{"id":341566,"date":"2026-06-18T14:03:30","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T12:03:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=341566"},"modified":"2026-06-18T14:51:21","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T12:51:21","slug":"la-chine-a-t-elle-gagne-la-guerre-en-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/06\/18\/la-chine-a-t-elle-gagne-la-guerre-en-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"La Chine a-t-elle gagn\u00e9 la guerre en Iran&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>P\u00e9kin semble avoir tir\u00e9 plusieurs avantages de la guerre en Iran, qui pourraient la faire \u00e9merger comme l\u2019un des grands gagnants du conflit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tout d&rsquo;abord, l&rsquo;article 10 du <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/06\/17\/les-14-points-du-protocole-daccord-entre-les-etats-unis-et-liran-texte-integral-dune-capitulation-americaine\/\">protocole d&rsquo;accord<\/a> pr\u00e9voit que le Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain d\u00e9livre des d\u00e9rogations pour les exportations de p\u00e9trole brut iranien d\u00e8s sa signature. Or, ce p\u00e9trole est import\u00e9 en quasi-totalit\u00e9 par la Chine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En effet, l\u2019Iran est une source clef d\u2019approvisionnement chinois en p\u00e9trole bon march\u00e9.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fin 2025, la Chine importait jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 environ 1,4 million de barils par jour en provenance d&rsquo;Iran, soit 13&#160;% de ses importations totales de brut et entre 80&#160;% et 90&#160;% des exportations p\u00e9troli\u00e8res de T\u00e9h\u00e9ran.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Chine a \u00e9t\u00e9 moins touch\u00e9e que le reste de l\u2019Asie par la fermeture du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz en raison de ses r\u00e9serves consid\u00e9rables de p\u00e9trole, mais cette r\u00e9silience r\u00e9v\u00e8le aussi la nouvelle position que la Chine pourrait occuper d\u00e9sormais sur les march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers, en tant que force stabilisatrice.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ainsi, selon les donn\u00e9es des douanes chinoises, les importations totales de p\u00e9trole du pays, pipelines et rail inclus, sont tomb\u00e9es en mai \u00e0 7,8 millions de barils par jour, soit un tiers de moins qu&rsquo;avant la guerre. Les livraisons par voie maritime ont plong\u00e9 plus encore, de 45&#160;% sous leur moyenne de 2025. Cette baisse substantielle n\u2019a eu aucun effet majeur sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie du pays et les r\u00e9serves de p\u00e9trole de la Chine ont aussi, probablement, contenu la hausse globale du prix du p\u00e9trole&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-341566' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/06\/18\/la-chine-a-t-elle-gagne-la-guerre-en-iran\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-341566' title='Javier Blas, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2026-06-16\/iran-war-china-now-has-a-powerful-new-oil-price-weapon&quot;&gt;China Has a Powerful New Oil Price Weapon&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Bloomberg&lt;\/em&gt;, 16 juin 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/OsvIE\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>De plus, la hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie a offert \u00e0 P\u00e9kin une autre opportunit\u00e9&#160;: la Chine est en effet le seul pays dont l\u2019industrie est en mesure de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 la demande croissante de technologies propres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>P\u00e9kin a ainsi export\u00e9 pour l\u2019\u00e9quivalent de 92 milliards d\u2019euros de batteries, voitures \u00e9lectriques, \u00e9quipements r\u00e9seau et capacit\u00e9s de production d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 propre au cours des quatre premiers mois de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, contre 47 milliards en 2022.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Au premier trimestre de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, les ventes de voitures \u00e9lectriques dans la r\u00e9gion Asie-Pacifique (hors Chine) ont augment\u00e9 de 80&#160;% par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, et de 75&#160;% en Am\u00e9rique latine.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Im0s0\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Indirectement, la Chine pourrait aussi b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier strat\u00e9giquement de l\u2019affaiblissement de la posture am\u00e9ricaine au Moyen-Orient et en Asie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les pays du Golfe, vis\u00e9s par plusieurs milliers de drones et de missiles iraniens, cherchent d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 diversifier leurs partenariats.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Plusieurs responsables du Golfe ont ainsi d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que leurs gouvernements ont engag\u00e9 des discussions visant \u00e0 \u00ab&#160;r\u00e9duire leur d\u00e9pendance vis-\u00e0-vis des \u00c9tats-Unis&#160;\u00bb, notamment en renfor\u00e7ant leur coop\u00e9ration en mati\u00e8re de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 avec des pays europ\u00e9ens et asiatiques&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-341566' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/06\/18\/la-chine-a-t-elle-gagne-la-guerre-en-iran\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-341566' title='Adam Rasgon, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/06\/15\/world\/middleeast\/gulf-iran-war-us.html&quot;&gt;Gulf Countries Confront Questions About Relying on U.S. for Protection&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The New York Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 15 juin 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/DlYrc\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>De plus, pour mener sa guerre, Washington a transf\u00e9r\u00e9 des unit\u00e9s et des syst\u00e8mes de d\u00e9fense antimissiles depuis la Cor\u00e9e du Sud et le Japon, et il n\u2019est pas clair \u00e0 ce stade si elles seront de nouveau d\u00e9ploy\u00e9es en Asie.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement, l\u2019arm\u00e9e am\u00e9ricaine a consomm\u00e9 en trois mois de guerre <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/04\/24\/les-etats-unis-ont-ils-encore-assez-de-munitions-pour-reprendre-la-guerre-contre-liran\/\">un nombre consid\u00e9rable de munitions<\/a>. Or, ces armes (Tomahawks, JDAM, drones Predator) n\u00e9cessitent toutes des terres rares pour leurs syst\u00e8mes de guidage de pr\u00e9cision, dont la Chine contr\u00f4le aujourd\u2019hui 70&#160;% de l\u2019exploitation et 90&#160;% de la transformation.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/j09on\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La campagne militaire am\u00e9ricaine a \u00e9galement fourni \u00e0 P\u00e9kin des informations pr\u00e9cieuses sur <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/03\/11\/comment-le-pentagone-sappuie-sur-lia-pour-mener-sa-campagne-de-bombardements-en-iran\/\">l\u2019utilisation de l\u2019IA<\/a> par le Pentagone, les nouveaux \u00e9quipements am\u00e9ricains, la rotation de ses groupes a\u00e9ronavals, mais aussi sur l\u2019incapacit\u00e9 de Washington \u00e0 transformer des gains tactiques spectaculaires en victoire strat\u00e9gique.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/JO4C1\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En effet, la le\u00e7on la plus importante que P\u00e9kin pourrait tirer du conflit est que l\u2019Iran n\u2019a pas eu besoin de vaincre militairement les \u00c9tats-Unis, ce qui aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 impossible, mais qu&rsquo;il a pu utiliser le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, presque son seul levier, comme moyen de pression sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale. En jouant la montre \u00e0 l&rsquo;approche des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat, avec des prix de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie et l\u2019inflation en hausse, il aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 possible d&rsquo;obtenir <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/06\/17\/les-14-points-du-protocole-daccord-entre-les-etats-unis-et-liran-texte-integral-dune-capitulation-americaine\/\">un accord particuli\u00e8rement avantageux<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quatre signaux faibles indiquent que P\u00e9kin pourrait \u00eatre le v\u00e9ritable vainqueur de la guerre contre T\u00e9h\u00e9ran.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":341570,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":4,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4813],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[531],"class_list":["post-341566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iran-la-guerre-du-changement-de-regime","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-chine"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":341570,"excerpt":"Quatre signaux faibles indiquent que P\u00e9kin pourrait \u00eatre le v\u00e9ritable vainqueur de la guerre contre T\u00e9h\u00e9ran.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - 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