{"id":315930,"date":"2026-02-05T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T05:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=315930"},"modified":"2026-02-04T22:15:26","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T21:15:26","slug":"apres-lexpiration-de-new-start-une-nouvelle-course-nucleaire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/05\/apres-lexpiration-de-new-start-une-nouvelle-course-nucleaire\/","title":{"rendered":"Apr\u00e8s l\u2019expiration de New START, une nouvelle course nucl\u00e9aire&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Le trait\u00e9 New START, sign\u00e9 en 2010 par Obama et Medvedev, fixait des plafonds pr\u00e9cis pour le d\u00e9veloppement des armes nucl\u00e9aires&#160;: 1 550 ogives nucl\u00e9aires strat\u00e9giques d\u00e9ploy\u00e9es par pays, 700 vecteurs strat\u00e9giques (missiles balistiques intercontinentaux, missiles sous-marins et bombardiers), et 800 lanceurs (d\u00e9ploy\u00e9s ou non).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Il pr\u00e9voyait \u00e9galement des \u00e9changes de donn\u00e9es, des notifications et des inspections sur site pour v\u00e9rifier le respect de ces limites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le trait\u00e9 avait \u00e9t\u00e9 prolong\u00e9 une seule fois, en 2021. Aucune autre extension formelle n\u2019est possible dans le cadre du texte existant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ainsi, faute d\u2019accord conclu, les contraintes juridiques bilat\u00e9rales sur les armes nucl\u00e9aires am\u00e9ricaines et russes seront lev\u00e9es d\u00e8s demain, vendredi 6 f\u00e9vrier.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les inspections mutuelles pr\u00e9vues par le trait\u00e9 ont quant \u00e0 elles \u00e9t\u00e9 suspendues en 2023, la Russie ayant alors cess\u00e9 sa participation officielle.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Depuis, Washington et Moscou se basent sur des estimations issues du renseignement plut\u00f4t que sur des inspections sur site.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/nBael\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Sans nouvelles contraintes, le risque d&rsquo;une course aux armements nucl\u00e9aires augmente, notamment dans un contexte o\u00f9 la Chine d\u00e9veloppe rapidement son propre arsenal nucl\u00e9aire.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Hier, mercredi 4 f\u00e9vrier, le secr\u00e9taire d\u2019\u00c9tat am\u00e9ricain Marco Rubio a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que tout accord sur le nucl\u00e9aire avec la Russie devait \u00e9galement inclure la Chine.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le Kremlin avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 exprim\u00e9 par le pass\u00e9 sa volont\u00e9 d\u2019inclure \u00e9galement la France et le Royaume-Uni dans le cadre d\u2019un nouveau trait\u00e9 de non-prolif\u00e9ration.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Donald Trump a confirm\u00e9 hier qu\u2019il se rendra en Chine au cours du mois d\u2019avril. Le nucl\u00e9aire ne figure toutefois pas explicitement parmi les sujets list\u00e9s dans une publication sur Truth Social, bien que le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain ait mentionn\u00e9 des discussions portant sur \u00ab&#160;les questions militaires&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-315930' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/05\/apres-lexpiration-de-new-start-une-nouvelle-course-nucleaire\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-315930' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/116013105630663812&quot;&gt;Publication de Donald Trump sur Truth Social&lt;\/a&gt;, 4 f\u00e9vrier 2026.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le m\u00eame jour, Vladimir Poutine a accept\u00e9 une invitation adress\u00e9e par Xi Jinping pour effectuer une visite en Chine au cours du premier semestre. Une deuxi\u00e8me rencontre pourrait avoir lieu le 16 juillet, \u00e0 l\u2019occasion du 25e anniversaire du trait\u00e9 d&rsquo;amiti\u00e9 sino-russe de 2001&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-315930' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/05\/apres-lexpiration-de-new-start-une-nouvelle-course-nucleaire\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-315930' title='&lt;a href=&quot;http:\/\/kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/79101&quot;&gt;\u041a\u043e\u043c\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0439 \u043f\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0449\u043d\u0438\u043a\u0430 \u041f\u0440\u0435\u0437\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430 \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438 \u042e\u0440\u0438\u044f \u0423\u0448\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u043f\u043e \u0438\u0442\u043e\u0433\u0430\u043c \u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043e\u043a\u043e\u043d\u0444\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043d\u0446\u0438\u0438 \u0412\u043b\u0430\u0434\u0438\u043c\u0438\u0440\u0430 \u041f\u0443\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u0441 \u041f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0441\u0435\u0434\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043c \u041a\u041d\u0420 \u0421\u0438 \u0426\u0437\u0438\u043d\u044c\u043f\u0438\u043d\u043e\u043c&lt;\/a&gt;, Kremlin, 4 f\u00e9vrier 2026.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Si le dirigeant russe pourrait potentiellement \u00eatre r\u00e9ceptif \u00e0 l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un nouveau trait\u00e9 incluant la Chine, Xi Jinping a jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent signal\u00e9 ne pas vouloir y prendre part. La Chine, qui dispose de 600 ogives nucl\u00e9aires \u2014 contre environ 4 000 pour les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Russie \u2014 souhaite parvenir \u00e0 la parit\u00e9 avec les deux superpuissances atomiques, et semble peu dispos\u00e9e \u00e0 accepter des limites sur son arsenal&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-315930' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/05\/apres-lexpiration-de-new-start-une-nouvelle-course-nucleaire\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-315930' title='Andreas Kluth, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2026-01-30\/us-and-russia-say-goodbye-arms-control-hello-nuclear-anarchy&quot;&gt;Goodbye Arms Control, Hello Nuclear Anarchy&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Bloomberg&lt;\/em&gt;, 30 janvier 2026.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le d\u00e9partement de la D\u00e9fense am\u00e9ricain consid\u00e8re que P\u00e9kin pourrait poss\u00e9der plus de 1 000 ogives nucl\u00e9aires op\u00e9rationnelles d\u2019ici 2030, dont la plupart seront d\u00e9ploy\u00e9es \u00ab&#160;\u00e0 des niveaux de pr\u00e9paration plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s&#160;\u00bb, et 1 500 en 2035&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-315930' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/05\/apres-lexpiration-de-new-start-une-nouvelle-course-nucleaire\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-315930' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/media.defense.gov\/2024\/Dec\/18\/2003615520\/-1\/-1\/0\/MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2024.PDF&quot;&gt;Military And Security Developments Involving The People&amp;rsquo;s Republic Of China 2024&lt;\/a&gt;, U.S. Department of Defense, 18 d\u00e9cembre 2024.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/USeMT\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si Washington pr\u00e9voit de d\u00e9penser 1 700 milliards de dollars sur 30 ans pour moderniser ses missiles nucl\u00e9aires, ses sous-marins, ses bombardiers et ses ogives, la Russie aurait les capacit\u00e9s de d\u00e9velopper plus rapidement son arsenal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En 2023, la commission du Congr\u00e8s sur la posture strat\u00e9gique am\u00e9ricaine estimait dans son rapport annuel que les cha\u00eenes de production actives de t\u00eates nucl\u00e9aires et de missiles russes conf\u00e9reraient la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 Moscou \u00ab&#160;d&rsquo;\u00e9tendre ses forces nucl\u00e9aires strat\u00e9giques&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-315930' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/05\/apres-lexpiration-de-new-start-une-nouvelle-course-nucleaire\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-315930' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ida.org\/-\/media\/feature\/publications\/a\/am\/americas-strategic-posture\/strategic-posture-commission-report.ashx&quot;&gt;America&amp;rsquo;s Strategic Posture. The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States&lt;\/a&gt;, 2023.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le complexe militaro-industriel am\u00e9ricain peine quant \u00e0 lui \u00e0 construire de nouveaux sous-marins nucl\u00e9aires lanceurs d&rsquo;engins et \u00e0 moderniser son arsenal de missiles balistiques intercontinentaux.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aujourd\u2019hui, jeudi 5 f\u00e9vrier, le trait\u00e9 de non-prolif\u00e9ration nucl\u00e9aire russo-am\u00e9ricain New START arrive \u00e0 expiration. <\/p>\n<p>Pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis la fin de la guerre froide, aucun trait\u00e9 bilat\u00e9ral actif n\u2019encadre les deux superpuissances atomiques.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":315934,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2345],"tags":[],"geo":[2163],"class_list":["post-315930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-securite","geo-monde"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Apr\u00e8s l\u2019expiration de New START, une nouvelle course nucl\u00e9aire ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2026\/02\/05\/apres-lexpiration-de-new-start-une-nouvelle-course-nucleaire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Apr\u00e8s l\u2019expiration de New START, une nouvelle course nucl\u00e9aire ?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Aujourd\u2019hui, jeudi 5 f\u00e9vrier, le trait\u00e9 de non-prolif\u00e9ration nucl\u00e9aire russo-am\u00e9ricain New START arrive \u00e0 expiration.   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