{"id":325161,"date":"2026-04-02T15:06:29","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T13:06:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=325161"},"modified":"2026-04-02T15:06:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T13:06:31","slug":"a-son-rythme-actuel-larmee-russe-pourrait-entierement-occuper-le-donbass-dici-fin-2029","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/04\/02\/a-son-rythme-actuel-larmee-russe-pourrait-entierement-occuper-le-donbass-dici-fin-2029\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c0 son rythme actuel, l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe pourrait enti\u00e8rement occuper le Donbass d\u2019ici fin 2029"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Selon le groupe d\u2019analystes ukrainiens Deep State, dans une nouvelle mise \u00e0 jour de la progression russe publi\u00e9e hier, mercredi 1er avril, Moscou aurait conquis 160 km\u00b2 de territoire suppl\u00e9mentaire en Ukraine au cours du mois de mars \u2014 soit une hausse de 27&#160;% par rapport au mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, et de 20&#160;% par rapport \u00e0 la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode en 2025&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-325161' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/04\/02\/a-son-rythme-actuel-larmee-russe-pourrait-entierement-occuper-le-donbass-dici-fin-2029\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-325161' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/t.me\/DeepStateUA\/23359&quot;&gt;Publication de Deep State sur Telegram&lt;\/a&gt;, 1er avril 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 cette acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration, l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe peine \u00e0 accomplir ses objectifs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Deep State estime qu\u2019il faudrait encore 3 ans et demi de guerre \u00e0 la Russie pour contr\u00f4ler la totalit\u00e9 de l\u2019oblast de Donetsk, en maintenant son rythme enregistr\u00e9 au cours des trois premiers mois de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La r\u00e9gion de Louhansk est quant \u00e0 elle quasiment enti\u00e8rement sous contr\u00f4le russe.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/yVKsd\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Le groupe ukrainie est toutefois conservateur dans la mani\u00e8re dont il mesure l\u2019\u00e9volution des \u00e9quilibres sur le front. D\u2019autres analystes estiment que la progression russe en mars serait en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 plus proche des 100 km\u00b2, soit un chiffre largement en-de\u00e7\u00e0 de mars 2025&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-325161' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/04\/02\/a-son-rythme-actuel-larmee-russe-pourrait-entierement-occuper-le-donbass-dici-fin-2029\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-325161' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/x.com\/clement_molin\/status\/2039336580112863705&quot;&gt;Publication de Cl\u00e9ment Molin sur X&lt;\/a&gt;, 1er avril 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, l\u2019Institute for the Study of War estime que les forces russes ont progress\u00e9 \u00e0 un rythme moyen de 5,5 km\u00b2 par jour sur la p\u00e9riode janvier-mars \u2014 soit deux fois moins qu\u2019en 2025&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-325161' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/04\/02\/a-son-rythme-actuel-larmee-russe-pourrait-entierement-occuper-le-donbass-dici-fin-2029\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-325161' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/understandingwar.org\/research\/russia-ukraine\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-31-2026\/&quot;&gt;Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2026&lt;\/a&gt;, Institute for the Study of War.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/16\/larmee-ukrainienne-tire-profit-de-la-deconnexion-des-forces-russes-de-starlink-pour-contre-attaquer\/\">perte de l\u2019acc\u00e8s \u00e0 Starlink<\/a>, les efforts du Kremlin visant \u00e0 limiter l&rsquo;utilisation de la messagerie Telegram \u2014 pourtant tr\u00e8s utilis\u00e9e par les soldats russes sur le front \u2014, ainsi que la contre-offensive ukrainienne lanc\u00e9e dans le Sud du pays fin janvier ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 ralentir la progression russe ces derniers mois.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selon Deep State, le nombre d\u2019assauts lanc\u00e9s par l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe est pourtant rest\u00e9 relativement stable, ne d\u00e9clinant que de 2&#160;% entre f\u00e9vrier et mars. Les analystes ukrainiens notent toutefois que \u00ab&#160;l&rsquo;intensit\u00e9 et la qualit\u00e9 des attaques ont augment\u00e9&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette am\u00e9lioration de la qualit\u00e9 des assauts russes, qui se traduit notamment par une utilisation accrue d\u2019engins m\u00e9canis\u00e9s (blind\u00e9s ou civils), a \u00e9t\u00e9 rendue possible par un effort d\u2019accumulation de r\u00e9serves au cours de l\u2019hiver&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-325161' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/04\/02\/a-son-rythme-actuel-larmee-russe-pourrait-entierement-occuper-le-donbass-dici-fin-2029\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-325161' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/t.me\/zvizdecmanhustu\/3330&quot;&gt;Publication sur Telegram de Zv\u0438\u0437\u0434\u0435\u0446 \u041c\u0430\u043d\u0433\u0443\u0441\u0442\u0443&lt;\/a&gt;, 1er avril 2026.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/LKjHx\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les chiffres de l\u2019avanc\u00e9e russe en Ukraine doivent se mesurer \u00e0 la hauteur des objectifs fix\u00e9s par le commandement russe. Pour 2026, on pourrait en d\u00e9gager deux principaux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le premier serait de progresser en direction de la ceinture de forteresses ukrainiennes dans la r\u00e9gion de Donetsk, et notamment de capturer la ville de Sloviansk.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Il s&rsquo;agit de l\u2019objectif le plus atteignable pour Moscou, notamment en raison de la priorisation par Kiev d\u2019autres secteurs du front.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>N\u00e9anmoins, et au vu des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents assauts men\u00e9s sur des grandes villes, une capture de Sloviansk dans le cadre de <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/03\/24\/larmee-russe-a-lance-son-offensive-de-printemps\/\">l\u2019offensive de printemps-\u00e9t\u00e9<\/a>, lanc\u00e9e fin mars, d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e para\u00eet tr\u00e8s peu probable, selon l\u2019analyste Andrew Perpetua&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-325161' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/04\/02\/a-son-rythme-actuel-larmee-russe-pourrait-entierement-occuper-le-donbass-dici-fin-2029\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-325161' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/x.com\/AndrewPerpetua\/status\/2038590061906633041&quot;&gt;Publication d&amp;rsquo;Andrew Perpetua sur X&lt;\/a&gt;, 30 mars 2026.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Le deuxi\u00e8me objectif de l\u2019\u00c9tat-major russe est de progresser dans l\u2019ouest de la r\u00e9gion de Zaporijia, le long du Dniepr, en direction de la capitale r\u00e9gionale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u00e0 encore, aucune perc\u00e9e majeure ne semble pour l\u2019heure envisageable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pour ce faire, Moscou devrait s\u2019emparer de la ville d\u2019Orikhiv, \u00e0 50 kilom\u00e8tres au sud-est de Zaporijia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or, la contre-offensive ukrainienne lanc\u00e9e en janvier a <em>de facto <\/em>mis fin \u00e0 toute avanc\u00e9e dans ce secteur du front, et a m\u00eame contraint Moscou \u00e0 reculer dans certains secteurs des oblasts de Zaporijia et de Dnipropetrovsk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon les derni\u00e8res donn\u00e9es sur la progression de l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe en Ukraine publi\u00e9es hier, mercredi 1er avril, Moscou a avanc\u00e9 de 160 km\u00b2 en mars, soit une hausse de 27&#160;&#160;% par rapport \u00e0 f\u00e9vrier. <\/p>\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 cette acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration, le Kremlin peine \u00e0 accomplir ses objectifs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":325160,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4850],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-325161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","editorial_format-briefings","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u00c0 ce rythme, Moscou pourrait occuper le Donbass d\u2019ici fin 2029<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/04\/02\/a-son-rythme-actuel-larmee-russe-pourrait-entierement-occuper-le-donbass-dici-fin-2029\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00c0 ce rythme, Moscou pourrait occuper le Donbass d\u2019ici fin 2029\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Selon les derni\u00e8res donn\u00e9es sur la progression de l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe en Ukraine publi\u00e9es hier, mercredi 1er avril, Moscou a avanc\u00e9 de 160 km\u00b2 en mars, soit une hausse de 27&#160;% par rapport \u00e0 f\u00e9vrier.   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