{"id":305410,"date":"2025-11-18T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=305410"},"modified":"2025-11-18T17:37:50","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T16:37:50","slug":"bamako-quelles-consequences-geopolitiques-dune-chute-de-la-junte-malienne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/11\/18\/bamako-quelles-consequences-geopolitiques-dune-chute-de-la-junte-malienne\/","title":{"rendered":"Bamako&#160;: quelles cons\u00e9quences g\u00e9opolitiques d\u2019une chute de la junte malienne&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Deux mois apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but du blocus impos\u00e9 sur le sud du Mali par le JNIM (ou GSIM pour Groupe de soutien \u00e0 l\u2019Islam et aux musulmans), une coalition djihadiste sah\u00e9lienne fond\u00e9e en 2017, la question ne semble plus \u00eatre \u00ab&#160;si&#160;\u00bb la capitale malienne Bamako va tomber mais plut\u00f4t \u00ab&#160;quand&#160;\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon une source consult\u00e9e par la revue, la probabilit\u00e9 que le Niger et le Burkina Faso \u2014 qui ont fond\u00e9, avec le Mali, l\u2019Alliance des \u00c9tats du Sahel en 2023 \u2014 viennent apporter une aide \u00e0 la junte malienne est quasi-nulle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Russie, qui peine \u00e0 r\u00e9aliser des progr\u00e8s significatifs en Ukraine, dispose quant \u00e0 elle vraisemblablement de marges de man\u0153uvre trop limit\u00e9es pour apporter une assistance s\u00e9curitaire \u00e0 son alli\u00e9 malien.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/w3VRl\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Le vice-pr\u00e9sident de la Commission de D\u00e9fense, s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et protection civile de la junte, Fousseynou Ouattara, s\u2019est voulu rassurant en d\u00e9clarant aujourd\u2019hui, mardi 18 novembre, \u00e0 Africa Radio qu\u2019il \u00e9tait \u00ab&#160;impossible que Bamako tombe entre les mains des djihadistes [&#8230;] Il n\u2019y a aucun risque, c\u2019est un sc\u00e9nario improbable&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-305410' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/11\/18\/bamako-quelles-consequences-geopolitiques-dune-chute-de-la-junte-malienne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-305410' title='Nadir Djennad, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.africaradio.com\/actualite-112069-mali-bamako-ne-tombera-jamais-entre-les-mains-du-jnim-assure-fousseynou-ouattara-vice-president-de-la-commission-defense-du-cnt-malien&quot;&gt;Mali&amp;#160;: \u201cBamako ne tombera jamais entre les mains du JNIM\u201d assure Fousseynou Ouattara, vice-pr\u00e9sident de la Commission D\u00e9fense du CNT malien&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Africa Radio&lt;\/em&gt;, 18 novembre 2025.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Tout en affirmant contr\u00f4ler \u00ab&#160;chaque centim\u00e8tre du territoire malien&#160;\u00bb, la junte nie l\u2019existence d\u2019un blocus et minimise l\u2019afflux de r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s maliens ayant pouss\u00e9 la C\u00f4te d\u2019ivoire \u00e0 renforcer sa fronti\u00e8re nord.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La chute de la junte malienne affaiblirai le Niger et le Burkina Faso voisins et causerait <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/11\/07\/en-imposant-un-blocus-sur-bamako-le-jnim-tente-de-decredibiliser-la-junte-et-la-presence-militaire-russe\/\">un revers consid\u00e9rable \u00e0 la strat\u00e9gie d\u2019influence de Moscou<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019instauration d\u2019un califat islamique au Mali risquerait \u00e9galement de d\u00e9stabiliser des pays de la r\u00e9gion comme la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, le Ghana ou le B\u00e9nin, qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient contrairement \u00e0 Bamako d\u2019un acc\u00e8s \u00e0 la mer&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-305410' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/11\/18\/bamako-quelles-consequences-geopolitiques-dune-chute-de-la-junte-malienne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-305410' title='David Pilling et Aanu Adeoye, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/36fa9f1b-74f5-445f-bdf6-25cad52d911b&quot;&gt;Jihadis encircle Mali\u2019s capital as they close in on power&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Financial Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 1er novembre 2025.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Une telle situation pr\u00e9senterait \u00e9galement un risque s\u00e9curitaire pour l\u2019Europe. Comme l\u2019a soulign\u00e9 le 10 novembre le directeur des renseignements ext\u00e9rieurs fran\u00e7ais, Nicolas Lerner&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Laisser s\u2019installer des groupes terroristes a toujours donn\u00e9 des projets d\u2019attentats projet\u00e9s&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-305410' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/11\/18\/bamako-quelles-consequences-geopolitiques-dune-chute-de-la-junte-malienne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-305410' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.radiofrance.fr\/franceinter\/podcasts\/l-invite-de-8h20-le-grand-entretien\/l-invite-de-8h20-le-grand-entretien-du-lundi-10-novembre-2025-4585004&quot;&gt;La probabilit\u00e9 d&amp;rsquo;un deuxi\u00e8me 13-Novembre \u00ab&amp;#160;a consid\u00e9rablement diminu\u00e9&amp;#160;\u00bb, selon Nicolas Lerner (DGSE)&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, France Inter, 10 novembre 2025.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Une prise de Bamako par la junte serait d\u2019autant plus per\u00e7ue comme un \u00e9chec pour Paris que le lancement en 2013 de l\u2019op\u00e9ration Serval visait \u00e0 mettre fin \u00e0 la progression d\u2019une coalition de djihadistes vers Bamako. Les derniers militaires fran\u00e7ais d\u00e9ploy\u00e9s au Mali dans le cadre de l\u2019op\u00e9ration Barkhane, lanc\u00e9e en 2014, ont quitt\u00e9 le pays \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tandis que la population du sud du Mali souffre de plus en plus du blocus impos\u00e9 par les djihadistes du JNIM sur la capitale du pays, Bamako, la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une intervention ext\u00e9rieure pour venir en aide \u00e0 la junte semble tr\u00e8s faible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":305416,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2345],"tags":[],"geo":[522],"class_list":["post-305410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-securite","geo-afriques-subsahariennes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This 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