{"id":355260,"date":"2026-08-30T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-30T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=355260"},"modified":"2026-08-29T14:50:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-29T12:50:00","slug":"simulations-exclusives-saxe-anhalt-lafd-gouvernerait-dans-plus-de-6-scenarios-sur-10-en-cas-dabstention-du-bsw","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/30\/simulations-exclusives-saxe-anhalt-lafd-gouvernerait-dans-plus-de-6-scenarios-sur-10-en-cas-dabstention-du-bsw\/","title":{"rendered":"[Simulations exclusives] Saxe-Anhalt&#160;: l\u2019AfD gouvernerait dans plus de 6 sc\u00e9narios sur 10 en cas d\u2019abstention du BSW"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Le Bulletin des \u00e9lections de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne a r\u00e9alis\u00e9 des simulations \u00e0 partir des sondages r\u00e9gionaux publi\u00e9s ces derni\u00e8res semaines. Le mod\u00e8le utilis\u00e9 s\u2019appuie sur un vaste corpus de sondages r\u00e9gionaux r\u00e9alis\u00e9s dans les <em>L\u00e4nder<\/em> de l\u2019Est depuis les ann\u00e9es 1990 pour estimer les biais des diff\u00e9rents instituts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sur 1000 simulations, 54&#160;% donnent une majorit\u00e9 absolue \u00e0 Alternative pour l\u2019Allemagne (AfD, ESN) au Landtag. Cette majorit\u00e9, le plus souvent \u00e9troite&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-355260' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/30\/simulations-exclusives-saxe-anhalt-lafd-gouvernerait-dans-plus-de-6-scenarios-sur-10-en-cas-dabstention-du-bsw\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-355260' title='Note m\u00e9thodologique&amp;#160;: Depuis notre pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente projection, notre mod\u00e8le a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9tendu pour int\u00e9grer l\u2019effet des si\u00e8ges de surplus (&lt;em&gt;\u00dcberhangmandaten&lt;\/em&gt;) accord\u00e9 aux partis en fonction du nombre de d\u00e9put\u00e9s \u00e9lus directement au Landtag dans les circonscriptions uninominales. Cette extension n\u2019a pas d\u2019effet sur l\u2019estimation de la probabilit\u00e9 de victoire mais contribue \u00e0 une simulation plus fid\u00e8le de la distribution des si\u00e8ges.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>, permettrait n\u00e9anmoins au parti de gouverner sans former de coalition et de nommer le ministre-pr\u00e9sident et l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019ex\u00e9cutif r\u00e9gional. L\u2019AfD de Saxe-Anhalt est classifi\u00e9e comme \u00ab&#160;mouvement extr\u00e9miste de droite&#160;\u00bb par l\u2019Office de protection de la constitution depuis novembre 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/TMyWI\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La probabilit\u00e9 de victoire de l\u2019AfD dans notre mod\u00e8le s\u2019est l\u00e9g\u00e8rement accrue depuis la <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/07\/29\/simulations-exclusives-lafd-a-une-chance-sur-deux-de-gouverner-la-saxe-anhalt\/\">pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente mise \u00e0 jour<\/a>, qui lui donnait 52&#160;% de chances de victoire.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette \u00e9volution s\u2019explique par la bonne dynamique du parti dans les sondages d\u2019opinion.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les trois enqu\u00eates r\u00e9alis\u00e9es depuis d\u00e9but ao\u00fbt donnent \u00e0 l\u2019AfD 42 \u00e0 43&#160;% des voix. En deuxi\u00e8me position, l\u2019Union chr\u00e9tienne-d\u00e9mocrate d\u2019Allemagne (CDU, PPE) obtiendrait 22 \u00e0 23&#160;% des voix, contre 11 \u00e0 13&#160;% \u00e0 la Linke (GUE\/NGL) et seulement 6 \u00e0 8&#160;% au Parti social-d\u00e9mocrate d\u2019Allemagne (SPD). Alliance 90\/Les Verts (Verts\/ALE) \u00e9voluent \u00e9galement \u00e0 la limite du seuil de 5&#160;% des voix n\u00e9cessaires pour obtenir des si\u00e8ges. L\u2019Alliance Sahra-Wagenknecht (BSW, gauche nationaliste) s\u2019\u00e9tablit en moyenne en-de\u00e7\u00e0 de ce seuil, entre 4 et 5&#160;% des voix.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Avec une telle avance, l\u2019AfD devrait pouvoir remporter l\u2019immense majorit\u00e9 des circonscriptions de la r\u00e9gion \u2013 dans la moiti\u00e9 de nos simulations, au moins 40 des 41 circonscriptions vont \u00e0 l\u2019extr\u00eame droite.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/QxorE\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>S\u2019il parvient \u00e0 entrer au Landtag, le BSW pourrait \u00eatre en position de peser sur l\u2019\u00e9lection du prochain ministre-pr\u00e9sident.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En effet, la Constitution du Land pr\u00e9voit qu\u2019au troisi\u00e8me tour de scrutin, une majorit\u00e9 simple des suffrages<em> exprim\u00e9s <\/em>est suffisante pour \u00e9lire le chef de l\u2019ex\u00e9cutif r\u00e9gional. Or, dans 60&#160;% de nos simulations, l\u2019AfD et le BSW d\u00e9tiennent ensemble une majorit\u00e9 des si\u00e8ges au Landtag.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Si le BSW d\u00e9cidait de s\u2019abstenir au troisi\u00e8me tour de vote, il pourrait ainsi permettre l\u2019\u00e9lection d\u2019un ministre-pr\u00e9sident issu de l\u2019AfD. Le parti a r\u00e9cemment donn\u00e9 des signaux en ce sens&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-355260' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/30\/simulations-exclusives-saxe-anhalt-lafd-gouvernerait-dans-plus-de-6-scenarios-sur-10-en-cas-dabstention-du-bsw\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-355260' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;\u201e&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.tagesspiegel.de\/politik\/die-brandmauer-ist-gescheitert-bsw-will-in-sachsen-anhalt-notfalls-afd-kandidaten-zum-amt-verhelfen-15935749.html&quot;&gt;Die Brandmauer ist gescheitert\u201c&amp;#160;: BSW will in Sachsen-Anhalt notfalls AfD-Kandidaten zum Amt verhelfen&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Tagesspiegel&lt;\/em&gt;, 12 ao\u00fbt 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>, d\u00e9clarant que \u00ab&#160;le cordon sanitaire a[vait] \u00e9chou\u00e9&#160;\u00bb et que la priorit\u00e9 du parti \u00e9tait dor\u00e9navant de mettre fin au mandat du ministre-pr\u00e9sident sortant, le conservateur Sven Schulze (CDU).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/9MZy1\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Victime d\u2019une longue d\u00e9crue dans les sondages, le BSW est en concurrence directe avec l\u2019AfD sur une ligne populiste, anti-immigration et hostile au soutien \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019approche d\u2019un soutien tacite \u00e0 un gouvernement de l\u2019AfD, si elle est ni\u00e9e par la direction du BSW qui indique souhaiter un ministre-pr\u00e9sident neutre, au-dessus des partis, n\u2019a \u00e9merg\u00e9 que r\u00e9cemment dans son discours officiel. Il pourrait s\u2019agir d\u2019une tentative de contenir la fuite continue d\u2019une partie de sa base \u00e9lectorale vers le parti d\u2019extr\u00eame droite, dont la dynamique est bien meilleure dans les enqu\u00eates d\u2019opinion.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La capacit\u00e9 du BSW \u00e0 peser pourrait cependant rester limit\u00e9e&#160;: dans nos simulations, la formation de Sahra Wagenknecht n\u2019est en capacit\u00e9 de dicter la majorit\u00e9 gouvernementale que dans 6&#160;% des cas. Le plus souvent, elle \u00e9choue tout simplement \u00e0 obtenir des si\u00e8ges au Landtag.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Alors que les sondages sugg\u00e8rent une l\u00e9g\u00e8re croissance de l\u2019AfD, une majorit\u00e9 absolue du parti d\u2019extr\u00eame droite est d\u00e9sormais l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se la plus probable.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les signaux indiquant une bascule possible de la droite conservatrice se sont d\u2019ailleurs multipli\u00e9s ces derniers jours. Un responsable local de la CDU de la ville de Stendal a r\u00e9cemment effectu\u00e9 un don de 10 000 euros \u00e0 l\u2019AfD, attirant l\u2019attention de la presse r\u00e9gionale&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-355260' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/30\/simulations-exclusives-saxe-anhalt-lafd-gouvernerait-dans-plus-de-6-scenarios-sur-10-en-cas-dabstention-du-bsw\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-355260' title='Michael Bock, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.volksstimme.de\/wahl\/landtagswahl-sachsen-anhalt\/landtagswahl-cdu-afd-geld-spende-4304460&quot;&gt;Paukenschlag&amp;#160;: CDU-Politiker aus Sachsen-Anhalt spendet 10.000 Euro an die AfD&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Volksstimme&lt;\/em&gt;, 20 ao\u00fbt 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Le ministre-pr\u00e9sident de Saxe voisine, Michael Kretschmer, a \u00e9galement tenu en juillet des propos d\u00e9favorables \u00e0 un maintien du cordon sanitaire. Pour l\u2019heure, la direction nationale du parti s\u2019en tient cependant \u00e0 sa ligne historique&#160;: celle d\u2019un refus de toute collaboration&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-355260' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/30\/simulations-exclusives-saxe-anhalt-lafd-gouvernerait-dans-plus-de-6-scenarios-sur-10-en-cas-dabstention-du-bsw\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-355260' title='Christian St\u00f6r, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.fr.de\/politik\/haelt-die-cdu-brandmauer-zur-afd-frei-weist-zweifel-zurueck-94434535.html&quot;&gt;Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt&amp;#160;: H\u00e4lt die Brandmauer&amp;#160;? Frei weist Zweifel zur\u00fcck&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Frankfurter Rundschau&lt;\/em&gt;, 8 ao\u00fbt 2026.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span> avec l\u2019AfD et la Linke.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les habitants de Saxe-Anhalt se rendront aux urnes dimanche prochain, le 6 septembre, pour \u00e9lire les 83 d\u00e9put\u00e9s du Landtag. Selon notre derni\u00e8re simulation, l\u2019AfD pourrait remporter l\u2019immense majorit\u00e9 des circonscriptions de la r\u00e9gion. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":355262,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":4,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2980],"tags":[],"staff":[1637],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-355260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","staff-francois-hublet","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":355262,"excerpt":"Les habitants de Saxe-Anhalt se rendront aux urnes dimanche prochain, le 6 septembre, pour \u00e9lire les 83 d\u00e9put\u00e9s du Landtag. Selon notre derni\u00e8re simulation, l\u2019AfD pourrait remporter l\u2019immense majorit\u00e9 des circonscriptions de la r\u00e9gion. ","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>[Simulations exclusives] Saxe-Anhalt : l\u2019AfD gouvernerait dans plus de 6 sc\u00e9narios sur 10 en cas d\u2019abstention du BSW | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/30\/simulations-exclusives-saxe-anhalt-lafd-gouvernerait-dans-plus-de-6-scenarios-sur-10-en-cas-dabstention-du-bsw\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"[Simulations exclusives] Saxe-Anhalt : l\u2019AfD gouvernerait dans plus de 6 sc\u00e9narios sur 10 en cas d\u2019abstention du BSW | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les habitants de Saxe-Anhalt se rendront aux urnes dimanche prochain, le 6 septembre, pour \u00e9lire les 83 d\u00e9put\u00e9s du Landtag. Selon notre derni\u00e8re simulation, l\u2019AfD pourrait remporter l\u2019immense majorit\u00e9 des circonscriptions de la r\u00e9gion.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/30\/simulations-exclusives-saxe-anhalt-lafd-gouvernerait-dans-plus-de-6-scenarios-sur-10-en-cas-dabstention-du-bsw\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-08-30T04:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Capture-decran-2026-08-29-a-14.47.54.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2156\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1210\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ramona Bloj\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" 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