{"id":360698,"date":"2026-09-30T10:10:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T08:10:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=360698"},"modified":"2026-09-30T10:10:18","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T08:10:18","slug":"la-dette-francaise-est-en-train-de-decrocher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/30\/la-dette-francaise-est-en-train-de-decrocher\/","title":{"rendered":"La dette fran\u00e7aise est en train de d\u00e9crocher"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Selon Shahin Vall\u00e9e, ancien conseiller \u00e9conomique d&rsquo;Emmanuel Macron \u00e0 Bercy, en trois semaines, la France est entr\u00e9e dans une zone de \u00ab&#160;danger historique&#160;\u00bb pour sa dette.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u00ab&#160;Personne ne semble vouloir parler dans la presse ou dans la classe politique de cette perte de contr\u00f4le du spread OAT-Bund&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Le spread correspond \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence entre le taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat pay\u00e9 par la France sur un emprunt \u00e0 10 ans et celui pay\u00e9 par l&rsquo;Allemagne, qui est consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme l&#8217;emprunteur le plus s\u00fbr de la zone euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Plus cet \u00e9cart se creuse, plus les march\u00e9s imposent \u00e0 la France une prime de risque pour compenser le risque qu&rsquo;ils prennent en lui pr\u00eatant de l&rsquo;argent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/2VEJG\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u00ab&#160;Le spread \u00e9tait sous 70 points de base (bps) au printemps, fin ao\u00fbt, il \u00e9tait vers 85 bps. Aujourd\u2019hui, il d\u00e9passe 110 bps ce qui signifie que la France emprunte 1,1&#160;% plus cher que l\u2019Allemagne&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Quelles cons\u00e9quences concr\u00e8tes&#160;? \u00ab&#160;En trois semaines, la France aurait perdu l&rsquo;\u00e9quivalent de 15 milliards d&rsquo;euros par an de charge de la dette suppl\u00e9mentaire sur une p\u00e9riode de dix ans. En cumul\u00e9, cela ferait presque 100 milliards d&rsquo;euros sur la d\u00e9cennie&#160;\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pour avoir quelques points de rep\u00e8re, 15 milliards repr\u00e9sentent environ une fois et demie le budget de la Justice, ou la moiti\u00e9 de celui de l&rsquo;Enseignement sup\u00e9rieur et de la Recherche.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019ensemble de l&rsquo;investissement public fran\u00e7ais tourne autour de 130 milliards par an.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Selon Shahin Vall\u00e9e, la France se rapproche de deux pics&#160;: \u00ab&#160;nous marchons \u00e0 grands pas vers notre plus haut niveau dans l\u2019euro, soit 211 bps en novembre 2011, au plus fort de la crise des dettes souveraines&#160;\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En 1992, pendant la crise du franc, marqu\u00e9e par des attaques sp\u00e9culatives contre le syst\u00e8me mon\u00e9taire europ\u00e9en, l&rsquo;\u00e9cart sur les taux longs \u00e9tait rest\u00e9 sous 150 pbs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En 1983, avant l&rsquo;introduction de l\u2019euro, l&rsquo;\u00e9cart avec l&rsquo;Allemagne avait atteint pr\u00e8s de 700 pbs. Le gouvernement Mauroy avait alors \u00e9t\u00e9 contraint d\u2019abandonner la politique socialiste de relance pour \u00ab&#160;le tournant de la rigueur&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour comprendre pourquoi c\u2019est critique, Shahin Vall\u00e9e estime qu\u2019il faut comprendre le sens d\u2019une formule bien connue par les \u00e9conomistes&#160;: \u00ab&#160;r &gt; g&#160;\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Lorsque le taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat pay\u00e9 sur la dette (\u00ab&#160;r&#160;\u00bb) d\u00e9passe la croissance nominale de l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie (\u00ab&#160;g&#160;\u00bb), la dette augmente plus rapidement que la richesse utilis\u00e9e pour la rembourser. Le ratio dette\/PIB augmente alors m\u00e9caniquement m\u00eame en l&rsquo;absence de nouveau d\u00e9ficit primaire.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ainsi, la France peut entrer dans un effet \u00ab&#160;boule de neige r\u00e9flexif&#160;\u00bb&#160;: la hausse des taux alourdit la dette, ce qui inqui\u00e8te davantage les march\u00e9s, et les taux montent encore.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/53wIy\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les marges de man\u0153uvre sont faibles pour un gouvernement sans majorit\u00e9, en pleine campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Son garde-fou&#160;: \u00ab&#160;l&rsquo;article 47, alin\u00e9a 3, de la Constitution permet de mettre en \u0153uvre le budget par ordonnance si l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e ne s&rsquo;est pas prononc\u00e9e dans les d\u00e9lais impartis. Aucun gouvernement ne l&rsquo;a jamais utilis\u00e9&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le hic, c&rsquo;est qu&rsquo;il faut d&rsquo;abord attendre 70 jours de d\u00e9bats parlementaires.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>En bref&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Personne ne semble avoir pris conscience de la zone de danger dans laquelle nous entrons&#160;\u00bb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00ab&#160;Personne ne semble avoir pris conscience de la zone de danger dans laquelle nous 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