{"id":360796,"date":"2026-09-30T19:25:47","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T17:25:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=360796"},"modified":"2026-09-30T19:25:53","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T17:25:53","slug":"de-le-pen-a-macron-que-disaient-les-sondages-200-jours-avant-les-precedentes-elections-presidentielles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/30\/de-le-pen-a-macron-que-disaient-les-sondages-200-jours-avant-les-precedentes-elections-presidentielles\/","title":{"rendered":"De Le Pen \u00e0 Macron&#160;: que disaient les sondages 200 jours avant les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Le premier tour de l&rsquo;\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle fran\u00e7aise se tiendra dans exactement 200 jours, le 18 avril 2027. Alors qu&rsquo;une trentaine de candidats se sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9clar\u00e9s, et devront obtenir 500 parrainages d&rsquo;\u00e9lus d&rsquo;au moins 30 d\u00e9partements ou collectivit\u00e9s d&rsquo;outre-mer diff\u00e9rents d&rsquo;ici le 12 mars, les sondages s&rsquo;accordent d\u00e9j\u00e0 sur la favorite du premier tour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Marine Le Pen, la candidate du Rassemblement national, est donn\u00e9e gagnante dans tous les sondages publi\u00e9s en septembre, pour le premier tour comme pour le second, quel que soit l&rsquo;adversaire test\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le candidat de La France insoumise, Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon, et \u00c9douard Philippe (Horizons), sont au coude-\u00e0-coude pour le premier tour, autour de 16-17&#160;%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gabriel Attal (Renaissance) et Rapha\u00ebl Glucksmann (Place publique, candidat \u00e0 la primaire socialiste) sont cr\u00e9dit\u00e9s d&rsquo;environ 10-11&#160;% d&rsquo;intentions de vote en moyenne, devant Bruno Retailleau (Les R\u00e9publicains, autour de 8&#160;%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le score d&rsquo;Attal d\u00e9pend fortement de la pr\u00e9sence d&rsquo;\u00c9douard Philippe&#160;: de 12 \u00e0 15,5&#160;% sans, et de 5 \u00e0 9&#160;% avec.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/6TFFJ\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes campagnes pr\u00e9sidentielles sugg\u00e8rent toutefois que les \u00e9quilibres pourraient \u00e9voluer d&rsquo;ici le mois d&rsquo;avril.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Au cours des cinq derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles (de 2002 \u00e0 2022), le candidat en t\u00eate des sondages \u00e0 200 jours du premier tour a termin\u00e9 premier dans quatre cas (Chirac en 2002, alors au coude-\u00e0-coude avec Jospin, Sarkozy en 2007, Hollande en 2012 et Macron en 2022).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le duel de second tour attendu \u00e0 200 jours ne s&rsquo;est quant \u00e0 lui concr\u00e9tis\u00e9 que dans trois \u00e9lections&#160;: Sarkozy-Royal en 2007, Hollande-Sarkozy en 2012 et Macron-Le Pen en 2022.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans les deux autres scrutins, au moins un des deux candidats qualifi\u00e9s pour le second tour n&rsquo;\u00e9tait pas celui attendu&#160;: Jean-Marie Le Pen au lieu de Jospin en 2002, et Macron au lieu de Jupp\u00e9 en 2017.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/6gAet\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si les sondages r\u00e9alis\u00e9s \u00e0 200 jours du premier tour n&rsquo;ont pas syst\u00e9matiquement anticip\u00e9 la configuration finale, ils offrent n\u00e9anmoins plusieurs enseignements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans trois des cinq derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections, les sondages \u00e0 ce stade de la campagne ont donn\u00e9 un score proche de celui obtenu par le candidat du FN\/RN au premier tour.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Jean-Marie Le Pen \u00e9tait donn\u00e9 en moyenne \u00e0 12&#160;% pour l&rsquo;\u00e9lection de 2007, et a r\u00e9colt\u00e9 10,4&#160;% des voix&#160;; Marine Le Pen \u00e9tait donn\u00e9e en moyenne \u00e0 19&#160;% \u00e0 ce stade de la campagne en 2012, et a obtenu 17,9&#160;% des voix, puis elle a obtenu 23,15&#160;% lors du premier tour en 2022, alors qu&rsquo;elle \u00e9tait donn\u00e9e en moyenne \u00e0 21&#160;%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen avait toutefois \u00e9t\u00e9 nettement sous-estim\u00e9 (6 \u00e0 11&#160;% dans les sondages \u00e0 J-200, pour 16,9&#160;% des voix), et Marine Le Pen surestim\u00e9e en 2017 (24 \u00e0 33&#160;%, alors qu&rsquo;elle a finalement obtenu 21,3&#160;%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon, en revanche, les sondages \u00e0 J-200 ont sous-estim\u00e9 le r\u00e9sultat final du premier tour lors de chacune de ses trois candidatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Il \u00e9tait donn\u00e9 entre 3 et 7&#160;% en 2011 et a obtenu 11,1&#160;% lors du premier tour en 2012. En 2016, il \u00e9tait sond\u00e9 entre 10 et 15,5&#160;%, et a obtenu 19,6&#160;% des voix en 2017.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De m\u00eame, lors de l&rsquo;\u00e9lection de 2022, il oscillait entre 7 et 13&#160;% \u00e0 ce stade de la campagne en 2021, et a finalement r\u00e9colt\u00e9 22&#160;% des voix.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Comme <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/31\/marine-le-pen-peut-elle-encore-perdre-lelection-presidentielle\/\">l&rsquo;explique<\/a> Jean-Yves Dormagen, Bruno Retailleau et Dominique de Villepin, qui ne s&rsquo;est pas encore officiellement d\u00e9clar\u00e9, disposent d&rsquo;un potentiel \u00e9lectoral large mais \u00ab&#160;mou&#160;\u00bb&#160;: si leur candidature est envisageable pour une fraction significative de l&rsquo;\u00e9lectorat, elle est toutefois moins souvent prioritaire.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Depuis 2002, le candidat en t\u00eate \u00e0 ce stade de la campagne a remport\u00e9 le premier tour quatre fois sur cinq<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":360784,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":4,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3468],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-360796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-donnees-qui-changent-la-donne","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":360784,"excerpt":"Depuis 2002, le candidat en t\u00eate \u00e0 ce stade de la campagne a remport\u00e9 le premier tour quatre fois sur 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