{"id":362295,"date":"2026-10-02T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=362295"},"modified":"2026-10-02T07:03:38","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T05:03:38","slug":"le-blocage-du-detroit-dormuz-redessine-le-pouvoir-de-marche-de-lopep","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/02\/le-blocage-du-detroit-dormuz-redessine-le-pouvoir-de-marche-de-lopep\/","title":{"rendered":"La fermeture du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz redessine le pouvoir de march\u00e9 de l\u2019OPEP+"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Le choc provoqu\u00e9 par la fermeture du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz sur l\u2019offre mondiale de p\u00e9trole est survenu au pire moment pour l\u2019OPEP+, qui venait de desserrer ses quotas pour regagner des parts de march\u00e9, avec pr\u00e8s de 2,9 millions de barils par jour suppl\u00e9mentaires sur l\u2019ann\u00e9e, au d\u00e9but de la guerre en Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En 2002, la capacit\u00e9 de r\u00e9serve de l&rsquo;OPEP repr\u00e9sentait 14,5&#160;% de la production mondiale de p\u00e9trole brut. Un an plus tard, apr\u00e8s la gr\u00e8ve p\u00e9troli\u00e8re au Venezuela et l&rsquo;invasion de l&rsquo;Irak, elle \u00e9tait tomb\u00e9e \u00e0 2,3&#160;%, et n&rsquo;a depuis jamais retrouv\u00e9 durablement son niveau ant\u00e9rieur.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Elle repr\u00e9sentait 4,3&#160;% en 2025 et \u00e0 peine 1&#160;% au cours des sept premiers mois de 2026&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-362295' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/02\/le-blocage-du-detroit-dormuz-redessine-le-pouvoir-de-marche-de-lopep\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-362295' title='Adrian Forest et Cl\u00e9mence Melli, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/gtpo.eu\/en\/publications\/from-production-to-logistics-how-the-hormuz-crisis-affects-opec-s-market-power&quot;&gt;From production to logistics&amp;#160;: how the Hormuz Crisis affects OPEC&amp;rsquo;s market power&lt;\/a&gt;, GTPO, 22 septembre 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/P51Tx\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les exportations du Golfe sont tomb\u00e9es presque \u00e0 z\u00e9ro quelques jours apr\u00e8s la fermeture du d\u00e9troit, et sont rest\u00e9es \u00e0 ce niveau pendant pr\u00e8s de trois mois.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>M\u00eame apr\u00e8s la conclusion d\u2019un protocole d\u2019accord le 17 juin entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l&rsquo;Iran, celles-ci n\u2019ont pas retrouv\u00e9 la moiti\u00e9 de leur niveau d\u2019avant-crise.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour mesurer cette tendance, nous pouvons nous int\u00e9resser \u00e0 un nouvel indicateur&#160;: la capacit\u00e9 de r\u00e9serve exportable, soit les barils pouvant r\u00e9ellement atteindre le march\u00e9. En 2026, elle ne d\u00e9passera pas 0,4 million de barils par jour pour l\u2019Arabie saoudite, et 0,2 million pour l\u2019Irak. Pour le Kowe\u00eft, elle est nulle, car en l&rsquo;absence d&rsquo;infrastructures terrestres, ses 0,4 million de barils par jour de r\u00e9serve sont enti\u00e8rement bloqu\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/zdmcx\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019Arabie saoudite dispose de la principale voie de contournement de la r\u00e9gion&#160;: l\u2019ol\u00e9oduc Est-Ouest, long de 1 200 km, qui relie le complexe d\u2019Abqaiq au terminal de Yanbu, sur la mer Rouge. Avant le d\u00e9but de la guerre, il transportait moins d\u2019un million de barils par jour, pour une capacit\u00e9 port\u00e9e \u00e0 7 millions. Cependant, les quais de Yanbu ne peuvent charger qu\u2019environ 4 \u00e0 4,5 millions de barils par jour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En juin, les chargements plafonnaient \u00e0 4,1 millions de barils par jour et Yanbu assurait 92&#160;% des exportations maritimes du royaume. Une fois charg\u00e9, le p\u00e9trole brut doit encore \u00eatre achemin\u00e9 par le d\u00e9troit de Bab el-Mandeb pour atteindre l\u2019Asie.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En juillet, les menaces houthistes ont contraint certaines cargaisons \u00e0 remonter par le canal de Suez, que les plus gros p\u00e9troliers ne peuvent emprunter \u00e0 pleine charge.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le 11 septembre, des frappes de drones ont endommag\u00e9 l\u2019ol\u00e9oduc Est-Ouest et forc\u00e9 sa fermeture.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Riyad a relanc\u00e9 l\u2019ol\u00e9oduc Est-Ouest le 22 septembre, \u00e0 d\u00e9bit r\u00e9duit, et le retour \u00e0 la normale pourrait prendre six \u00e0 huit semaines.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En Irak, Bagdad et Damas ont sign\u00e9 en juillet, sous l\u2019\u00e9gide de Washington, un accord pour r\u00e9habiliter l\u2019ol\u00e9oduc Kirkouk-Banias vers la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e, dont les travaux pourraient durer jusqu\u2019\u00e0 trois ans.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/A1vUX\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des \u00c9mirats arabes unis, la capacit\u00e9 de l\u2019ol\u00e9oduc reliant Habshan \u00e0 Fujairah est plus r\u00e9duite, il transportait environ 1,5 million de barils par jour avant le d\u00e9but de la guerre, pour une capacit\u00e9 maximale d\u2019environ 1,8 million.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Il pr\u00e9sente toutefois un avantage d\u00e9cisif, car Fujairah donne directement sur le golfe d\u2019Oman, sans qu&rsquo;il soit n\u00e9cessaire de franchir un goulet d&rsquo;\u00e9tranglement.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Abu Dhabi National Oil Company pr\u00e9voit ainsi d\u2019accro\u00eetre fortement sa capacit\u00e9, tandis que les \u00c9mirats arabes unis visent une production de 5 millions de barils par jour.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour d\u00e9terminer quels producteurs peuvent r\u00e9ellement reconstruire des capacit\u00e9s exportables, nous avons \u00e9tabli un indice d\u2019adaptabilit\u00e9 portant sur 22 pays de l\u2019OPEP+. Celui-ci repose sur cinq indicateurs&#160;: les finances, la gouvernance, les infrastructures, la g\u00e9ographie et l&rsquo;exposition aux goulet d&rsquo;\u00e9tranglement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les \u00c9mirats arabes unis arrivent en t\u00eate de ce classement.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00c0 l\u2019oppos\u00e9, le Kowe\u00eft, malgr\u00e9 son fonds souverain qui d\u00e9passe 1 000 milliards de dollars, a beaucoup moins de marge de man\u0153uvre, l&rsquo;ensemble de ses exportations transitant par le d\u00e9troit d&rsquo;Ormuz.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Russie illustre un autre cas&#160;: malgr\u00e9 le fait que ses capacit\u00e9s d&rsquo;exportations sont r\u00e9parties entre terminaux et ol\u00e9oducs terrestres, les sanctions et la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de ses infrastructures par les frappes ukrainiennes r\u00e9duisent sa capacit\u00e9 d\u2019adaptation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Ainsi, la r\u00e9serve nominale ne permet plus de mesurer le pouvoir de march\u00e9 de l\u2019OPEP+. Dans le nouveau contexte g\u00e9opolitique, la part de barils qui peut r\u00e9ellement atteindre les acheteurs devient beaucoup plus importante. Cette \u00e9volution fragilise la logique des quotas sur laquelle l\u2019organisation fonctionne, car les producteurs peuvent \u00eatre incit\u00e9s \u00e0 se concurrencer sur leurs infrastructures d\u2019exportation plut\u00f4t que d&rsquo;accepter des plafonds pr\u00e9-d\u00e9finis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En 2002, la capacit\u00e9 de r\u00e9serve de l\u2019OPEP, soit la production qu\u2019un pays peut remettre sur le march\u00e9 en 30 \u00e0 90 jours, puis maintenir, repr\u00e9sentait 14,5&#160;% de la production mondiale de brut. Sur les sept premiers mois de 2026, elle ne repr\u00e9sentait plus que 1&#160;%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":362317,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":4,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3468],"tags":[],"staff":[5188,5190],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[530],"class_list":["post-362295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-donnees-qui-changent-la-donne","staff-adrian-forest","staff-clemence-melli","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-asie-intermediaire"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":362317,"excerpt":"En 2002, la capacit\u00e9 de r\u00e9serve de l\u2019OPEP, soit la production qu\u2019un pays peut remettre sur le march\u00e9 en 30 \u00e0 90 jours, puis maintenir, repr\u00e9sentait 14,5 % de la production mondiale de brut. Sur les sept premiers mois de 2026, elle ne repr\u00e9sentait plus que 1 %.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Le blocage du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz redessine le pouvoir de march\u00e9 de l\u2019OPEP+<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/02\/le-blocage-du-detroit-dormuz-redessine-le-pouvoir-de-marche-de-lopep\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le blocage du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz redessine le pouvoir de march\u00e9 de l\u2019OPEP+\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"En 2002, la capacit\u00e9 de r\u00e9serve de l\u2019OPEP, soit la production qu\u2019un pays peut remettre sur le march\u00e9 en 30 \u00e0 90 jours, puis maintenir, repr\u00e9sentait 14,5&#160;% de la production mondiale de brut. Sur les sept premiers mois de 2026, elle ne repr\u00e9sentait plus que 1&#160;%.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/02\/le-blocage-du-detroit-dormuz-redessine-le-pouvoir-de-marche-de-lopep\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-02T04:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-02T05:03:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Sans-titre.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2288\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1286\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ramona Bloj\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" 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