{"id":353546,"date":"2026-08-19T16:29:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T14:29:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=353546"},"modified":"2026-08-19T16:33:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T14:33:14","slug":"lhumanite-pourrait-deja-etre-passee-sous-le-seuil-de-renouvellement-des-generations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/19\/lhumanite-pourrait-deja-etre-passee-sous-le-seuil-de-renouvellement-des-generations\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019humanit\u00e9 pourrait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00eatre pass\u00e9e sous le seuil de renouvellement des g\u00e9n\u00e9rations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Un \u00e0 deux centi\u00e8mes d\u2019enfants par femme seulement s\u00e9parent l&rsquo;indice synth\u00e9tique de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 mondial du taux de remplacement \u2013 un \u00e9cart dans la marge d&rsquo;erreur des donn\u00e9es disponibles. L&rsquo;humanit\u00e9 serait ainsi vraisemblablement d\u00e9j\u00e0 pass\u00e9e sous le seuil de 2,2 enfants par femme requis pour le renouvellement des g\u00e9n\u00e9rations, ce qui ne s&rsquo;est jamais produit, m\u00eame durant des guerres ou des pand\u00e9mies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon une \u00e9tude publi\u00e9e le 10 ao\u00fbt par les \u00e9conomistes Jes\u00fas Fern\u00e1ndez-Villaverde et Patrick Norrick, aucune explication unique ne permet \u00e0 elle seule de rendre compte de la chute mondiale de la f\u00e9condit\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les auteurs avancent ainsi une conjecture&#160;: la <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/23\/les-smartphones-sont-ils-responsables-de-la-baisse-de-la-fecondite-au-niveau-mondial\/\">modernit\u00e9<\/a> rendrait un troisi\u00e8me enfant co\u00fbteux et le fait de ne pas avoir d&rsquo;enfants peu co\u00fbteux, les retraites et la sant\u00e9 publique remplissant d\u00e9sormais les fonctions qu&rsquo;assuraient autrefois les enfants \u2013 y compris dans les pays \u00e0 revenus interm\u00e9diaires&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-353546' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/19\/lhumanite-pourrait-deja-etre-passee-sous-le-seuil-de-renouvellement-des-generations\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-353546' title='Jes\u00fas Fern\u00e1ndez-Villaverde et Patrick Norrick, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.sas.upenn.edu\/~jesusfv\/Demographics.pdf&quot;&gt;Terra Incognita&amp;#160;: The Economics of a Shrinking World&lt;\/a&gt;, 10 ao\u00fbt 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La hausse du co\u00fbt de la vie dissuaderait ainsi les familles d&rsquo;avoir plus de deux enfants, \u00e0 l&rsquo;exception des m\u00e9nages ais\u00e9s qui peuvent externaliser ces co\u00fbts.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Une donn\u00e9e clef soutient cet argument&#160;: depuis les ann\u00e9es 1980, la relation entre revenu et f\u00e9condit\u00e9 s&rsquo;est invers\u00e9e aux \u00c9tats-Unis, les familles ais\u00e9es ayant en effet plus d&rsquo;enfants que les familles modestes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les donn\u00e9es du China General Social Survey (une enqu\u00eate nationale repr\u00e9sentative men\u00e9e en plusieurs vagues depuis 2012) sugg\u00e8rent toutefois qu&rsquo;en Chine, la baisse de la f\u00e9condit\u00e9 ne s&rsquo;explique pas uniquement par des contraintes mat\u00e9rielles.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00c0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle du pays, la part des 18-24 ans qui d\u00e9clarent ne vouloir aucun enfant est pass\u00e9e de 5&#160;% en 2012 \u00e0 32&#160;% en 2023 \u2013 soit une multiplication par trois entre 2012 et 2021 puis par deux entre 2021 et 2023&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-353546' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/19\/lhumanite-pourrait-deja-etre-passee-sous-le-seuil-de-renouvellement-des-generations\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-353546' title='Xiangning Xu, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/assets-eu.researchsquare.com\/files\/rs-8921502\/v1\/1830e34c-0725-4d40-ac20-9dc9687de77d.pdf?c=1777380836&quot;&gt;The Rise of Zero Fertility Desire in China&lt;\/a&gt;, 27 avril 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/1W6FO\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne est d\u00e9sormais connu dans les pays \u00e0 revenus \u00e9lev\u00e9s \u2013 notamment en <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/03\/01\/la-population-sud-coreenne-pourrait-diminuer-de-moitie-dici-2100\/\">Cor\u00e9e du Sud<\/a>, au Japon ou en <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2023\/09\/18\/dejuvenescence-litalie-face-a-au-probleme-structurel-de-sa-demographie\/\">Italie<\/a> \u2013, la chute de la f\u00e9condit\u00e9 touche aussi les r\u00e9gions les plus pauvres. C&rsquo;est notamment le cas de l&rsquo;Afrique subsaharienne&#160;: au Congo, une enqu\u00eate d\u00e9mographique nationale publi\u00e9e en 2026 fait \u00e9tat d&rsquo;une chute de l&rsquo;indice synth\u00e9tique de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 de 5,1 \u00e0 3,5 entre 2011-2012 et 2023-2025. La seule exception au monde est Isra\u00ebl, o\u00f9, depuis 2020, la f\u00e9condit\u00e9 des femmes musulmanes est pass\u00e9e sous celle des femmes juives \u2013 pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis 1948.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L&rsquo;ampleur de l&rsquo;effondrement d\u00e9mographique en cours d\u00e9passe de loin les pr\u00e9visions des d\u00e9mographes des derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le consensus \u00e9tait en effet que la baisse des taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 amorc\u00e9e apr\u00e8s la Seconde Guerre mondiale devait conduire \u00e0 un \u00e9quilibre, la f\u00e9condit\u00e9 convergeant r\u00e9gion par r\u00e9gion vers un peu plus de deux enfants par femme&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-353546' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/19\/lhumanite-pourrait-deja-etre-passee-sous-le-seuil-de-renouvellement-des-generations\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-353546' title='Nicholas Eberstadt et Patrick Norrick, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.thefp.com\/p\/peak-human-demographic-collapse&quot;&gt;Peak Human Is Coming Sooner Than You Think&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Free Press&lt;\/em&gt;, 14 mai 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/7YlaF\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Or, les indicateurs actuels ne laissent pas entrevoir de r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrage, ce qui pourrait avoir de profondes r\u00e9percussions sur les perspectives de croissance, la productivit\u00e9 et la capacit\u00e9 des \u00c9tats \u00e0 financer leurs syst\u00e8mes de retraite et de protection sociale.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L&rsquo;ampleur de l&rsquo;effondrement d\u00e9mographique en cours d\u00e9passe les pr\u00e9visions des d\u00e9mographes de ces derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":353545,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1926],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[2163],"class_list":["post-353546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-demographie","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-monde"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":353545,"excerpt":"L'ampleur de l'effondrement d\u00e9mographique en cours d\u00e9passe les pr\u00e9visions des d\u00e9mographes de ces derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u2019humanit\u00e9 pourrait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00eatre pass\u00e9e sous le seuil de renouvellement<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/19\/lhumanite-pourrait-deja-etre-passee-sous-le-seuil-de-renouvellement-des-generations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u2019humanit\u00e9 pourrait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00eatre pass\u00e9e sous le seuil de renouvellement\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L&#039;ampleur de l&#039;effondrement d\u00e9mographique en cours d\u00e9passe les pr\u00e9visions des 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