{"id":317000,"date":"2026-02-13T15:02:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T14:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=317000"},"modified":"2026-02-13T15:02:03","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T14:02:03","slug":"en-ciblant-les-combattants-russes-lukraine-peut-elle-gagner-la-guerre-dattrition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/13\/en-ciblant-les-combattants-russes-lukraine-peut-elle-gagner-la-guerre-dattrition\/","title":{"rendered":"En ciblant les combattants russes, l\u2019Ukraine peut-elle gagner la guerre d\u2019attrition&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>La guerre d\u2019attrition russe contre l\u2019Ukraine a ind\u00e9niablement favoris\u00e9 Moscou jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent. Dot\u00e9e d\u2019une \u00e9conomie onze fois plus importante, de quatre fois plus d\u2019hommes et de r\u00e9serves importantes de blind\u00e9s et de munitions accumul\u00e9es durant la guerre froide, l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe progresse chaque mois plus qu\u2019elle ne recule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Son rythme <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/02\/la-progression-de-larmee-russe-en-ukraine-a-ralenti-de-45-en-janvier\/\">a toutefois ralenti ces derniers mois<\/a> en raison des conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques, mais \u00e9galement de la saturation du front avec des drones qui menacent chaque mouvement de troupes et de v\u00e9hicules.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ce ralentissement s\u2019explique aussi par la baisse de la \u00ab&#160;qualit\u00e9&#160;\u00bb des hommes recrut\u00e9s par l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe pour combattre en Ukraine. L\u2019\u00e2ge moyen des combattants russes est pass\u00e9 de 25 ans en 2022 \u00e0 40 ans l\u2019an dernier.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En cons\u00e9quence, la progression de Moscou dans les principaux secteurs du front \u2014 Tchassiv Yar, Pokrovsk et Koupiansk notamment \u2014 s\u2019est compt\u00e9e en quelques dizaines de m\u00e8tres par jour l\u2019an dernier&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-317000' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/13\/en-ciblant-les-combattants-russes-lukraine-peut-elle-gagner-la-guerre-dattrition\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-317000' title='Seth G. Jones et Riley McCabe, &lt;a href=&quot;http:\/\/v&quot;&gt;Russia\u2019s Grinding War in Ukraine. Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power&lt;\/a&gt;, CSIS, 27 janvier 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/hRMXX\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 de g\u00e9n\u00e9reuses primes \u00e0 la signature vers\u00e9e aux volontaires s\u2019engageant dans l\u2019arm\u00e9e, Moscou semble \u00eatre en mesure d\u2019atteindre son objectif de recrutement de 35 000 soldats par mois, selon les donn\u00e9es de d\u00e9penses des gouvernements r\u00e9gionaux russes compil\u00e9es par Janis Kluge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette cible pourrait toutefois \u00eatre insuffisante pour faire face \u00e0 la hausse des pertes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le chef des forces ukrainiennes de syst\u00e8mes sans pilotes, Robert Brovdi, estime que l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe a perdu plus d\u2019hommes qu\u2019elle n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 en mesure d\u2019en recruter en d\u00e9cembre et en janvier&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-317000' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/13\/en-ciblant-les-combattants-russes-lukraine-peut-elle-gagner-la-guerre-dattrition\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-317000' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02aJKy4wRwuNRz5C1AjjLPXGAqdabhx5wSX3Qn7TGa1vozfLX3utiyyJtv7ESVz2utl&amp;amp;id=100004808732741&quot;&gt;Publication sur Facebook de \u0420\u043e\u0431\u0435\u0440\u0442 \u0411\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0434\u0456&lt;\/a&gt;, 5 f\u00e9vrier 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette tendance est confirm\u00e9e par le commandant en chef des arm\u00e9es ukrainiennes, Oleksandre Syrsky, qui a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 la semaine derni\u00e8re que le niveau de pertes russes \u00ab&#160;d\u00e9passait ses capacit\u00e9s de reconstitution&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-317000' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/13\/en-ciblant-les-combattants-russes-lukraine-peut-elle-gagner-la-guerre-dattrition\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-317000' title='\u0412\u0430\u043b\u0435\u0440\u0456\u0439 \u0423\u043b\u044c\u044f\u043d\u0435\u043d\u043a\u043e, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.rbc.ua\/rus\/news\/skilki-viyskovih-rf-zaraz-ukrayini-sirskiy-1770372052.html&quot;&gt;\u0421\u043a\u0456\u043b\u044c\u043a\u0438 \u0432\u0456\u0439\u0441\u044c\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0438\u0445 \u0420\u0424 \u0437\u0430\u0440\u0430\u0437 \u0432 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0456&amp;#160;: \u0421\u0438\u0440\u0441\u044c\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u043d\u0430\u0437\u0432\u0430\u0432 \u0446\u0438\u0444\u0440\u0438&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;RBC&lt;\/em&gt;, 6 f\u00e9vrier 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/UylfJ\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Plut\u00f4t que de chercher \u00e0 reprendre son territoire occup\u00e9 par les forces russes, au risque de subir d\u2019importantes pertes, l\u2019arm\u00e9e ukrainienne semble avoir adapt\u00e9 sa strat\u00e9gie pour viser avant tout les soldats russes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fin janvier, le ministre ukrainien de la D\u00e9fense, Mykha\u00eflo Fedorov, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que l\u2019objectif de Kiev \u00e9tait \u00ab&#160;d\u2019\u00e9liminer 50 000 soldats russes par mois&#160;\u00bb, contre environ 31 000 au cours du deuxi\u00e8me semestre 2025, selon les chiffres du CSIS.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le calcul derri\u00e8re cette strat\u00e9gie consiste \u00e0 voir les combattants comme la ressource russe la plus facilement \u00e9puisable, mais \u00e9galement comme la plus sensible politiquement pour Vladimir Poutine.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le pr\u00e9sident russe a jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent \u00e9viter d\u2019avoir recours \u00e0 une mobilisation pour mener sa guerre contre l\u2019Ukraine.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019augmentation des pertes russes recherch\u00e9e par Kiev pourrait \u00eatre permise par la sophistication croissante des drones FPV ainsi que par leur l\u00e9talit\u00e9. Ces derniers repr\u00e9sentent aujourd\u2019hui 60&#160;% de la puissance de feu totale sur le front, selon Syrsky.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Depuis l\u2019\u00e9chec de \u00ab&#160;&#160;l\u2019op\u00e9ration&#160;&#160;\u00bb \u00e9clair de 2022 visant \u00e0 capturer Kiev, d\u00e9capiter le pouvoir et mettre en place un gouvernement fantoche \u00e0 la t\u00eate de l\u2019Ukraine, l\u2019invasion russe \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle s\u2019est transform\u00e9e en une guerre d\u2019attrition qui a surtout favoris\u00e9 Moscou.<\/p>\n<p>Cette situation pourrait n\u00e9anmoins changer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":316999,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-317000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","geo-europe"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L&#039;Ukraine peut-elle gagner la guerre d\u2019attrition ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/13\/en-ciblant-les-combattants-russes-lukraine-peut-elle-gagner-la-guerre-dattrition\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L&#039;Ukraine peut-elle gagner la guerre d\u2019attrition ?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Depuis l\u2019\u00e9chec de \u00ab&#160;l\u2019op\u00e9ration&#160;\u00bb \u00e9clair de 2022 visant \u00e0 capturer Kiev, d\u00e9capiter le pouvoir et mettre en place un gouvernement fantoche \u00e0 la t\u00eate de l\u2019Ukraine, l\u2019invasion russe \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle s\u2019est transform\u00e9e en une guerre d\u2019attrition qui a surtout favoris\u00e9 Moscou.  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