{"id":310377,"date":"2025-12-28T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-28T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=310377"},"modified":"2025-12-27T19:43:38","modified_gmt":"2025-12-27T18:43:38","slug":"lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019IA en 2025&#160;: quatre tendances\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1 \u2014 Evolution des mod\u00e8les. 2025, ann\u00e9e de l\u2019essor des mod\u00e8les de raisonnements soutenant la croissance des capacit\u00e9s agentiques de l\u2019IA<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Fin 2024, le monde commen\u00e7ait tout juste \u00e0 voir \u00e9merger les mod\u00e8les de raisonnement. En 2025, nous sommes pass\u00e9s d&rsquo;un monde o\u00f9 les mod\u00e8les \u00e9taient essentiellement des pr\u00e9dicteurs autor\u00e9gressifs produisant une r\u00e9ponse en une seule \u00e9tape d\u2019inf\u00e9rence \u00e0 des mod\u00e8les capables d&rsquo;utiliser de mani\u00e8re syst\u00e9matique davantage de puissance de calcul \u00e0 l&rsquo;inf\u00e9rence, afin de raffiner it\u00e9rativement la r\u00e9ponse et d&rsquo;explorer diff\u00e9rentes pistes de raisonnement, de mieux utiliser des outils. Concr\u00e8tement,&nbsp; cela a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9mergence d\u2019une nouvelle g\u00e9n\u00e9ration d\u2019applications agentiques telles que la recherche avanc\u00e9e (Deep Research), le d\u00e9veloppement interactif ou autonome de code (Claude Code), copilotes m\u00e9tiers etc.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La part des tokens de raisonnement est ainsi pass\u00e9e de 0&#160;% des tokens totaux utilis\u00e9s fin 2024 \u2014 il n\u2019y avait pas de mod\u00e8les de raisonnement avant le 1er septembre 2024 \u2014 \u00e0 60&#160;% en d\u00e9cembre 2025&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-310377' title='Malika Aubakirova, Alex Attalah, Chris Clark, Justin Summerville et Anjney Midha, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/openrouter.ai\/state-of-ai&quot;&gt;State of AI&amp;#160;: An Empirical 100 Trillion Token Study with OpenRouter&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, d\u00e9cembre 2025.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sur le c\u00e9l\u00e8bre benchmark de raisonnement ARC-AGI-1, GPT-5.2 est 390 fois plus efficace que le mod\u00e8le o3 de d\u00e9cembre dernier&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-310377' title='Simon Willison, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/simonw.substack.com\/p\/gpt-52-and-useful-patterns-for-building&quot;&gt;GPT 5.2 and useful patterns for building HTML tools&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 12 d\u00e9cembre 2025.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Sur GDPEval, un benchmark mesurant la performance des mod\u00e8les sur des t\u00e2ches importantes \u00e9conomiquement (code, administratif, legal etc.), les mod\u00e8les de raisonnement surpassent les mod\u00e8les traditionnels d\u2019environ 20&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-310377' title='Nathan Benaich, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.stateof.ai\/&quot;&gt;State of AI Report 2025&lt;\/a&gt;,&lt;em&gt; Air Street Capital,&lt;\/em&gt; 9 octobre 2025.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ces \u00e9volutions s\u2019accompagnent de l\u2019essor rapide des capacit\u00e9s agentiques des mod\u00e8les&#160;: la dur\u00e9e maximale d\u2019une t\u00e2che de code qu\u2019un mod\u00e8le peut mener \u00e0 bien sans aide humaine, \u00e0 seuil de fiabilit\u00e9 donn\u00e9e (50&#160;%, 80&#160;% etc) double tous les 7 mois&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-310377' title='Thomas Kwa, Ben West, Joel Becker et al., \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/metr.org\/blog\/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks\/&quot;&gt;Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, METR, 19 mars 2025.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Avec l&rsquo;am\u00e9lioration des capacit\u00e9s de raisonnement, de traitement de contextes longs, de suivi des instructions (et donc de l&rsquo;intention de l&rsquo;utilisateur) et d&rsquo;utilisation d&rsquo;outils (moteurs de recherche, navigation web, API de syst\u00e8mes m\u00e9tiers, etc.), l&rsquo;IA de 2025 passe progressivement d&rsquo;une interface de chat classique \u00e0 un agent actif au travail, capable de collaborer proactivement avec l&rsquo;humain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les environnements v\u00e9rifiables, math\u00e9matiques, code mais aussi certains domaines de la physique comme la mati\u00e8re condens\u00e9e constituent un cadre particuli\u00e8rement adapt\u00e9 pour l\u2019apprentissage par renforcement appliqu\u00e9 durant la phase de post-training, en raison de la disponibilit\u00e9 de v\u00e9rificateurs fiables de solutions ou de simulateurs \u00e0 tr\u00e8s haute fid\u00e9lit\u00e9. En math\u00e9matiques, plusieurs mod\u00e8les ont obtenus une performance valant une m\u00e9daille d\u2019or aux Olympiades internationales en 2025 (Deepseek&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-310377' title='Vincent Chow,&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/tech\/tech-trends\/article\/3334553\/deepseek-releases-first-open-ai-model-gold-level-scores-maths-olympiad&quot;&gt; &lt;\/a&gt;\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/tech\/tech-trends\/article\/3334553\/deepseek-releases-first-open-ai-model-gold-level-scores-maths-olympiad&quot;&gt;DeepSeek releases first open AI model with gold-level scores at maths olympiad&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;South China Morning Post&lt;\/em&gt;, 29 novembre 2025.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>, Gemini Deep Think&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-310377' title='Thang Luong et Edward Lockhart, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/deepmind.google\/blog\/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad\/#:~:text=Advanced%20version%20of%20Gemini%20with%20Deep%20Think,and%20has%20been%20held%20annually%20since%201959&quot;&gt;Advanced version of Gemini with Deep Think officially achieves gold-medal standard at the International Mathematical Olympiad&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb,&lt;em&gt; Google DeepMind&lt;\/em&gt;, 21 juillet 2025.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>).\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans le m\u00eame temps, le prix des tokens \u00e0 l\u2019inf\u00e9rence continue de chuter, alimentant\u00a0 une adoption soutenue. \u00c0 capacit\u00e9 de mod\u00e8le \u00e9quivalente, le prix des tokens g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9s chute drastiquement en quelques ann\u00e9es. Le co\u00fbt de GPT-4 est ainsi divis\u00e9 par 1000 en en deux ans&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-7-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-7-310377' title='Mert Demirer, Andrey Fradkin, Nadav Tadelis et Sida Peng, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/andreyfradkin.com\/assets\/LLM_Demand_12_12_2025.pdf&quot;&gt;The Emerging Market for Intelligence&amp;#160;: Pricing, Supply, and Demand for LLMs&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 12 d\u00e9cembre 2025.'><sup>7<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2 \u2014 Adoption et usage. L\u2019essor rapide des mod\u00e8les chinois\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\" class=\"wp-block-list\"><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Les laboratoires d\u2019IA chinois ont \u00e9merg\u00e9 rapidement suivant l\u2019exemple de <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/01\/25\/la-chine-a-developpe-une-ia-aussi-performante-que-chatgpt-pour-7-du-cout\/\">DeepSeek<\/a> en d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/YcUmZ\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fin 2025, le fonds d\u2019investissement a16z estime \u00e0 80&#160;% la probabilit\u00e9 qu&rsquo;une start-up de l&rsquo;IA construise avec des mod\u00e8les d&rsquo;IA open source chinois, comme DeepSeek, Qwen (Alibaba) et Kimi (Moonshot AI). Selon les benchmarks, l\u2019\u00e9cart entre les mod\u00e8les ouverts chinois et les mod\u00e8les ferm\u00e9s am\u00e9ricains varie entre 6 mois et 8 mois&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-8-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-8-310377' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/epoch.ai\/benchmarks\/frontiermath&quot;&gt;FrontierMath&lt;\/a&gt;, Epoch AI'><sup>8<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span> mais parmi les mod\u00e8les open source, les mod\u00e8les chinois dominent en 2025&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-9-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-9-310377' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.atomproject.ai\/&quot;&gt;The ATOM Project&lt;\/a&gt;'><sup>9<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Airbnb admet privil\u00e9gier Qwen \u00e0 ChatGPT.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La part de l\u2019Asie dans la demande mondiale de tokens est aussi pass\u00e9e d\u2019environ 13&#160;% \u00e0 31&#160;% en fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e refl\u00e9tant une adoption accrue des entreprises de la r\u00e9gion&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-10-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-10-310377' title='Malika Aubakirova, Alex Attalah, Chris Clark, Justin Summerville et Anjney Midha, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/openrouter.ai\/state-of-ai&quot;&gt;State of AI&amp;#160;: An Empirical 100 Trillion Token Study with OpenRouter&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, d\u00e9cembre 2025.'><sup>10<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sous l\u2019effet des contr\u00f4les am\u00e9ricains \u00e0 l\u2019exportation, la Chine acc\u00e9l\u00e8re son autonomisation dans les semi-conducteurs, r\u00e9duisant sa d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 Nvidia et misant sur des puces nationales comme les Huawei Ascend 910B et 910C, d\u00e9sormais de plus en plus comp\u00e9titives. Si les \u00c9tats-Unis ont approuv\u00e9 le 8 d\u00e9cembre l\u2019exportation des puces Nvidia d&rsquo;intelligence artificielle H200 vers la Chine, P\u00e9kin a r\u00e9agi en limitant l&rsquo;acc\u00e8s des acheteurs nationaux \u00e0 ces semiconducteurs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>En 2025, environ 1,8 milliard de personnes ont utilis\u00e9 l\u2019IA dans le monde dont 550 \u00e0 600 millions quotidiennement&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-11-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-11-310377' title='Shawn Carolan, Amy Wu Martin, C.C. Gong, Sam Borja, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/menlovc.com\/perspective\/2025-the-state-of-consumer-ai\/#ea137d0d-d6bc-4183-8a18-a5103d388b20&quot;&gt;2025&amp;#160;: The State of Consumer AI&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, Menlo Ventures, 26 juin 2025.'><sup>11<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Mais une autre tendance forte qui se poursuivra au-del\u00e0 de 2025\u00a0 est \u00e0 noter&#160;: l\u2019IA d\u2019entreprise repr\u00e9sente d\u00e9sormais 6&#160;% du march\u00e9 mondial du SaaS. Depuis 2023, elle affiche une croissance plus rapide que n&rsquo;importe quelle autre cat\u00e9gorie de logiciels&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-12-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-12-310377' title='Tim Tully, Joff Redfern, Deedy Das, Derek Xiao, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/menlovc.com\/perspective\/2025-the-state-of-generative-ai-in-the-enterprise\/&quot;&gt;2025&amp;#160;: The State of Generative AI in the Enterprise&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, Menlo Ventures, 9 d\u00e9cembre 2025.'><sup>12<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans le m\u00eame temps, \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re, la comp\u00e9tition est plus dense qu\u2019en 2024, aucun mod\u00e8le ne reste leader incontest\u00e9 dans un domaine (code, legal, finance etc). Parmi les 10 mod\u00e8les les plus \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re, aucun n\u2019existait en f\u00e9vrier 2025.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>OpenAI est pass\u00e9 de 50&#160;% du march\u00e9 de l\u2019IA d\u2019entreprise en 2023 \u00e0 27&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-13-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-13-310377' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/menlovc.com\/perspective\/2025-the-state-of-generative-ai-in-the-enterprise\/&quot;&gt;Ibid&lt;\/a&gt;.'><sup>13<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span> fin 2025. Les mod\u00e8les open source repr\u00e9sentent 30&#160;% du march\u00e9.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3 \u2014 Investissements. 2025 confirme la supr\u00e9matie am\u00e9ricaine sur la puissance de calcul de l\u2019IA<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"3\" class=\"wp-block-list\"><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Les \u00c9tats-Unis concentrent 75&#160;% de la capacit\u00e9 de calcul mondiale&#160;: la puissance de calcul totale aux \u00c9tats-Unis est ainsi pr\u00e8s de neuf fois sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle de la Chine et dix-sept fois sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la capacit\u00e9 totale de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-14-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-14-310377' title='Konstantin F. Pilz, James Sanders, Robi Rahman et Lennart Heim, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/arxiv.org\/html\/2504.16026v1&quot;&gt;Trends in AI Supercomputers&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 22 avril 2025.'><sup>14<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/8KKsP\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>82&#160;% du capital risque de l\u2019IA en 2025 a \u00e9t\u00e9 lev\u00e9 par des entreprises am\u00e9ricaines (109 milliards de dollars) contre 9&#160;% pour l\u2019Europe et le Royaume-Uni (12 milliards), et\u00a0 4&#160;% (5 milliards) pour la Chine&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-15-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-15-310377' title='Nathan Benaich, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.stateof.ai\/&quot;&gt;State of AI Report 2025&lt;\/a&gt;,&lt;em&gt; Air Street Capital,&lt;\/em&gt; 9 octobre 2025.'><sup>15<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans le m\u00eame temps, les besoins \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques des principaux supercalculateurs d\u00e9di\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA ont doubl\u00e9 chaque ann\u00e9e (\u00d72,0) entre 2019 et 2025. En 2025, le supercalculateur Colossus de xAI n\u00e9cessitait une puissance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique d&rsquo;environ 300 MW. \u00c0 titre de comparaison, cela \u00e9quivaut \u00e0 la consommation d\u2019environ 250 000 foyers am\u00e9ricains.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine est en m\u00eame temps devenue d\u00e9pendante des investissements dans l\u2019IA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ainsi, au premier semestre 2025, 92&#160;% de la croissance du PIB provient des d\u00e9penses d\u2019investissement li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cela d\u00e9passe la consommation des m\u00e9nages am\u00e9ricains comme facteur de croissance \u00e9conomique.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les investissements globaux en datacenter et logiciel repr\u00e9sentent d\u00e9sormais environ 4&#160;% du PIB am\u00e9ricain&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-16-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-16-310377' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/x.com\/jasonfurman\/status\/1971995367202775284&quot;&gt;Jason Furman sur X&lt;\/a&gt;, 27 septembre 2025.'><sup>16<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4 \u2014 Y a-t-il une bulle de l\u2019IA&#160;?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"4\" class=\"wp-block-list\"><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Les d\u00e9bats autour de la bulle de l\u2019IA se sont accentu\u00e9s autour du mois d&rsquo;ao\u00fbt et la publication d\u2019un rapport par le projet NANDA du MIT qui sugg\u00e9rait \u00e0 la fois des freins importants d\u2019int\u00e9gration de l\u2019IA dans les processus des entreprises et l\u2019essor du \u00ab&#160;shadow AI&#160;\u00bb, \u00e9conomie parall\u00e8le de l\u2019IA, dans laquelle les employ\u00e9s utilisent des outils d\u2019IA m\u00eame lorsque les initiatives officielles des entreprises stagnent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Une \u00e9tude de l\u2019index \u00e9conomique d\u2019Anthropic montrait d\u00e9but 2025 que seules environ 4&#160;% des professions faisaient usage de l\u2019IA pour au moins 75&#160;% de leurs t\u00e2ches&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-17-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-17-310377' title='Kunal Handa, Alex Tamkin et al., \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2503.04761&quot;&gt;Which Economic Tasks are Performed with AI&amp;#160;? Evidence from Millions of Claude Conversations&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 11 f\u00e9vrier 2025.'><sup>17<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. En 2025, l\u2019int\u00e9gration de l\u2019IA reste principalement verticalis\u00e9e par t\u00e2che, plut\u00f4t qu\u2019une transformation globale du poste de travail.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Une \u00e9tude de Stanford de septembre bas\u00e9e sur des donn\u00e9es d\u2019ADP du leader am\u00e9ricain de service de paies montre que les travailleurs en d\u00e9but de carri\u00e8re (\u00e2g\u00e9s de 22 \u00e0 25 ans) occupant des emplois expos\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA ont connu une baisse relative de l\u2019emploi de 16&#160;%, tandis que l\u2019emploi des travailleurs plus exp\u00e9riment\u00e9s est rest\u00e9 stable&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-18-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-18-310377' title='Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar et Ruyu Chen, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/digitaleconomy.stanford.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/CanariesintheCoalMine_Nov25.pdf&quot;&gt;Canaries in the Coal Mine&amp;#160;? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 13 novembre 2025.'><sup>18<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Une \u00e9tude d\u2019Harvard conclut \u00e9galement que l\u2019emploi des juniors recule dans les entreprises adoptant l\u2019IA par rapport aux non-adoptantes, tandis que l\u2019emploi des seniors reste largement inchang\u00e9 en 2025. La baisse des juniors est concentr\u00e9e dans les m\u00e9tiers les plus expos\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA g\u00e9n\u00e9rative et s\u2019explique par un ralentissement des embauches&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-19-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-19-310377' title='Seyed Mahdi Hosseini Maasoum et Guy Lichtinger, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5425555&quot;&gt;Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change&amp;#160;: Evidence from U.S. R\u00e9sum\u00e9 and Job Posting Data&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, 31 ao\u00fbt 2025.'><sup>19<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le chiffre d\u2019affaires annualis\u00e9 d\u2019OpenAI a atteint 13 milliards de dollars en ao\u00fbt 2025, contre 5 milliards en d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e, celui d\u2019Anthropic est pass\u00e9 en 2025 de 1 milliard \u00e0 5 milliards en sept mois refl\u00e9tant la commercialisation rapide et la diffusion acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e de l\u2019IA&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-20-310377' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/#easy-footnote-bottom-20-310377' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/epoch.ai\/blog\/introducing-the-ai-companies-data-hub&quot;&gt;Introducing the AI Companies Data Hub&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, Epoch AI, 30 septembre 2025.'><sup>20<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Une bulle pourrait-elle \u00e9clater en 2026&#160;? L\u2019un des risques pourrait venir d\u2019une hausse du co\u00fbt de l\u2019emprunt pourrait provoquer une correction des march\u00e9s et exposer l\u2019IA au risque d\u2019une bulle financi\u00e8re, \u00e0 l\u2019image de la bulle Internet qui a \u00e9clat\u00e9 apr\u00e8s des hausses de taux de la Fed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le rebond de l\u2019inflation et la nomination du prochain pr\u00e9sident de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale apparaissent ainsi comme des \u00e9l\u00e9ments clefs pour ce qui se passera avec l\u2019IA l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En 2025, les mod\u00e8les de langage ont \u00e9t\u00e9 au premier plan, et des tendances plus profondes se sont mises en place. <\/p>\n<p>L\u2019ing\u00e9nieur en IA Victor Storchan analyse les dynamiques clefs de 2025 afin de se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 venir. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":310379,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3412],"tags":[],"staff":[2457],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[2163],"class_list":["post-310377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-puissances-de-lia","staff-victor-storchan","geo-monde"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u2019IA en 2025 : quatre tendances<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/28\/lia-en-2025-quatre-tendances\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u2019IA en 2025 : quatre tendances\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"En 2025, les mod\u00e8les de langage ont \u00e9t\u00e9 au premier plan, et des tendances plus profondes se sont mises en place.   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