{"id":333206,"date":"2026-05-12T15:06:41","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T13:06:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=333206"},"modified":"2026-05-12T15:06:45","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T13:06:45","slug":"vers-un-nouveau-choc-chinois","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/12\/vers-un-nouveau-choc-chinois\/","title":{"rendered":"Vers un \u00ab&#160;nouveau choc&#160;\u00bb chinois&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>P\u00e9kin \u00e9tend d\u00e9sormais sa domination industrielle \u00e0 des intrants et produits situ\u00e9s plus en amont des cha\u00eenes de valeur, comme les produits chimiques, les machines-outils et les \u00e9quipements industriels, tout en confortant son avance dans les secteurs clefs de la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique&#160;: plaquettes de silicium, utilis\u00e9es dans les semi-conducteurs, minerais critiques et aimants notamment&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-333206' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/12\/vers-un-nouveau-choc-chinois\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-333206' title='Camille Boullenois, Malcolm Black et Alessia Caruso, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/rhg.com\/research\/chinas-next-generation-industrial-policy\/&quot;&gt;China\u2019s Next-Generation Industrial Policy&lt;\/a&gt;, Rhodium Group, 11 mai 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La Chine pourrait ainsi passer d&rsquo;une politique industrielle sectorielle \u00e0 une approche globale qui permettrait d&rsquo;accro\u00eetre davantage son exc\u00e9dent commercial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Lorsqu\u2019on le rapport au PIB, le premier choc chinois a \u00e9t\u00e9 bien plus massif que le second&#160;: entre 2000 et 2008, le volume des exportations de biens de P\u00e9kin a \u00e9t\u00e9 multipli\u00e9 par 4, et son exc\u00e9dent courant a bondi d\u2019environ 8 points de pourcentage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le \u00ab&#160;deuxi\u00e8me&#160;\u00bb choc chinois, dont on peut placer le d\u00e9but autour de 2018, n\u2019a abouti respectivement qu\u2019\u00e0 une hausse de 50&#160;% des exportations, et \u00e0 une augmentation de son exc\u00e9dent de 3,5 points.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette diff\u00e9rence s\u2019explique notamment par l\u2019explosion du PIB de la Chine, qui est pass\u00e9 de 1 360 milliards de dollars en 2000 \u00e0 18 740 milliards en 2024 \u2014 soit une hausse de pr\u00e8s de 1 300&#160;%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le volume des exportations est quant \u00e0 lui pass\u00e9 de 266 milliards de dollars en 2001 \u00e0 37 720 milliards l\u2019an dernier. En 2025, l\u2019exc\u00e9dent commercial de la Chine a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois les 1 000 milliards de dollars.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/K5YPH\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si les gains de parts de march\u00e9 par des entreprises chinoises se concentrent actuellement dans le secteur des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques et des \u00e9nergies renouvelables, soit des industries que l\u2019\u00c9tat chinois a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 subventionner d\u00e8s les ann\u00e9es 2000, le \u00ab&#160;prochain choc&#160;\u00bb pourrait concerner des segments qui sont traditionnellement domin\u00e9s par les pays occidentaux.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les intrants et \u00e9quipements industriels chinois sont de plus en plus int\u00e9gr\u00e9s dans des produits fabriqu\u00e9s et export\u00e9s par des pays tiers, ce qui cr\u00e9e d\u2019ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 des d\u00e9pendances indirectes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le nombre de produits pour lesquels la Chine repr\u00e9sente plus de 50&#160;% des exportations mondiales a quant \u00e0 lui presque doubl\u00e9 entre 2021 et 2024, passant de 192 \u00e0 315.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En parall\u00e8le, l\u2019\u00c9tat chinois compte augmenter les investissements dans plusieurs technologies de pointe \u2013 conduite autonome, intelligence int\u00e9gr\u00e9e, biofabrication\u2026 \u2013 dans le cadre de son dernier plan quinquennal, adopt\u00e9 en mars.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/sSqUN\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Le Rhodium Group estime que jusqu\u2019\u00e0 12&#160;% des exportations manufacturi\u00e8res des pays du G7, soit environ 650 milliards de dollars par an, pourraient \u00eatre capt\u00e9es par des entreprises chinoises d\u2019ici 2030 si la tendance actuelle se poursuit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>P\u00e9kin a pris une avance consid\u00e9rable ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es dans plusieurs segments clefs pour les \u00e9conomies occidentales, comme les robots industriels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Depuis 2021, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/09\/26\/la-chine-installe-quatre-fois-plus-de-robots-industriels-que-lunion-et-neuf-fois-plus-que-les-etats-unis\/\">la Chine installe ainsi plus de robots<\/a> dans ses usines que le reste du monde dans son ensemble.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans son 15e plan quinquennal, P\u00e9kin a indiqu\u00e9 vouloir passer de l\u2019automatisation industrielle classique \u00e0 une robotique de pointe qui int\u00e8gre les nouvelles avanc\u00e9es faites dans le domaine de l\u2019intelligence artificielle.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors qu&rsquo;elle conforte sa domination industrielle dans le domaine des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques et des \u00e9nergies renouvelables, P\u00e9kin investit massivement pour capter de nouvelles parts de march\u00e9 situ\u00e9es en amont des cha\u00eenes d&rsquo;approvisionnement mondiales.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":333208,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[531],"class_list":["post-333206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-chine"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default","_thumbnail_id":333208,"excerpt":"Alors qu'elle conforte sa domination industrielle dans le domaine des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques et des \u00e9nergies renouvelables, P\u00e9kin investit massivement pour capter de nouvelles parts de march\u00e9 situ\u00e9es en amont des cha\u00eenes d'approvisionnement mondiales.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>P\u00e9kin veut passer d\u2019une politique industrielle sectorielle \u00e0 une approche globale<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/05\/12\/vers-un-nouveau-choc-chinois\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"P\u00e9kin veut passer d\u2019une politique industrielle sectorielle \u00e0 une approche globale\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alors qu&#039;elle conforte sa domination industrielle dans le domaine des v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques et des \u00e9nergies renouvelables, P\u00e9kin investit massivement pour 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