{"id":361019,"date":"2026-10-01T16:43:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T14:43:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=361019"},"modified":"2026-10-01T16:57:09","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T14:57:09","slug":"pourquoi-trump-refuse-de-ralentir-le-developpement-de-lia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/pourquoi-trump-refuse-de-ralentir-le-developpement-de-lia\/","title":{"rendered":"Pourquoi Trump refuse de ralentir le d\u00e9veloppement de l\u2019IA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Selon une \u00e9tude pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e le 25 septembre, l&rsquo;investissement cumul\u00e9 aux \u00c9tats-Unis dans les infrastructures de l&rsquo;intelligence artificielle pourrait atteindre 10 300 milliards de dollars sur la p\u00e9riode 2025-2032, soit 3,6&#160;% du PIB en moyenne chaque ann\u00e9e. \u00c0 la fin de cette p\u00e9riode, en 2032, ces investissements repr\u00e9senteraient 5,1&#160;% du PIB&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-361019' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/pourquoi-trump-refuse-de-ralentir-le-developpement-de-lia\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-361019' title='Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/4c_Van-Nieuwerburgh.pdf&quot;&gt;Financing the AI Buildout&lt;\/a&gt;, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 25 septembre 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C&rsquo;est pr\u00e8s de 2 points de plus que les d\u00e9penses de d\u00e9fense, estim\u00e9es \u00e0 3,2&#160;% du PIB en 2026&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-361019' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/pourquoi-trump-refuse-de-ralentir-le-developpement-de-lia\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-361019' title='Mike Dolan, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/commentary\/reuters-open-interest\/8-trillion-arms-surge-fuelling-ai-spooking-bonds-mike-dolan-2026-09-30\/&quot;&gt;The $8 trillion arms surge fuelling AI \u2014 and spooking bonds&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Reuters&lt;\/em&gt;, 30 septembre 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le boom de l\u2019intelligence artificielle est sans commune mesure avec les investissements r\u00e9alis\u00e9s lors des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents grands cycles d&rsquo;infrastructures aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les chemins de fer avaient repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 en moyenne 2,2&#160;% du PIB par an entre 1870 et 1890, l&rsquo;\u00e9lectrification 0,5&#160;% entre 1905 et 1925, les autoroutes 1,1&#160;% entre 1956 et 1973, et la fibre et les t\u00e9l\u00e9communications 1,1&#160;% sur la p\u00e9riode 1996-2003.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/rEFFb\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Ces investissements serviront \u00e0 construire les infrastructures physiques n\u00e9cessaires au d\u00e9veloppement de la technologie&#160;: centres de donn\u00e9es (b\u00e2timents, syst\u00e8mes de refroidissement), infrastructures \u00e9lectriques de raccordement et, pour environ les deux tiers, mat\u00e9riel informatique. Les hyperscalers consacrent en effet des sommes consid\u00e9rables \u00e0 l&rsquo;achat de puces, dont la dur\u00e9e de vie \u00e9conomique est pourtant estim\u00e9e \u00e0 cinq ou six ans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les grandes entreprises technologiques am\u00e9ricaines ne peuvent pas assumer seules ces financements.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Plus de la moiti\u00e9 proviendra ainsi de capitaux ext\u00e9rieurs (investisseurs en fonds propres, march\u00e9s obligataires, banques et cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9), ce qui a pour cons\u00e9quence de disperser les risques potentiels \u00e0 travers le syst\u00e8me financier, jusqu&rsquo;aux fonds de pension&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-361019' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/pourquoi-trump-refuse-de-ralentir-le-developpement-de-lia\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-361019' title='Courtenay Brown, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/09\/24\/ai-private-credit-capital-grab&quot;&gt;AI&amp;rsquo;s never-before-seen capital grab&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Axios&lt;\/em&gt;, 24 septembre 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Selon une analyse de deux \u00e9conomistes de Stanford, Jared Bernstein et Ryan Cummings, pour rentabiliser les investissements dans l&rsquo;IA r\u00e9alis\u00e9s depuis 2024 par Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle et SpaceX, ces entreprises devraient g\u00e9n\u00e9rer entre 2 400 et 3 800 milliards de dollars de revenus tir\u00e9s de l&rsquo;IA sur les six prochaines ann\u00e9es, ce qui suppose une multiplication de leurs revenus actuels li\u00e9s \u00e0 l&rsquo;IA par 13 \u00e0 45&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-361019' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/pourquoi-trump-refuse-de-ralentir-le-developpement-de-lia\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-361019' title='Jared Bernstein et Ryan Cummings, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/econjared.substack.com\/p\/ai-companies-are-in-a-race-against&quot;&gt;AI Companies Are In a Race Against Time&lt;\/a&gt;, 25 septembre 2026.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/RUt9d\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les retours sur investissement pourraient toutefois se concr\u00e9tiser plus tardivement qu\u2019anticip\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Berstein et Cummings \u00e9crivent&#160;: \u00ab&#160;La diffusion d\u2019une nouvelle technologie exige non seulement que les entreprises l\u2019adoptent, mais aussi qu\u2019elles d\u00e9terminent comment l\u2019int\u00e9grer au mieux dans leurs processus de travail existants, un processus qui peut prendre un temps consid\u00e9rable. Par exemple, en 1900, seuls 5&#160;% de la puissance m\u00e9canique \u00e9taient \u00e9lectrifi\u00e9s. Il a fallu attendre encore 30 ans pour atteindre un taux d\u2019adoption de 80&#160;%&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Donald Trump consid\u00e8re que la domination am\u00e9ricaine de l\u2019IA pourrait constituer l\u2019un des principaux h\u00e9ritages de son second mandat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Mardi 29 septembre, \u00e0 la Maison-Blanche, il a fait signer par OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, xAI et Nvidia un accord par lequel ces entreprises s&rsquo;engagent volontairement \u00e0 s&rsquo;autor\u00e9guler.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le document se contente d&rsquo;\u00e9voquer la possibilit\u00e9, \u00ab&#160;\u00e0 terme&#160;\u00bb, d&rsquo;inscrire ces engagements dans la loi ou la r\u00e9glementation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019avenir de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine est d\u00e9sormais li\u00e9 \u00e0 la technologie<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":361149,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3412],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-361019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-puissances-de-lia","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-ameriques"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":361149,"excerpt":"L\u2019avenir de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine est d\u00e9sormais li\u00e9 \u00e0 la technologie","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site 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