{"id":360820,"date":"2026-10-01T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=360820"},"modified":"2026-10-01T00:04:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T22:04:11","slug":"la-guerre-des-villes-la-doctrine-russe-pour-devaster-lukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/la-guerre-des-villes-la-doctrine-russe-pour-devaster-lukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"La guerre des villes&#160;: la doctrine russe pour d\u00e9vaster l\u2019Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>L\u2019intensification des attaques contre des <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/13\/en-ukraine-et-en-russie-la-multiplication-des-attaques-aeriennes-alourdit-le-bilan-civil\/\">cibles civiles<\/a> est une tendance quantifiable de la guerre men\u00e9e par la Russie contre l\u2019Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon la mission de l&rsquo;ONU en Ukraine, au moins 200 civils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 tu\u00e9s et 1 234 bless\u00e9s entre le 1er et le 24 septembre 2026. \u00c0 Kiev, des attaques contre des civils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 recens\u00e9es 16 jours sur 24, une fr\u00e9quence \u00ab&#160;jamais enregistr\u00e9e dans la capitale depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-360820' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/la-guerre-des-villes-la-doctrine-russe-pour-devaster-lukraine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-360820' title='Mission de surveillance des droits de l&amp;rsquo;homme des Nations unies en Ukraine (HRMMU), \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/ukraine.ohchr.org\/en\/node\/582&quot;&gt;Russian Attacks Against Ukraine Have Reached a New Level of Intensity, Sowing More Death, Fear and Devastation Across the Country&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, communiqu\u00e9, 24 septembre 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ACLED, analys\u00e9 par l&rsquo;AFP, compte 118 frappes ou s\u00e9ries de frappes sur la r\u00e9gion de Kiev du 1er au 18 septembre. C&rsquo;est plus que pour n&rsquo;importe quel autre mois complet depuis 2022, \u00e0 l&rsquo;exception de mars 2022, alors m\u00eame que la Russie s\u2019est abstenue de frapper la capitale du 5 au 7 septembre pour la <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/07\/apres-la-visite-de-kushner-et-witkoff-a-moscou-et-kiev-vers-une-reprise-des-negociations\/\">visite<\/a> des envoy\u00e9s sp\u00e9ciaux de Donald Trump, Steve Wikoff et Jared Kushner&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-360820' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/la-guerre-des-villes-la-doctrine-russe-pour-devaster-lukraine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-360820' title='Institute for the Study of War, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.criticalthreats.org\/analysis\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-5-2026&quot;&gt;Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment&lt;\/a&gt;, 5 et 6 septembre 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/NLBuE\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les entrep\u00f4ts, les commerces et les stations-service situ\u00e9s aux alentours de la capitale constituent des cibles prioritaires, et plusieurs victimes civiles sont des ouvriers ou des cheminots.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Zelensky a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 lundi 28 septembre qu\u2019en une semaine, la Russie avait lanc\u00e9 plus de 2 200 drones, 1 630 bombes planantes et 38 missiles&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-360820' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/la-guerre-des-villes-la-doctrine-russe-pour-devaster-lukraine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-360820' title='Volodymyr Zelensky, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/t.me\/V_Zelenskiy_official\/21097&quot;&gt;canal Telegram officiel&lt;\/a&gt;, 27 septembre 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette hausse s&rsquo;ajoute \u00e0 celle enregistr\u00e9e en ao\u00fbt (372 morts et 2 349 bless\u00e9s), ce qui porte le bilan des huit premiers mois \u00e0 55&#160;% de plus qu&rsquo;en 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sur janvier-ao\u00fbt, le bilan s&rsquo;\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 2 222 morts et 13 058 bless\u00e9s, soit 55&#160;% de plus qu&rsquo;au cours de la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode en 2025, et plus du double par rapport \u00e0 2024. Les armes \u00e0 longue port\u00e9e (missiles et drones) sont \u00e0 l&rsquo;origine de 47&#160;% des victimes&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-360820' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/la-guerre-des-villes-la-doctrine-russe-pour-devaster-lukraine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-360820' title='Mission de surveillance des droits de l&amp;rsquo;homme des Nations unies en Ukraine (HRMMU), \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/ukraine.ohchr.org\/en\/node\/582&quot;&gt;Russian Attacks Against Ukraine Have Reached a New Level of Intensity, Sowing More Death, Fear and Devastation Across the Country&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, communiqu\u00e9, 24 septembre 2026.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/3FvLw\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration a lieu alors que le front, sous pression <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/16\/larmee-ukrainienne-mene-a-lyman-sa-deuxieme-contre-offensive-majeure-de-lannee\/\">d\u2019une deuxi\u00e8me contre-offensive ukrainienne<\/a>, stagne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L&rsquo;arm\u00e9e russe n&rsquo;a conquis que 5 km\u00b2 de territoire en ao\u00fbt, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/01\/la-progression-russe-en-ukraine-est-au-plus-bas-depuis-pres-de-trois-ans\/\">sa plus faible progression depuis octobre 2023<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Le moral se d\u00e9t\u00e9riore aussi \u00e0 mesure que la guerre s\u2019\u00e9tend \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie et au territoire russe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/suBS1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon l\u2019institut russe IKAR, 81&#160;% des Russes seraient favorables \u00e0 ce que la guerre se termine \u00ab&#160;d\u00e8s demain&#160;\u00bb \u2013 un record depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019invasion.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En juin, seulement 52&#160;% estimaient que le pays \u00ab&#160;allait dans la bonne direction&#160;\u00bb, soit le niveau le plus bas depuis f\u00e9vrier 2022, selon le Centre Levada.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ce m\u00eame mois, les attaques contre les infrastructures p\u00e9troli\u00e8res constituaient l\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nement le plus souvent cit\u00e9 par les personnes interrog\u00e9es (24&#160;%)&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-360820' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/la-guerre-des-villes-la-doctrine-russe-pour-devaster-lukraine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-360820' title='Maria Snegovaya et Jade McGlynn, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/russian-attitudes-are-shifting-wars-effects-come-home&quot;&gt;Russian Attitudes Are Shifting as the War&amp;rsquo;s Effects Come Home&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 7 juillet 2026.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u2019est dans la difficult\u00e9 que le r\u00e9gime pourrait \u00eatre en train de faire entrer la guerre dans une nouvelle phase. Comme le note Yaroslav Trofimov&#160;: \u00ab&#160;La capacit\u00e9 de la Russie \u00e0 produire en masse des drones \u00e0 r\u00e9action difficiles \u00e0 intercepter ces derniers mois, et sa d\u00e9cision de les d\u00e9ployer principalement contre les infrastructures civiles de Kiev, ont transform\u00e9 la nature de cette guerre&#160;\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Rybar, une cha\u00eene Telegram de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence dans le milieu militaire russe, fond\u00e9e par Mikha\u00efl Zvintchuk, ancien membre du service de presse du minist\u00e8re de la D\u00e9fense, pr\u00e9sente la \u00ab&#160;guerre des villes&#160;\u00bb comme une strat\u00e9gie d\u2019usure \u00e9conomique.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Il s\u2019agit de transformer l\u2019Ukraine en un \u00ab&#160;actif inutile pour ses commanditaires&#160;\u00bb, qui co\u00fbterait \u00e0 l\u2019Europe plus de 50 milliards d\u2019euros par an, sans pouvoir subvenir \u00e0 ses propres besoins. La reconstruction deviendrait peu rentable (\u00ab&#160;pourquoi reconstruire un terminal dans une ville o\u00f9 vivent trois fois moins d\u2019habitants&#160;?&#160;\u00bb).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019objectif serait que l\u2019Union finisse par \u00ab&#160;consid\u00e9rer le pays comme perdu&#160;\u00bb, m\u00eame en cas de gel du conflit&#160;: \u00ab&#160;plus les attaques des forces arm\u00e9es russes seront efficaces dans le cadre de la guerre des villes, plus cette issue sera probable&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La cha\u00eene admet que cet objectif s\u2019\u00e9loigne des objectifs initiaux de \u00ab&#160;l\u2019op\u00e9ration militaire sp\u00e9ciale&#160;\u00bb. Elle pr\u00e9cise \u00e9galement que la guerre des villes \u00ab&#160;ne doit pas \u00eatre une fin en soi, mais s\u2019inscrire dans une strat\u00e9gie plus large&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>L&rsquo;expression \u00ab&#160;guerre des villes&#160;\u00bb vient de la guerre Iran-Irak, qui s\u2019est caract\u00e9ris\u00e9e entre 1984 et 1988 par le bombardement des grandes villes dans le but de briser le moral des civils.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le sp\u00e9cialiste de la guerre a\u00e9rienne, Robert Pape, distingue la coercition par \u00ab&#160;d\u00e9ni&#160;\u00bb, qui vise les moyens militaires de l&rsquo;adversaire, de la coercition par \u00ab&#160;punition&#160;\u00bb, qui vise sa population pour faire plier son gouvernement&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-360820' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/10\/01\/la-guerre-des-villes-la-doctrine-russe-pour-devaster-lukraine\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-360820' title='Robert A. Pape, &lt;em&gt;Bombing to Win&amp;#160;: Air Power and Coercion in War&lt;\/em&gt;, Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1996.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Russie a ras\u00e9 plusieurs villes ukrainiennes depuis le lancement de l\u2019invasion, dont Marioupol, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9truite \u00e0 plus de 80&#160;% d\u00e9but 2022, mais aussi Bakhmout, Avdiivka ou Tchassiv Yar, dans l\u2019oblast de Donetsk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Moscou veut transformer l\u2019Ukraine en un \u00ab&#160;actif inutile&#160;\u00bb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":360822,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":5,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-360820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":360822,"excerpt":"Moscou veut transformer l\u2019Ukraine en un \u00abactif inutile\u00bb","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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