{"id":333584,"date":"2026-05-15T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T04:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=333584"},"modified":"2026-05-15T02:45:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T00:45:12","slug":"economie-russe-vers-une-quasi-stagnation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/15\/economie-russe-vers-une-quasi-stagnation\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9conomie russe&#160;: vers une quasi-stagnation&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Mardi 12 mai, le vice-Premier ministre Alexandre Novak a indiqu\u00e9 que les nouvelles pr\u00e9visions du minist\u00e8re du D\u00e9veloppement \u00e9conomique tablent sur une croissance du PIB de 0,4&#160;% en 2026, contre 1,3&#160;% dans les pr\u00e9visions de septembre dernier, et de 1,4&#160;% en 2027, contre 2,8&#160;% auparavant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La croissance ne devrait revenir \u00e0 2,4&#160;% qu&rsquo;en 2029&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-333584' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/15\/economie-russe-vers-une-quasi-stagnation\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-333584' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.vedomosti.ru\/economics\/news\/2026\/05\/12\/1196559-novak-v-2026&quot;&gt;\u041d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043a&amp;#160;: \u0432 2026 \u0433. \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0442 0,4&amp;#160;%&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Vedomosti&lt;\/em&gt;, 12 mai 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L&rsquo;\u00e9conomie russe s\u2019\u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 contract\u00e9e de 0,3&#160;% au premier trimestre 2026.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>De mani\u00e8re notable, Novak a maintenu inchang\u00e9e la pr\u00e9vision de prix du baril de p\u00e9trole \u00e0 59 dollars pour 2026, alors que depuis le d\u00e9but de la guerre en Iran, le prix du baril d\u2019Oural s\u2019\u00e9change \u00e0 plus de 100 dollars.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>C&rsquo;est potentiellement un signe des difficult\u00e9s \u00e0 long terme que <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/11\/economie-russe-les-frappes-ukrainiennes-de-drones-ont-empeche-la-russie-de-profiter-des-prix-eleves-du-petrole-en-avril\/\">les attaques ukrainiennes<\/a> font peser sur l\u2019industrie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re russe.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/AI5vn\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Depuis le d\u00e9but de l&rsquo;invasion \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle de l&rsquo;Ukraine en 2022, la Russie conna\u00eet une surchauffe \u00e9conomique, avec une croissance aliment\u00e9e \u00e0 un rythme soutenu par les d\u00e9penses militaires, ce qui lui a notamment permis d&rsquo;\u00e9viter les cons\u00e9quences imm\u00e9diates des sanctions occidentales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ainsi, sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode,\u00a0 la valeur ajout\u00e9e des branches li\u00e9es \u00e0 l&rsquo;effort de guerre a progress\u00e9 de 20&#160;%, tandis que celle de l&rsquo;ensemble des autres branches manufacturi\u00e8res n&rsquo;a augment\u00e9 que de 0,4&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-333584' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/15\/economie-russe-vers-une-quasi-stagnation\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-333584' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bofit.fi\/en\/forecasting\/latest-forecast-for-russia\/&quot;&gt;BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2026\u20132028&lt;\/a&gt;, The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, 30 mars 2026.&amp;nbsp;&lt;span class=&#039;whitespace-nowrap&#039;&gt;&lt;span id=&#039;easy-footnote-2-333584&#039; class=&#039;easy-footnote-margin-adjust&#039;&gt;&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;span class=&#039;easy-footnote&#039;&gt;&lt;a href=&#039;https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/15\/economie-russe-vers-une-quasi-stagnation\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-333584&#039; title=&#039;&#039;&gt;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;\/sup&gt;&lt;\/a&gt;&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/span&gt;.&lt;\/li&gt;\n&lt;\/ul&gt;\n\n\n\n&lt;p&gt;Les causes de ce ralentissement sont structurelles, Novak ayant invoqu\u00e9 la rupture des cha\u00eenes d&amp;rsquo;approvisionnement en biens, services et capitaux due aux sanctions, ainsi que les p\u00e9nuries de main-d&amp;rsquo;\u0153uvre et la r\u00e9orientation des priorit\u00e9s budg\u00e9taires.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\n\n\n&lt;p&gt;Derri\u00e8re la stagnation se cache en effet une p\u00e9nurie de travail et de capital.&amp;nbsp;&lt;\/p&gt;\n\n\n\n&lt;ul class=&quot;wp-block-list&quot;&gt;\n&lt;li&gt;La main-d&amp;rsquo;\u0153uvre reste un goulot d&amp;rsquo;\u00e9tranglement significatif et &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/07\/economie-russe-comment-la-guerre-de-poutine-a-detruit-le-marche-de-lemploi-pour-les-decennies-a-venir\/&quot;&gt;pourrait l&amp;rsquo;\u00eatre \u00e0 long terme&lt;\/a&gt;, alors que la Russie \u00e9tait pratiquement en situation de plein emploi fin 2025, et que la guerre accentue rapidement la tendance.&lt;\/li&gt;\n\n\n\n&lt;li&gt;L&amp;rsquo;investissement est quant \u00e0 lui limit\u00e9 par la politique mon\u00e9taire&amp;#160;: les taux directeurs de la Banque de Russie sont pass\u00e9s de 21&amp;#160;% en 2024 \u00e0 14,5&amp;#160;% actuellement mais les risques inflationnistes perdurent.&lt;\/li&gt;\n\n\n\n&lt;li&gt;Novak pr\u00e9voit que la hausse des prix atteindra 5,2&amp;#160;% en 2026, puis redescendra vers l&amp;rsquo;objectif de 4&amp;#160;% \u00e0 partir de 2027.&lt;\/li&gt;\n&lt;\/ul&gt;\n\n\n\n&lt;div class=&quot;iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw&quot;&gt;\n\t&lt;div&gt;\n\t\t&lt;iframe class=&quot;absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l&quot; title=&quot;titolo&quot; aria-label=&quot;Interactive line chart&quot; src=&quot;\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ZNHDK\/&quot; scrolling=&quot;no&quot; frameborder=&quot;0&quot;&gt;&lt;\/iframe&gt;\n\t&lt;\/div&gt;\n&lt;\/div&gt;\n\n\n\n&lt;p&gt;La croissance est \u00e9galement limit\u00e9e par les marges budg\u00e9taires de plus en plus faibles de l&amp;rsquo;\u00c9tat russe, le d\u00e9ficit des quatre premiers mois de l&amp;rsquo;ann\u00e9e s&amp;rsquo;\u00e9levant \u00e0 5 900 milliards de roubles, soit bien plus que les pr\u00e9visions pour l&amp;rsquo;ensemble de l&amp;rsquo;ann\u00e9e (3 800)&amp;nbsp;&lt;span class=&#039;whitespace-nowrap&#039;&gt;&lt;span id=&#039;easy-footnote-3-333584&#039; class=&#039;easy-footnote-margin-adjust&#039;&gt;&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;span class=&#039;easy-footnote&#039;&gt;&lt;a href=&#039;https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/15\/economie-russe-vers-une-quasi-stagnation\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-333584&#039; title=&#039;&#039;&gt;&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;\/sup&gt;&lt;\/a&gt;&lt;\/span&gt;&lt;\/span&gt;\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-05-08\/russia-s-budget-gap-widens-to-record-despite-oil-revenue-boost&quot;&gt;Russia\u2019s Budget Gap Widens to Record Despite Oil Revenue Boost&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Bloomberg&lt;\/em&gt;, 8 mai 2026.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon les derni\u00e8res estimations du gouvernement, la croissance r\u00e9vis\u00e9e du PIB russe devrait s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 0,4&#160;&#160;% en 2026, contre 1,3&#160;&#160;% dans les pr\u00e9visions de septembre dernier.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":333589,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[550],"class_list":["post-333584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-russie"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":333589,"excerpt":"Selon les derni\u00e8res estimations du gouvernement, la croissance r\u00e9vis\u00e9e du PIB russe devrait s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 0,4 % en 2026, contre 1,3 % dans les pr\u00e9visions de septembre dernier.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - 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