{"id":323325,"date":"2026-03-20T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=323325"},"modified":"2026-03-20T18:49:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T17:49:02","slug":"lannee-2026-va-t-elle-etre-marquee-par-le-retour-dun-super-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/03\/20\/lannee-2026-va-t-elle-etre-marquee-par-le-retour-dun-super-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019ann\u00e9e 2026 va-t-elle \u00eatre marqu\u00e9e par le retour d\u2019un \u00ab&#160;super&#160;\u00bb El Ni\u00f1o&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o est un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne climatique cyclique caract\u00e9ris\u00e9 par une \u00e9l\u00e9vation de la temp\u00e9rature de surface de l\u2019oc\u00e9an Pacifique tropical central et oriental. Il se manifeste par un affaiblissement des aliz\u00e9s, ce qui emp\u00eache les eaux chaudes de rester \u00e0 l\u2019ouest et les fait progresser vers l\u2019est, jusqu\u2019aux c\u00f4tes de l\u2019Am\u00e9rique du Sud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les ann\u00e9es au cours desquelles un \u00e9pisode El Ni\u00f1o se produit sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement plus chaudes, avec une augmentation moyenne des temp\u00e9ratures mondiales d\u2019environ 0,1 \u00e0 0,2\u202f\u00b0C.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette hausse est particuli\u00e8rement marqu\u00e9e \u00e0 la surface de la mer. Dans les zones touch\u00e9es, des anomalies peuvent atteindre +2 \u00e0 +2,5\u202f\u00b0C par rapport \u00e0 la normale saisonni\u00e8re.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/SlbCA\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Plusieurs mod\u00e8les m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques anticipent le retour d\u2019un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne El Ni\u00f1o particuli\u00e8rement intense cette ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>S\u2019il existe toujours un certain degr\u00e9 d\u2019incertitude, le Service m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique national am\u00e9ricain estime que la probabilit\u00e9 qu\u2019El Ni\u00f1o apparaisse sur la p\u00e9riode allant de juin \u00e0 ao\u00fbt est de 62&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-323325' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/03\/20\/lannee-2026-va-t-elle-etre-marquee-par-le-retour-dun-super-el-nino\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-323325' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.pdf&quot;&gt;EL NI\u00d1O\/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION, Climate Prediction Center&lt;\/a&gt;, NOAA, 12 mars 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La plupart des mod\u00e8les sugg\u00e8rent qu\u2019il atteindrait son pic au d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2027.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes El Ni\u00f1o ont des r\u00e9percussions tr\u00e8s importantes sur le climat \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ils ont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement lieu tous les deux \u00e0 sept ans. Le dernier \u00e9pisode s&rsquo;est produit en 2023-2024, contribuant \u00e0 faire de <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/05\/a-lechelle-globale-les-records-de-temperature-ont-ete-battus-durant-13-mois-consecutifs\/\">2024 l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e la plus chaude<\/a> jamais mesur\u00e9e.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>S\u2019il n\u2019est pas in\u00e9dit de voir deux \u00e9pisodes si proches l\u2019un de l\u2019autre, le pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 parmi les cinq plus intenses jamais enregistr\u00e9s.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/1Gx4N\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les cons\u00e9quences climatiques d\u2019El Ni\u00f1o varient selon les r\u00e9gions&#160;: dans les pays du Sud comme en Australie, en Indon\u00e9sie ou en Afrique du Sud, la s\u00e9cheresse augmente le risque de feux de for\u00eats&#160;; en Am\u00e9rique du Nord, comme aux \u00c9tats-Unis et dans le golfe du Mexique, El Ni\u00f1o apporte un temps plus humide, \u00e9galement associ\u00e9 \u00e0 de fortes pluies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Comme le note James Hansen, le directeur du d\u00e9partement de Sciences climatiques de l&rsquo;universit\u00e9 Columbia, plusieurs facteurs clefs influenceront la force d\u2019El Ni\u00f1o&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-323325' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/03\/20\/lannee-2026-va-t-elle-etre-marquee-par-le-retour-dun-super-el-nino\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-323325' title='James Hansen, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/jimehansen.substack.com\/p\/super-el-nino-super-warming-is-the&quot;&gt;Super El Nino&amp;#160;? Super Warming is the Main Issue.&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, Climate Uncensored, 20 mars 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La force et la succession des vagues de Kelvin, qui transportent la chaleur accumul\u00e9e dans l\u2019ouest du Pacifique vers l\u2019est, emp\u00eachant l\u2019upwelling d\u2019eau froide venue des profondeurs&#160;;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La variabilit\u00e9 des vents \u00e9quatoriaux, qui peut affaiblir ou inverser les aliz\u00e9s normaux et ainsi d\u00e9clencher le d\u00e9placement des eaux chaudes vers l\u2019est&#160;;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Et la chaleur oc\u00e9anique pr\u00e9existante, qui agit comme une \u00ab&#160;batterie&#160;\u00bb stockant l\u2019\u00e9nergie thermique dans le Pacifique.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The El Nino cometh. <br><br>This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though its still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag b\/w ENSO and surface temp. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/agqcicaYIa\">pic.twitter.com\/agqcicaYIa<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hausfath\/status\/2029987884602712352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 6, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Selon le climatologue Zeke Hausfather, un retour d\u2019El Ni\u00f1o cette ann\u00e9e \u00ab&#160;rendrait 2027 tr\u00e8s probablement l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e la plus chaude jamais enregistr\u00e9e&#160;\u00bb, compte tenu du d\u00e9calage historique entre ENSO \u2014 le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne qui regroupe El Ni\u00f1o et La Ni\u00f1a \u2014 et la temp\u00e9rature de surface.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le dernier ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne climatique El Ni\u00f1o remonte \u00e0 2023-2024 et a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 faire de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024 la plus chaude jamais enregistr\u00e9e. <\/p>\n<p>Les projections sugg\u00e8rent la possible survenue d\u2019un nouvel \u00e9pisode au cours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, dont le pic d\u2019intensit\u00e9 pourrait \u00eatre atteint au d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2027.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":323329,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1730],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[2163],"class_list":["post-323325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energie-et-environnement","geo-monde"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":"default"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>2026 va-t-elle \u00eatre marqu\u00e9e par le retour d\u2019un \u00absuper\u00bb El Ni\u00f1o ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/03\/20\/lannee-2026-va-t-elle-etre-marquee-par-le-retour-dun-super-el-nino\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2026 va-t-elle \u00eatre marqu\u00e9e par le retour d\u2019un \u00absuper\u00bb El Ni\u00f1o ?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le dernier ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne climatique El Ni\u00f1o remonte \u00e0 2023-2024 et a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 faire de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024 la plus chaude jamais enregistr\u00e9e.   Les projections sugg\u00e8rent la possible survenue d\u2019un nouvel \u00e9pisode au cours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, dont le pic d\u2019intensit\u00e9 pourrait \u00eatre atteint au d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2027.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/03\/20\/lannee-2026-va-t-elle-etre-marquee-par-le-retour-dun-super-el-nino\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-20T18:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/gc-share-super-nino-26.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1902\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1064\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta 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