{"id":362467,"date":"2026-10-02T15:17:20","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T13:17:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=362467"},"modified":"2026-10-02T15:29:54","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T13:29:54","slug":"en-ukraine-loperation-vivaldi-redessine-le-front","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/02\/en-ukraine-loperation-vivaldi-redessine-le-front\/","title":{"rendered":"En Ukraine, l\u2019op\u00e9ration \u00ab&#160;Vivaldi&#160;\u00bb redessine le front"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Selon l\u2019Institute for the Study of War (ISW), l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe a pris le contr\u00f4le de 176 km\u00b2 de territoire ukrainien au cours du mois de septembre, mais a perdu 256 km\u00b2, soit une perte nette de 81 km\u00b2&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-362467' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/02\/en-ukraine-loperation-vivaldi-redessine-le-front\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-362467' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/understandingwar.org\/research\/russia-ukraine\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-1-2026\/&quot;&gt;Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 1, 2026&lt;\/a&gt;, Institute for the Study of War.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. En 2025, au cours de la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, Moscou s\u2019\u00e9tait empar\u00e9 de 330 km\u00b2 de territoire en Ukraine.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les chiffres de septembre compil\u00e9s par l\u2019ISW tiennent compte de la progression de l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne r\u00e9alis\u00e9e dans le cadre de <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/16\/larmee-ukrainienne-mene-a-lyman-sa-deuxieme-contre-offensive-majeure-de-lannee\/\">l\u2019op\u00e9ration \u00ab&#160;Vivaldi&#160;\u00bb<\/a>, lanc\u00e9e en mai dans le secteur de Lyman.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On observe toutefois une nette diminution du rythme de progression russe depuis le mois de mars, qui est rest\u00e9 faible voire n\u00e9gatif depuis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les donn\u00e9es de Deep State, un groupe d&rsquo;analystes ukrainiens, montrent quant \u00e0 elles une progression russe nette de 66 km\u00b2 en septembre.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/BokkF\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si l\u2019op\u00e9ration Vivaldi n\u2019a ainsi pas mis fin \u00e0 la progression russe \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle du front, elle pourrait toutefois avoir des implications majeures pour la campagne russe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Mercredi 30 septembre, un blogueur militaire proche du Kremlin a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que la situation pour Moscou se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorait non seulement \u00e0 Lyman, o\u00f9 l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe a perdu du terrain ces derniers mois, mais \u00e9galement dans la direction de Sloviansk&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-362467' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/02\/en-ukraine-loperation-vivaldi-redessine-le-front\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-362467' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/t.me\/rybar\/83612&quot;&gt;Publication sur Telegram de \u0420\u044b\u0431\u0430\u0440\u044c&lt;\/a&gt;, 30 septembre 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Celui-ci note que les forces ukrainiennes sont parvenues \u00ab&#160;\u00e0 s&rsquo;implanter dans la r\u00e9gion de Dibrova et d&rsquo;Ozernoye&#160;\u00bb, au nord de la rivi\u00e8re Siverskyi Donets, ce qui pourrait compromettre la capacit\u00e9 de Moscou \u00e0 encercler la \u00ab&#160;ceinture de forteresses&#160;\u00bb qui lie Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk et Sloviansk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/YMdtS\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019arm\u00e9e russe parvient toujours \u00e0 avancer dans certains secteurs du front, notamment dans le centre de l\u2019oblast de Donetsk et dans la direction de Kharkiv, selon le cabinet de conseil Rochan Consulting&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-362467' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/02\/en-ukraine-loperation-vivaldi-redessine-le-front\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-362467' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/x.com\/konrad_muzyka\/status\/2105741758671859921&quot;&gt;Publication sur X de Konrad Muzyka&lt;\/a&gt;, 1er octobre 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. L\u2019ISW note \u00e9galement une progression russe dans le Sud de l\u2019Ukraine. Cette progression se fait toutefois \u00e0 un prix consid\u00e9rable&#160;: l\u2019\u00e9tat-major des forces arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes a recens\u00e9 plus de 46 000 pertes russes pour le mois de septembre, contre moins de 32 000 en janvier, soit une hausse de 46&#160;%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019arm\u00e9e russe a historiquement r\u00e9alis\u00e9 d\u2019importantes avanc\u00e9es lors de l\u2019automne&#160;: elle avait progress\u00e9 de 730 km\u00b2 en novembre 2024, et de 505 km\u00b2 en novembre 2025, selon Deep State.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La chute du feuillage des arbres \u00e0 l\u2019automne a toutefois pour cons\u00e9quence de fournir moins de couverture aux troupes au sol, ce qui facilite le travail de ciblage des op\u00e9rateurs de drones ukrainiens.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans une note produite par Sberbank publi\u00e9e fin ao\u00fbt par le groupe de hackers Black Mirror, la banque \u00e9valuait \u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/26\/la-russie-na-que-7-de-chances-de-remporter-la-guerre-les-huit-scenarios-dresses-par-sberbank\/\">seulement 7&#160;%<\/a> la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une victoire d\u00e9cisive russe. Le document lisait&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Sans mobilisation, il n\u2019y a pas d\u2019hommes. Sans solution au probl\u00e8me de la d\u00e9fense a\u00e9rienne de l\u2019arri\u00e8re, les frappes contre les infrastructures se poursuivront. Ces \u2018sans\u2019 rendent ce sc\u00e9nario peu probable, mais pas impossible&#160;: n\u2019importe lequel de ces facteurs peut changer sur d\u00e9cision du commandant en chef supr\u00eame&#160;\u00bb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Moscou a enregistr\u00e9 en septembre ses pertes les plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es de l\u2019ann\u00e9e<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":362465,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-362467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":362465,"excerpt":"Moscou a enregistr\u00e9 en septembre ses pertes les plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es de l\u2019ann\u00e9e","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>En Ukraine, l\u2019op\u00e9ration \u00abVivaldi\u00bb redessine le front<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/02\/en-ukraine-loperation-vivaldi-redessine-le-front\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"En Ukraine, l\u2019op\u00e9ration \u00abVivaldi\u00bb redessine le front\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Moscou a enregistr\u00e9 en septembre ses pertes les plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es de l\u2019ann\u00e9e\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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