{"id":354960,"date":"2026-08-28T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=354960"},"modified":"2026-08-27T23:44:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T21:44:07","slug":"les-etats-unis-gagnent-plus-souvent-lorsque-les-guerres-sont-courtes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/28\/les-etats-unis-gagnent-plus-souvent-lorsque-les-guerres-sont-courtes\/","title":{"rendered":"Les \u00c9tats-Unis gagnent plus souvent lorsque les guerres sont courtes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Aujourd\u2019hui, vendredi 28 ao\u00fbt, marque six mois depuis le lancement par les \u00c9tats-Unis et Isra\u00ebl d\u2019une guerre contre l\u2019Iran. Pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme une campagne visant \u00e0 d\u00e9truire les infrastructures nucl\u00e9aires et militaires du pays, l&rsquo;op\u00e9ration s&rsquo;est transform\u00e9e en un conflit prolong\u00e9 auquel les \u00c9tats-Unis peinent \u00e0 mettre fin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sur les 41 interventions militaires am\u00e9ricaines recens\u00e9es depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale \u2013 compil\u00e9es \u00e0 partir des donn\u00e9es MIPS de Sullivan et Koch, compl\u00e9t\u00e9 par le Costs of War Project de Brown University et le UCDP\/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset pour les conflits post-2001 \u2013, 22 ont dur\u00e9 plus de six mois.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sur ces 22 interventions, en reclassant la guerre du Vietnam en d\u00e9faite, les \u00c9tats-Unis comptent 9 d\u00e9faites et 11 victoires. Pour deux d&rsquo;entre elles, la guerre d&rsquo;Irak et l&rsquo;intervention en Libye, le r\u00e9sultat est mixte&#160;: un succ\u00e8s tactique imm\u00e9diat suivi d&rsquo;un \u00e9chec strat\u00e9gique \u00e0 long terme.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/cNMTJ\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Le taux de victoire pour les conflits de plus de six mois est ainsi significativement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui des interventions plus courtes&#160;: 50&#160;%, contre 89&#160;%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cet \u00e9cart traduit la difficult\u00e9 croissante rencontr\u00e9e par les \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 obtenir des victoires d\u00e9cisives \u00e0 mesure qu&rsquo;un conflit s\u2019enlise.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette r\u00e9alit\u00e9, qui s&rsquo;applique aussi bien aux conflits inter\u00e9tatiques qu&rsquo;aux guerres asym\u00e9triques, est illustr\u00e9e par la guerre am\u00e9ricaine contre l&rsquo;Iran, mais \u00e9galement par la guerre de la Russie contre l&rsquo;Ukraine, dont la dur\u00e9e <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/06\/09\/a-partir-de-demain-la-guerre-en-ukraine-sera-aussi-longue-que-la-premiere-guerre-mondiale\/\">a d\u00e9pass\u00e9<\/a> celle de la Premi\u00e8re Guerre mondiale.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/oq8BK\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les victoires militaires sont rares lors des affrontements contemporains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon les donn\u00e9es compil\u00e9es par l&rsquo;Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), moins de la moiti\u00e9 (46&#160;%) des 63 conflits recens\u00e9s sur la p\u00e9riode 1946-2005 se sont sold\u00e9s par un cessez-le-feu ou un accord de paix.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Seul un conflit sur cinq (21&#160;%) d\u00e9bouche sur un <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/25\/comment-finissent-les-guerres\/\">sc\u00e9nario<\/a> de gagnant\/perdant, tandis qu&rsquo;un tiers (33&#160;%) se solde par une situation floue dans laquelle n&rsquo;\u00e9merge ni accord de paix ni victoire claire.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les \u00c9tats-Unis ont remport\u00e9 50&#160;% des guerres de plus de six mois depuis 1945, et 89&#160;% des guerres de moins de six mois.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":354963,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":2,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3468],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-354960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-donnees-qui-changent-la-donne","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-ameriques"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":354963,"excerpt":"Les \u00c9tats-Unis ont remport\u00e9 50 % des guerres de plus de six mois depuis 1945, et 89 % des guerres de moins de six mois.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les \u00c9tats-Unis gagnent plus lorsque les guerres sont courtes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/28\/les-etats-unis-gagnent-plus-souvent-lorsque-les-guerres-sont-courtes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Les \u00c9tats-Unis gagnent plus lorsque les guerres sont courtes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les \u00c9tats-Unis ont remport\u00e9 50&#160;% des guerres de plus de six mois depuis 1945, et 89&#160;% des guerres de moins de six mois.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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