{"id":362600,"date":"2026-10-03T16:16:24","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T14:16:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=362600"},"modified":"2026-10-03T16:16:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T14:16:29","slug":"les-democrates-se-dirigent-ils-vers-une-victoire-ecrasante-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/03\/les-democrates-se-dirigent-ils-vers-une-victoire-ecrasante-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/","title":{"rendered":"Les d\u00e9mocrates se dirigent-ils vers une victoire \u00e9crasante aux \u00e9lections de mi-mandat&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><br>\u00c0 un mois des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat du 3 novembre, alors qu&rsquo;une partie des \u00e9lites MAGA organise d\u00e9j\u00e0 la contestation, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/02\/de-letat-durgence-a-la-loi-martiale-comment-les-cercles-maga-se-preparent-a-contester-une-defaite-lors-des-midterms\/\">y compris violente<\/a>, des r\u00e9sultats, les principaux agr\u00e9gateurs de sondages annoncent une nette victoire des d\u00e9mocrates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nate Silver donne 9 points d&rsquo;avance aux d\u00e9mocrates et 9,6 points si l&rsquo;on ne retient que les \u00e9lecteurs probables&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-362600' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/03\/les-democrates-se-dirigent-ils-vers-une-victoire-ecrasante-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-362600' title='Nate Silver, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls&quot;&gt;Who\u2019s ahead on the generic congressional ballot&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Silver Bulletin&lt;\/em&gt;, 2 octobre 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L&rsquo;agr\u00e9gateur<em> Fifty PlusOne<\/em> donne pr\u00e8s de 8 points d\u2019avance avec 50,8&#160;% aux d\u00e9mocrates contre 43,1&#160;% aux r\u00e9publicains.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ce m\u00eame mod\u00e8le qui agr\u00e8ge tous les sondages publics en les pond\u00e9rant selon plusieurs crit\u00e8res (fiabilit\u00e9, caract\u00e9ristiques des circonscriptions) donne 99&#160;% de chances aux d\u00e9mocrates de reprendre la Chambre des repr\u00e9sentants.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 les red\u00e9coupages territoriaux op\u00e9r\u00e9s par les r\u00e9publicains pour obtenir des avantages dans la comptabilit\u00e9 \u00e9lectorale selon <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/27\/lamerique-na-toujours-pas-cede-a-trump\/\">la m\u00e9thode du <em>gerrymandering<\/em><\/a>, une avance de 3,5 points devrait suffire aux d\u00e9mocrates pour reprendre le contr\u00f4le de la Chambre des repr\u00e9sentants.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les d\u00e9mocrates d\u00e9tenaient 214 si\u00e8ges dans la Chambre sortante. La majorit\u00e9 est de 218 si\u00e8ges sur 435, tous renouvel\u00e9s le 3 novembre.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le mod\u00e8le <em>Fifty PlusOne<\/em> donne aujourd&rsquo;hui les d\u00e9mocrates favoris dans pr\u00e8s de 250 circonscriptions avec 7 restant ind\u00e9cises.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Le S\u00e9nat semble plus disput\u00e9, en partie \u00e0 cause du mode de scrutin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sur les 100 si\u00e8ges, seuls 35 sont en jeu. Le caucus d\u00e9mocrate en d\u00e9tient 47 et doivent en remporter quatre pour atteindre la majorit\u00e9 de 51, le vice-pr\u00e9sident J.D. Vance ayant le pouvoir de d\u00e9partager en cas d&rsquo;\u00e9galit\u00e9 50-50.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selon le mod\u00e8le <em>Fifty PlusOne<\/em>, les d\u00e9mocrates ont 73&#160;% de chances d\u2019obtenir la majorit\u00e9.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selon G. Elliott Morris, le fondateur du mod\u00e8le <em>Fifty PlusOne<\/em> auparavant \u00e0 la t\u00eate du site <em>FiveThirtyEight<\/em>&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Si les d\u00e9mocrates ont 73&#160;% de chances de gagner le S\u00e9nat, ce n&rsquo;est pas gr\u00e2ce aux \u00c9tats les plus disput\u00e9s, mais gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 ceux o\u00f9 ils restent des outsiders.&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-362600' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/03\/les-democrates-se-dirigent-ils-vers-une-victoire-ecrasante-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-362600' title='G. Elliott Morris, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.gelliottmorris.com\/p\/2026-10-01-podcast-episode-thirty-days-check-in&quot;&gt;How much worse can things get for the GOP&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Strength in Numbers&lt;\/em&gt;, 1er octobre 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Caroline du Nord, o\u00f9 l&rsquo;ancien gouverneur d\u00e9mocrate Roy Cooper est favori, voit d\u00e9sormais un \u00e9cart qui d\u00e9passe l&rsquo;erreur statistique. Le Texas, l&rsquo;Ohio, l&rsquo;Iowa et le Maine sont au coude \u00e0 coude, et m\u00eame au Kansas, le candidat d\u00e9mocrate est \u00e0 moins d&rsquo;un demi-point dans les sondages.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Depuis la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale, le parti du pr\u00e9sident a perdu des si\u00e8ges \u00e0 la Chambre des repr\u00e9sentants lors de 18 des 20 \u00e9lections de mi-mandat. Les deux exceptions sont les \u00e9lections de 1998 et 2002, sous la pr\u00e9sidence de deux pr\u00e9sidents extr\u00eamement populaires, ce que Donald Trump n\u2019est pas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le pr\u00e9sident a atteint des niveaux d&rsquo;impopularit\u00e9 sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Plusieurs instituts ont enregistr\u00e9 cette semaine son plus bas niveau dans les sondages, tous mandats confondus&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-362600' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/03\/les-democrates-se-dirigent-ils-vers-une-victoire-ecrasante-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-362600' title='Sara Dorn, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/saradorn\/2026\/10\/02\/trumps-approval-rating-on-the-economy-hits-all-time-low-in-2-polls-this-week&quot;&gt;Trump&amp;rsquo;s Approval Rating On The Economy Hits All-Time Low In 2 Polls This Week&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Forbes&lt;\/em&gt;, 2 octobre 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selon une enqu\u00eate r\u00e9alis\u00e9e il y a un mois, un \u00e9lecteur de Trump sur cinq regrette d\u00e9sormais son vote&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-362600' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/03\/les-democrates-se-dirigent-ils-vers-une-victoire-ecrasante-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-362600' title='Tina Tang, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/navigatorresearch.org\/feeling-duped-trump-voters-go-from-hope-to-regret\/&quot;&gt;Feeling Duped&amp;#160;: Trump Voters Go From Hope to Regret&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Navigator Research&lt;\/em&gt;, 3 septembre 2026.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Les \u00e9lecteurs <em>latinos<\/em>, qui s&rsquo;\u00e9taient tourn\u00e9s vers Trump en 2024, reviennent vers les d\u00e9mocrates, notamment au Texas et en Floride.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, 60&#160;% des r\u00e9publicains d\u00e9sapprouvent sa mani\u00e8re de gouverner et les cons\u00e9quences sur le co\u00fbt de la vie, contre environ 50&#160;% en avril&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-362600' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/03\/les-democrates-se-dirigent-ils-vers-une-victoire-ecrasante-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-362600' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.boston25news.com\/news\/business\/most-americans-blame\/H4FNG2JTX47M7LFFET6GZCV4WQ\/&quot;&gt;AP-NORC poll&amp;#160;: Trump economic approval hits new low among Republicans&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Associated Press&lt;\/em&gt;, 1er octobre 2026.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Si la dynamique semble claire, la question qui se pose est cependant plus large. Les sondages sont-ils encore fiables aux \u00c9tats-Unis&#160;? Dans un entretien paru aujourd\u2019hui avec le prix Nobel de l\u2019\u00e9conomie Paul Krugman G. Elliott Morris invite \u00e0 la prudence&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-362600' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/03\/les-democrates-se-dirigent-ils-vers-une-victoire-ecrasante-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-362600' title='Paul Krugman, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/paulkrugman.substack.com\/p\/the-midterms&quot;&gt;The Midterms&amp;#160;! Talking with G. Elliott Morris and David Nir&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Substack&lt;\/em&gt;, 3 octobre 2026.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La mani\u00e8re de r\u00e9aliser des sondages a beaucoup \u00e9volu\u00e9 ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Les instituts ont largement d\u00e9laiss\u00e9 le t\u00e9l\u00e9phone, auquel presque plus personne ne r\u00e9pond, pour se tourner vers les panels en ligne. Pourtant, comme le rappelle Morris, \u00ab&#160;le grand probl\u00e8me des sondages, c\u2019est que ceux qui r\u00e9pondent ne ressemblent pas du tout \u00e0 ceux qui ne r\u00e9pondent pas&#160;\u00bb. Les instituts ajustent leurs \u00e9chantillons en fonction de l\u2019\u00e2ge ou du revenu, mais ils ne peuvent pas d\u00e9terminer combien d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs de chaque camp devraient y \u00eatre repr\u00e9sent\u00e9s.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consid\u00e9r\u00e9 isol\u00e9ment, aucun sondage ne suffit donc \u00e0 capturer une dynamique \u00e9lectorale. C\u2019est pourquoi les principaux mod\u00e8les les comparent aux r\u00e9sultats de vote r\u00e9els. Cette ann\u00e9e, les primaires du Parti d\u00e9mocrate ont attir\u00e9 beaucoup plus d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs que celles du Parti r\u00e9publicain, un \u00e9cart nettement plus favorable qu\u2019en 2022.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En comparant le rapport de forces observ\u00e9 dans les primaires de 2026 \u00e0 la relation historique entre participation aux primaires et vote populaire \u00e0 la Chambre, Daniel Donner estime que cet indicateur correspondrait \u00e0 une avance d\u00e9mocrate d\u2019environ 13 points en novembre, soit une marge sup\u00e9rieure aux 8 points indiqu\u00e9s par les sondages et l&rsquo;une des pires d\u00e9faites de l&rsquo;histoire du Parti r\u00e9publicain&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-7-362600' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/03\/les-democrates-se-dirigent-ils-vers-une-victoire-ecrasante-aux-elections-de-mi-mandat\/#easy-footnote-bottom-7-362600' title='&lt;em&gt;Ibid&lt;\/em&gt;.'><sup>7<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c0 un mois du scrutin du 3 novembre, les sondages sont presque unanimes et Donald Trump semble faire l\u2019objet d\u2019un rejet historique<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":362601,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":5,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2980],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-362600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-ameriques"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":362601,"excerpt":"\u00c0 un mois du scrutin du 3 novembre, les sondages sont presque unanimes et Donald Trump semble faire l\u2019objet d\u2019un rejet historique","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - 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