{"id":355527,"date":"2026-09-01T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=355527"},"modified":"2026-09-01T17:39:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-01T15:39:40","slug":"la-progression-russe-en-ukraine-est-au-plus-bas-depuis-pres-de-trois-ans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/01\/la-progression-russe-en-ukraine-est-au-plus-bas-depuis-pres-de-trois-ans\/","title":{"rendered":"La progression russe en Ukraine est au plus bas depuis pr\u00e8s de trois ans"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Selon les chiffres du groupe d\u2019analystes ukrainiens DeepState, la progression territoriale de l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe en Ukraine s\u2019est \u00e9tablie \u00e0 5 km\u00b2 au cours du mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt, soit environ 0,16 km\u00b2 d\u2019avanc\u00e9e par jour en moyenne. Il s\u2019agit du chiffre le plus bas depuis octobre 2023, lorsque Moscou avait mis fin \u00e0 la contre-offensive de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9, dans la r\u00e9gion de Donetsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La m\u00e9thodologie utilis\u00e9e par DeepState fournit une image imparfaite du ralentissement du rythme de l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le groupe est notamment d\u00e9pendant des autorit\u00e9s ukrainiennes, qui peuvent chercher \u00e0 retarder la communication de certaines informations afin de ne pas nuire \u00e0 une op\u00e9ration en cours.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ainsi, en ao\u00fbt, DeepState a attendu que le gouvernement communique sur les r\u00e9sultats de la <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/17\/comment-lukraine-a-discretement-repris-le-controle-de-plus-de-700-km%C2%B2-de-son-territoire\/\">contre-offensive<\/a> lanc\u00e9e fin janvier pour les r\u00e9percuter sur ses propres cartes, plut\u00f4t que de signaler au fil des op\u00e9rations l\u2019avanc\u00e9e r\u00e9elle des forces ukrainiennes, provoquant ainsi un d\u00e9calage artificiel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selon l\u2019analyste Cl\u00e9ment Molin, les r\u00e9sultats d\u2019une nouvelle contre-attaque dans le secteur de Lyman pourraient \u00eatre annonc\u00e9s dans les prochains jours. Celle-ci pourrait conduire \u00e0 la r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration de 200 km\u00b2 de territoire suppl\u00e9mentaire par Kiev&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-355527' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/01\/la-progression-russe-en-ukraine-est-au-plus-bas-depuis-pres-de-trois-ans\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-355527' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/t.me\/clement_molin\/1666&quot;&gt;Publication sur Telegram de Cl\u00e9ment Molin&lt;\/a&gt;, 30 ao\u00fbt 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/7OBWZ\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Malgr\u00e9 une chronologie parfois impr\u00e9cise, la majorit\u00e9 des analystes s\u2019accordent pour dire que l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe ne parvient plus \u00e0 avancer en Ukraine comme elle avait pu le faire depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>L&rsquo;essoufflement des capacit\u00e9s offensives ainsi que la mont\u00e9e en puissance des forces ukrainiennes pourraient pousser Poutine \u00e0 une nouvelle escalade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon une source proche du pr\u00e9sident russe, Poutine craint que mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre sans avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 en mesure de prendre le contr\u00f4le du Donbass pourrait s\u00e9rieusement menacer son pouvoir \u2013 il aurait d\u00e9clar\u00e9 \u00e0 un de ses proches&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Ils vont me pendre&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-355527' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/01\/la-progression-russe-en-ukraine-est-au-plus-bas-depuis-pres-de-trois-ans\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-355527' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.economist.com\/europe\/2026\/08\/30\/cornered-vladimir-putin-plans-to-escalate-his-war&quot;&gt;Cornered, Vladimir Putin plans to escalate his war&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Economist&lt;\/em&gt;, 30 ao\u00fbt 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/26\/pourquoi-le-directeur-de-la-cia-sest-il-rendu-a-moscou\/\">visite<\/a> le 25 ao\u00fbt du directeur de la CIA \u00e0 Moscou pourrait avoir constitu\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ment d\u00e9clencheur de cette escalade&#160;: Poutine aurait en effet consid\u00e9r\u00e9 celle-ci comme un signe de faiblesse de Trump, de la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re qu\u2019il avait interpr\u00e9t\u00e9 la visite de Bill Burns, en novembre 2021, comme un signe de faiblesse de Biden.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Poutine pourrait notamment d\u00e9cider d\u2019envoyer 300 \u00e0 400 000 soldats suppl\u00e9mentaires combattre sur le front, ce qui correspondrait \u00e0 une hausse de 40 \u00e0 55&#160;% par rapport aux forces russes d\u00e9j\u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/04\/combien-de-soldats-russes-combattent-vraiment-en-ukraine\/\">pr\u00e9sentes<\/a> en Ukraine, sans pour autant annoncer une nouvelle mobilisation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/kWjjE\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Selon des renseignements obtenus par les services ukrainiens, Moscou pourrait notamment chercher \u00e0 lancer de nouveaux assauts en direction de Kiev et de Tchernihiv, une ville situ\u00e9e \u00e0 une cinquantaine de kilom\u00e8tres de la fronti\u00e8re avec le B\u00e9larus&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-355527' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/09\/01\/la-progression-russe-en-ukraine-est-au-plus-bas-depuis-pres-de-trois-ans\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-355527' title='\u0414\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0441 \u0428\u0430\u043f\u043e\u0448\u043d\u0456\u043a\u043e\u0432, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/suspilne.media\/chernihiv\/1390598-zbrojni-sili-rf-otrimali-zavdanna-splanuvati-operaciu-u-napramku-cernigova-ta-kieva-zastupnik-kerivnika-op-palisa\/&quot;&gt;\u0417\u0431\u0440\u043e\u0439\u043d\u0456 \u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0420\u0424 \u043e\u0442\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u0437\u0430\u0432\u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0441\u043f\u043b\u0430\u043d\u0443\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u043e\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0456\u044e \u0443 \u043d\u0430\u043f\u0440\u044f\u043c\u043a\u0443 \u0427\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0456\u0433\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u0442\u0430 \u041a\u0438\u0454\u0432\u0430, \u2014 \u0437\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u043d\u0438\u043a \u043a\u0435\u0440\u0456\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0430 \u041e\u041f \u041f\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0441\u0430&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;\u0421\u0443\u0441\u043f\u0456\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e&lt;\/em&gt;, 29 ao\u00fbt 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. La derni\u00e8re offensive russe sur cet axe remonte \u00e0 2022, dans le sillage de la tentative rat\u00e9e de d\u00e9capitation du pouvoir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019absence de succ\u00e8s majeurs pourrait conduire Poutine \u00e0 une nouvelle escalade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":355492,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-355527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":355492,"excerpt":"L\u2019absence de succ\u00e8s majeurs pourrait conduire Poutine \u00e0 une nouvelle escalade.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This 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