{"id":352264,"date":"2026-08-11T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=352264"},"modified":"2026-08-10T20:44:42","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T18:44:42","slug":"la-course-a-lia-a-un-probleme-structurel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/11\/la-course-a-lia-a-un-probleme-structurel\/","title":{"rendered":"La course \u00e0 l&rsquo;IA a un probl\u00e8me structurel"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Dans un document de travail publi\u00e9 en juillet 2026, l&rsquo;\u00e9conomiste de la Banque des r\u00e8glements internationaux, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, mod\u00e9lise la construction des infrastructures d&rsquo;intelligence artificielle comme une course, un \u00ab&#160;<em>contest<\/em>&#160;\u00bb au sens de la th\u00e9orie \u00e9conomique, dans laquelle quelques positions dominantes capturent l&rsquo;essentiel des gains&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-352264' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/11\/la-course-a-lia-a-un-probleme-structurel\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-352264' title='Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publ\/work1367.pdf&quot;&gt;The AI Investment Race&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;BIS Working Papers&lt;\/em&gt;, n\u00b0 1367, Banque des r\u00e8glements internationaux, juillet 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sa th\u00e8se centrale est que la course \u00e0 l&rsquo;IA \u00ab&#160;engendre une fragilit\u00e9 qui la mine elle-m\u00eame&#160;\u00bb.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Le graphique ci-dessous, extrait du rapport, pr\u00e9sente l&rsquo;une des deux facettes du ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne&#160;: son ampleur historique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/uxTNZ\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Rapport\u00e9e \u00e0 son niveau le plus bas d&rsquo;avant \u00ab&#160;le boom&#160;\u00bb, la d\u00e9pense d&rsquo;investissement dans l&rsquo;IA est sur le point de d\u00e9passer tous les grands \u00e9pisodes de boom technologique en seulement trois ans.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La courbe de l&rsquo;IA monte plus vite et plus haut que celle de la <em>canalmania<\/em> am\u00e9ricaine des ann\u00e9es 1830, de la<em> railway mania<\/em> britannique des ann\u00e9es 1840, des Ann\u00e9es folles ou de la bulle Internet de la fin des ann\u00e9es 1990.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les d\u00e9penses des grands hyperscalers devraient d\u00e9passer 700 milliards de dollars pour l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e 2026 seulement, et les projections du secteur tablent sur 3 000 \u00e0 4 000 milliards pour les prochaines ann\u00e9es.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tous les \u00e9pisodes historiques cit\u00e9s se sont achev\u00e9s par des corrections brutales.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>La pente actuelle n&rsquo;est pas un gage de solidit\u00e9, mais le signe d&rsquo;une sur-construction quantifi\u00e9e, qui rend les booms les plus susceptibles de se retourner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne est provoqu\u00e9 par une caract\u00e9ristique typique de la course.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La victoire est telle que \u00ab&#160;le vainqueur remporte presque tout&#160;\u00bb&#160;: chaque acteur investit donc massivement pour distancer ses rivaux, sans tenir compte de l&rsquo;impact de sa course sur les autres. Selon le mod\u00e8le calibr\u00e9, le r\u00e9sultat est un sur-investissement d&rsquo;environ 1,5 fois le niveau socialement optimal, et jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 trois fois l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la demande d&rsquo;IA est moins \u00e9lastique.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette dynamique a toutefois un seuil critique. Une fois que la construction atteint un certain seuil, que l&rsquo;auteur situe autour de 3 000 milliards de dollars, le surplus \u00e9conomique net (production totale moins co\u00fbt du capital) deviendrait n\u00e9gatif. Les projections situ\u00e9es entre 3 000 et 4 000 milliards de dollars placeraient donc le secteur \u00ab&#160;dans la zone des risques baissiers significatifs&#160;\u00bb, \u00e9crit-il.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le capital ainsi accumul\u00e9 est sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9. En cas de retournement, il devrait \u00eatre liquid\u00e9 simultan\u00e9ment sur un march\u00e9 peu liquide, ce qui r\u00e9duirait d&rsquo;autant le taux de r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration, surtout compte tenu de l&rsquo;endettement du secteur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019analyse se concentre \u00e9galement sur un deuxi\u00e8me probl\u00e8me central, celui du financement circulaire de l\u2019IA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne est le suivant&#160;: un acteur prend une participation au capital d&rsquo;un laboratoire d&rsquo;IA en \u00e9change de l&rsquo;engagement de ce dernier \u00e0 lui acheter de la puissance de calcul future. La demande est ainsi \u00ab&#160;fabriqu\u00e9e&#160;\u00bb par ceux qui financent l&rsquo;offre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le r\u00e9seau relie ainsi les hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Oracle et Meta), les fabricants de puces (Nvidia et AMD), les laboratoires (OpenAI, Anthropic et xAI) et le principal n\u00e9ocloud (CoreWeave). L&rsquo;ordre de grandeur est impressionnant&#160;: environ 46 milliards de dollars de participations ont \u00e9t\u00e9 effectivement d\u00e9bours\u00e9s, mais les engagements d&rsquo;achat pluriannuels s&rsquo;\u00e9l\u00e8vent \u00e0 879 milliards.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ces participations crois\u00e9es ne font que concentrer le risque. L&rsquo;auteur r\u00e9ume&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Le montage financier qui a aliment\u00e9 la croissance est \u00e9galement celui qui transmet la faillite&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>En abandonnant l&rsquo;hypoth\u00e8se d&rsquo;acteurs isol\u00e9s pour mod\u00e9liser le r\u00e9seau r\u00e9el, le rapport met ainsi en lumi\u00e8re une nouvelle vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9&#160;: la d\u00e9faillance d&rsquo;un seul laboratoire pourrait, en affectant le bilan de l&rsquo;hyperscaler qui le finance, inciter ce dernier \u00e0 se d\u00e9sengager d&rsquo;un autre laboratoire, propageant ainsi la crise.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ce risque s&rsquo;aggraverait \u00e0 mesure que la course se poursuit. Selon la simulation, la premi\u00e8re cascade se situerait \u00e0 une \u00e9chelle d&rsquo;investissement de 1,6 fois le niveau optimal, la seconde \u00e0 2,3 \u2014 et la trajectoire annonc\u00e9e de 3 000 \u00e0 4 000 milliards projetterait le secteur dans cette zone de contagion (entre 2,1 et 2,9).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ainsi, plus le financement passe par plusieurs laboratoires reli\u00e9s entre eux par quelques n\u0153uds \u00ab&#160;pivots&#160;\u00bb, plus une d\u00e9faillance locale peut devenir syst\u00e9mique.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>L&rsquo;auteur note aussi que la demande potentielle en IA est \u00ab&#160;vaste&#160;\u00bb et pourrait justifier une expansion consid\u00e9rable de la puissance de calcul. Toutefois, il souligne que la logique de <em>course<\/em> incite \u00e0 sur-construire.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L&rsquo;investissement dans l&rsquo;IA a d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9pass\u00e9, en trois ans, tous les grands booms depuis le XIXe si\u00e8cle et que sa structure de financement \u00ab&#160;circulaire&#160;\u00bb le rend fragile.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":352266,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":4,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3412],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-352264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-puissances-de-lia","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-ameriques"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":352266,"excerpt":"L'investissement dans l'IA a d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9pass\u00e9, en trois ans, tous les grands booms depuis le XIXe si\u00e8cle et que sa structure de financement \u00abcirculaire\u00bb le rend fragile.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La course \u00e0 l&#039;IA a un probl\u00e8me structurel<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/08\/11\/la-course-a-lia-a-un-probleme-structurel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La course \u00e0 l&#039;IA a un probl\u00e8me structurel\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L&#039;investissement dans l&#039;IA a d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9pass\u00e9, en trois ans, tous les grands booms depuis le XIXe si\u00e8cle et que sa structure de financement \u00ab&#160;circulaire&#160;\u00bb le rend 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