{"id":333515,"date":"2026-05-14T13:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=333515"},"modified":"2026-05-13T20:41:30","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T18:41:30","slug":"poutine-est-convaincu-de-pouvoir-gagner-militairement-en-ukraine-mais-larmee-russe-en-a-t-elle-les-moyens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/14\/poutine-est-convaincu-de-pouvoir-gagner-militairement-en-ukraine-mais-larmee-russe-en-a-t-elle-les-moyens\/","title":{"rendered":"Poutine est convaincu de pouvoir gagner militairement en Ukraine \u2013 mais l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe en a-t-elle les moyens&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Selon des sources proches de Kiev et de Moscou, Poutine se serait recentr\u00e9 ces derniers mois sur la conqu\u00eate militaire du Donbass plut\u00f4t que sur la perspective d\u2019obtenir les r\u00e9gions de Donetsk et de Louhansk dans le cadre d\u2019un accord&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-333515' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/14\/poutine-est-convaincu-de-pouvoir-gagner-militairement-en-ukraine-mais-larmee-russe-en-a-t-elle-les-moyens\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-333515' title='Max Seddon, Christopher Miller et Henry Foy, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/09273889-e9b5-4317-b989-911c84df36fa?syn-25a6b1a6=1&quot;&gt;Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy cool on US-led peace talks&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Financial Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 13 mai 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Depuis 2022, le pr\u00e9sident russe avait exprim\u00e9 \u00e0 plusieurs reprises sa volont\u00e9 de geler le front sur ses lignes actuelles en \u00e9change d\u2019un retrait ukrainien du Donbass.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bien qu\u2019il n\u2019a jamais cess\u00e9 de nourrir l\u2019espoir de de s\u2019emparer militairement de l\u2019Ukraine, Poutine avait demand\u00e9 \u00e0 Trump l\u2019an dernier lors de leur rencontre bilat\u00e9rale en Alaska de convaincre Zelensky d\u2019acc\u00e9der \u00e0 ses demandes pour mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-333515' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/14\/poutine-est-convaincu-de-pouvoir-gagner-militairement-en-ukraine-mais-larmee-russe-en-a-t-elle-les-moyens\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-333515' title='Christopher Miller, Amy Mackinnon, Max Seddon et Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/6b0b4912-9438-4de0-aebe-2a8dd804cbab?syn-25a6b1a6=1&quot;&gt;Putin demanded Ukraine cede Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for freezing rest of front line&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Financial Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 16 ao\u00fbt 2025.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/tCBxP\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Poutine aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 convaincu par son \u00e9tat-major que les forces russes pourraient s&#8217;emparer de la totalit\u00e9 du Donbass d&rsquo;ici l&rsquo;automne. Selon ses commandants, l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne serait sur le point de s\u2019effondrer et serait \u00e0 court d\u2019effectifs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette \u00e9valuation ne correspond pas \u00e0 la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 du terrain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le groupe d\u2019analystes ukrainiens Deep State estime qu\u2019il faudrait <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/04\/02\/a-son-rythme-actuel-larmee-russe-pourrait-entierement-occuper-le-donbass-dici-fin-2029\/\">3 ans et demi de guerre<\/a> \u00e0 la Russie pour contr\u00f4ler la totalit\u00e9 de l\u2019oblast de Donetsk, en maintenant son rythme enregistr\u00e9 au cours du premier trimestre de l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u2014 soit pas avant 2029.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019intensification des frappes ukrainiennes en profondeur dans le territoire russe fragilisent de plus en plus les lignes d\u2019approvisionnement de l\u2019arm\u00e9e, entra\u00eenent des p\u00e9nuries de munitions sur le front et perturbent la rotation des troupes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Il faut d\u00e9sormais 36 assauts en moyenne \u00e0 l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe pour capturer 1 km\u00b2 de territoire ukrainien suppl\u00e9mentaire, soit un ratio tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9 par rapport aux mois et ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/wItX3\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette faible progression r\u00e9sulte autant d&rsquo;une d\u00e9connexion entre les objectifs fix\u00e9s par le Kremlin et les capacit\u00e9s de l&rsquo;arm\u00e9e russe que d&rsquo;une strat\u00e9gie efficace de contre-attaques localis\u00e9es men\u00e9es par l&rsquo;arm\u00e9e ukrainienne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon des sources militaires ukrainiennes, l\u2019offensive russe a \u00e9chou\u00e9 \u00e0 s\u2019emparer de la <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/04\/16\/sur-le-front-ukrainien-loffensive-russe-de-printemps-senlise\/\">ville de Kostiantynivka,<\/a> dans la r\u00e9gion de Donetsk, avant le 25 avril, comme le pr\u00e9voyait l\u2019objectif fix\u00e9 par le Kremlin.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En f\u00e9vrier, des services de renseignement de plusieurs pays occidentaux concluaient que Poutine estimait qu\u2019il \u00ab&#160;\u00e9tait en train de gagner&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-333515' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/14\/poutine-est-convaincu-de-pouvoir-gagner-militairement-en-ukraine-mais-larmee-russe-en-a-t-elle-les-moyens\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-333515' title='David E. Sanger et Anton Troianovski, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/02\/17\/us\/politics\/trump-witkoff-kushner-diplomacy.html&quot;&gt;Trump Bets on Diplomacy Without Diplomats&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The New York Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 17 f\u00e9vrier 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>, malgr\u00e9 l&rsquo;am\u00e9lioration des capacit\u00e9s militaires ukrainiennes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors que l\u2019arm\u00e9e peine \u00e0 atteindre ses objectifs et ne serait pas en mesure d\u2019occuper la r\u00e9gion de Donetsk avant 2029, le commandement russe aurait convaincu Poutine que ses forces pourraient s\u2019emparer de la totalit\u00e9 du Donbass d\u2019ici l\u2019automne.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":333519,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-333515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":333519,"excerpt":"Alors que l\u2019arm\u00e9e peine \u00e0 atteindre ses objectifs et ne serait pas en mesure d\u2019occuper la r\u00e9gion de Donetsk avant 2029, le commandement russe aurait convaincu Poutine que ses forces pourraient s\u2019emparer de la totalit\u00e9 du Donbass d\u2019ici l\u2019automne.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Poutine est convaincu de pouvoir gagner militairement en Ukraine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/14\/poutine-est-convaincu-de-pouvoir-gagner-militairement-en-ukraine-mais-larmee-russe-en-a-t-elle-les-moyens\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Poutine est convaincu de pouvoir gagner militairement en Ukraine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alors que l\u2019arm\u00e9e peine \u00e0 atteindre ses objectifs et ne serait pas en mesure d\u2019occuper la r\u00e9gion de Donetsk avant 2029, le commandement 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