumpistes, notamment sur le commerce, et accalmies temporaires.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La gauche a \u00e9galement beaucoup recul\u00e9 dans la r\u00e9gion depuis 2022, et le Br\u00e9sil fait partie des derniers pays dirig\u00e9s par un gouvernement progressiste.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Il s\u2019agit d\u2019un \u00e9l\u00e9ment clef de l\u2019\u00e9lection d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/D6WS9\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Durant la campagne, Lula a continu\u00e9 de d\u00e9fendre les sujets qui l&rsquo;ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 men\u00e9 au pouvoir&#160;: le d\u00e9veloppement \u00e9conomique, la lutte contre la faim, la pauvret\u00e9 et la d\u00e9forestation, avec une volont\u00e9 affich\u00e9e de mener une politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re ind\u00e9pendante, souveraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u00c0 l\u2019oppos\u00e9, Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro reprend pour sa part les th\u00e9matiques ch\u00e8res \u00e0 son p\u00e8re et \u00e0 son camp, telles que la lutte contre la criminalit\u00e9 et la corruption, ainsi que la lib\u00e9ralisation de l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie. Il pr\u00f4ne l&rsquo;alignement sur les \u00c9tats-Unis de Donald Trump et s&rsquo;appuie principalement sur le vote \u00e9vang\u00e9lique.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Un \u00e9l\u00e9ment clef distingue toutefois ce cycle \u00e9lectoral de l&rsquo;\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2022&#160;: l&rsquo;importance accord\u00e9e \u00e0 la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re, qui \u00e9tait quasiment absente lors des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents scrutins.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ainsi, le 25 juillet, Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro avait lanc\u00e9 sa campagne en pr\u00e9sence du pr\u00e9sident argentin Javier Milei, puis avait diffus\u00e9 un message vid\u00e9o du Premier ministre isra\u00e9lien, Benyamin Netanyahou.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie \u00e9galement du soutien de Donald Trump, tout comme son fr\u00e8re Eduardo, particuli\u00e8rement bien introduit dans la sph\u00e8re MAGA depuis 2018.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Condamn\u00e9 pour entrave \u00e0 la proc\u00e9dure judiciaire, Eduardo Bolsonaro vit aux \u00c9tats-Unis depuis 2025 o\u00f9 il a obtenu une r\u00e9sidence permanente. Il influence directement les diff\u00e9rentes d\u00e9cisions de la pr\u00e9sidence Trump \u00e0 l&rsquo;encontre du Br\u00e9sil, comme la mise en place de droits de douane.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le 28 mai, les \u00c9tats-Unis ont d\u00e9sign\u00e9 les deux principaux cartels de narcotrafic br\u00e9siliens, le Comando Vermelho et le Primeiro Comando da Capital, comme des organisations terroristes. Selon plusieurs observateurs, cette d\u00e9cision laisse planer le doute sur une intervention \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 celle qui s&rsquo;est produite au Venezuela en cas de victoire de Lula.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ces d\u00e9cisions ont conduit Bras\u00edlia \u00e0 une extr\u00eame prudence vis-\u00e0-vis de Washington, comme en t\u00e9moigne le refus de d\u00e9livrer des visas \u00e0 Riley Barnes et Samuel Samson, deux diplomates am\u00e9ricains qui devaient rencontrer plusieurs officiels br\u00e9siliens au mois de juillet 2026. Selon le Br\u00e9sil, cette visite visait \u00e0 remettre en question le syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectoral.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Ces derni\u00e8res semaines, les soup\u00e7ons d\u2019ing\u00e9rence am\u00e9ricaine dans la campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle se sont amplifi\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le 30 septembre, les m\u00e9dias br\u00e9siliens ont r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 que l\u2019ABIN (les services de renseignement br\u00e9siliens) avait inform\u00e9 une d\u00e9l\u00e9gation franco-allemande en visite sur place que les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Russie tentaient d&rsquo;interf\u00e9rer dans les \u00e9lections br\u00e9siliennes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le 24 septembre, le Parti des travailleurs de Lula a indiqu\u00e9 que Meta avait bloqu\u00e9 le compte Facebook de Lula et emp\u00each\u00e9 les comptes de campagne du parti de diffuser du contenu politique. Selon Meta, cette mesure serait due \u00e0 la violation des r\u00e8gles de ces plateformes par les comptes concern\u00e9s.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La question \u00e0 suivre lors du scrutin br\u00e9silien pourrait \u00eatre avant tout g\u00e9opolitique<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":362669,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":5,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2980],"tags":[],"staff":[2238],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-362668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","staff-guillaume-cornille","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-ameriques"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":362669,"excerpt":"La question \u00e0 suivre lors du scrutin br\u00e9silien pourrait \u00eatre avant tout g\u00e9opolitique","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - 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