{"id":348934,"date":"2026-07-29T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=348934"},"modified":"2026-07-29T08:19:42","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T06:19:42","slug":"simulations-exclusives-lafd-a-une-chance-sur-deux-de-gouverner-la-saxe-anhalt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/07\/29\/simulations-exclusives-lafd-a-une-chance-sur-deux-de-gouverner-la-saxe-anhalt\/","title":{"rendered":"[Simulations exclusives] L\u2019AfD a une chance sur deux de gouverner la Saxe-Anhalt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Le Bulletin des \u00e9lections de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne a r\u00e9alis\u00e9 des simulations \u00e0 partir des sondages r\u00e9gionaux publi\u00e9s ces derni\u00e8res semaines. Le mod\u00e8le utilis\u00e9 s\u2019appuie sur un vaste corpus de sondages r\u00e9gionaux r\u00e9alis\u00e9s dans les <em>L\u00e4nder<\/em> de l\u2019Est depuis les ann\u00e9es 1990 pour estimer les biais des diff\u00e9rents instituts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sur 1000 simulations, 520 donnent une majorit\u00e9 absolue \u00e0 l\u2019AfD au Landtag. Cette majorit\u00e9, le plus souvent \u00e9troite, permettrait n\u00e9anmoins au parti de gouverner sans former de coalition et de nommer le ministre-pr\u00e9sident et l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019ex\u00e9cutif r\u00e9gional. L\u2019AfD de Saxe-Anhalt est classifi\u00e9e comme \u00ab&#160;mouvement extr\u00e9miste de droite&#160;\u00bb par l\u2019Office de protection de la constitution depuis novembre 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/TMyWI\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019AfD est actuellement donn\u00e9e autour de 40&#160;% des voix dans les enqu\u00eates d\u2019opinion, contre seulement 25&#160;% environ pour l\u2019Union chr\u00e9tienne-d\u00e9mocrate (CDU, PPE), en seconde position. La Linke (GUE\/NGL) s\u2019\u00e9tablit \u00e0 13 environ. Les autres partis \u2013 y compris les sociaux-d\u00e9mocrates \u2013 se positionnent imm\u00e9diatement au-dessus ou en dessous de la barre des 5&#160;% n\u00e9cessaire pour obtenir des si\u00e8ges. Avec 6&#160;%, le Parti social-d\u00e9mocrate d\u2019Allemagne (SPD, S&amp;D) est en danger. Les Verts (Verts\/ALE), l\u2019Alliance Sahra-Wagenknecht (BSW) et le Parti d\u00e9mocratique libre (FDP, RE) obtiendraient chacun 4&#160;% des voix. Avec trois partis fr\u00f4lant la barre sans l\u2019atteindre, recueillir 41 \u00e0 43&#160;% des voix est suffisant pour obtenir la majorit\u00e9 des si\u00e8ges.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/QxorE\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019une des principales questions du scrutin sera donc la capacit\u00e9 des Verts, du BSW, du FDP et, surtout, du SPD \u00e0 d\u00e9passer la barre.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sur les 413 simulations o\u00f9 les sociaux-d\u00e9mocrates \u00e9chouent \u00e0 obtenir des si\u00e8ges, l\u2019AfD remporte une majorit\u00e9 absolue dans presque trois quarts des cas (398). La probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une majorit\u00e9 absolue de l\u2019AfD tombe \u00e0 38&#160;% seulement lorsque le SPD parvient \u00e0 entrer au Landtag. Elle n\u2019est plus que 14&#160;% d\u00e8s lors que deux des quatre partis franchissent la barre. Si un cordon sanitaire strict est appliqu\u00e9 dans le syst\u00e8me partisan allemand vis-\u00e0-vis de l\u2019AfD, le retrait de listes pour faire barrage \u00e0 un parti n\u2019est pas habituellement pratiqu\u00e9. Arithm\u00e9tiquement, une fusion des listes du SPD et des Verts aurait pu largement r\u00e9duire ce risque, mais une telle hypoth\u00e8se n\u2019a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9voqu\u00e9e en public et le d\u00e9p\u00f4t des listes est d\u00e9sormais achev\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019AfD fait actuellement la course en t\u00eate dans les sondages f\u00e9d\u00e9raux avec environ 28&#160;% des voix, alors m\u00eame que le chancelier Friedrich Merz fait face \u00e0 une impopularit\u00e9 sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. \u00c0 ce stade, le parti serait susceptible d\u2019atteindre 35 \u00e0 40&#160;% des voix dans tous les L\u00e4nder de l\u2019Est, hors Berlin. La capitale f\u00e9d\u00e9rale et le Land du Mecklembourg-Pom\u00e9ranie-Occidentale organiseront \u00e9galement des scrutins r\u00e9gionaux \u00e0 l\u2019automne. Du fait de la pr\u00e9sence importante de l\u2019AfD, la Saxe-Anhalt et la Thuringe voisine pr\u00e9sentent depuis deux cycles \u00e9lectoraux d\u00e9j\u00e0 une situation gouvernementale complexe, impliquant de fragiles coalitions de trois partis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En Saxe-Anhalt, la poursuite de l\u2019actuelle coalition gouvernementale, CDU-SPD-FDP, appara\u00eet hautement improbable dans l\u2019\u00e9tat actuel des enqu\u00eates d\u2019opinion. Sur 1000 simulations, seules 12 reconduisent la majorit\u00e9 sortante. \u00c0 d\u00e9faut de majorit\u00e9 absolue de l\u2019AfD, il faudra tr\u00e8s probablement \u00e0 la CDU s\u2019entendre avec la Linke, avec laquelle les chr\u00e9tiens-d\u00e9mocrates ont toujours promis de ne pas gouverner. Un gouvernement minoritaire avec le soutien sans participation de la Linke appara\u00eetrait alors comme la seule solution viable \u2014 comme un retour pr\u00e9caire au \u00ab&#160;mod\u00e8le de Magdebourg&#160;\u00bb qui avait vu, en 1994, le SPD accepter un soutien sans participation du PDS, l\u2019ancien parti post-communiste.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le 6 septembre, la Saxe-Anhalt, r\u00e9gion de deux millions d\u2019habitants situ\u00e9e au centre-est de l\u2019Allemagne, renouvelle son Parlement r\u00e9gional. Pour la premi\u00e8re fois, l\u2019Alternative pour l\u2019Allemagne (AfD, ESN) appara\u00eet en position d\u2019y remporter la majorit\u00e9 absolue.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":348936,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2980],"tags":[],"staff":[1637],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-348934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","staff-francois-hublet","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":348936,"excerpt":"Le 6 septembre, la Saxe-Anhalt, r\u00e9gion de deux millions d\u2019habitants situ\u00e9e au centre-est de l\u2019Allemagne, renouvelle son Parlement r\u00e9gional. Pour la premi\u00e8re fois, l\u2019Alternative pour l\u2019Allemagne (AfD, ESN) appara\u00eet en position d\u2019y remporter la majorit\u00e9 absolue.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>[Simulations exclusives] L\u2019AfD a une chance sur deux de gouverner la Saxe-Anhalt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/07\/29\/simulations-exclusives-lafd-a-une-chance-sur-deux-de-gouverner-la-saxe-anhalt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"[Simulations exclusives] L\u2019AfD a une chance sur deux de gouverner la Saxe-Anhalt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le 6 septembre, la Saxe-Anhalt, r\u00e9gion de deux millions d\u2019habitants situ\u00e9e au centre-est de l\u2019Allemagne, renouvelle son Parlement r\u00e9gional. Pour la premi\u00e8re fois, l\u2019Alternative pour l\u2019Allemagne (AfD, ESN) appara\u00eet en position d\u2019y remporter la majorit\u00e9 absolue.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/07\/29\/simulations-exclusives-lafd-a-une-chance-sur-deux-de-gouverner-la-saxe-anhalt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-29T09:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/Capture-decran-2026-07-29-a-08.18.22.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1810\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1016\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ramona Bloj\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" 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