{"id":300764,"date":"2025-10-08T18:46:05","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T16:46:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=300764"},"modified":"2025-10-08T18:46:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T16:46:07","slug":"impacte-par-les-tarifs-de-trump-le-commerce-mondial-devrait-considerablement-ralentir-en-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/10\/08\/impacte-par-les-tarifs-de-trump-le-commerce-mondial-devrait-considerablement-ralentir-en-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Impact\u00e9 par les tarifs de Trump, le commerce mondial devrait consid\u00e9rablement ralentir en 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Selon le dernier rapport de l\u2019Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) publi\u00e9 hier, mardi 7 octobre, le volume du commerce mondial de marchandises a augment\u00e9 de 4,9&#160;% en glissement annuel au premier semestre, soit un rythme plus rapide qu\u2019anticip\u00e9. L\u2019OMC estime toutefois que celui-ci devrait consid\u00e9rablement reculer l\u2019an prochain, avec une croissance estim\u00e9e \u00e0 0,5&#160;% \u2014 contre 1,8&#160;% dans ses derni\u00e8res pr\u00e9visions d\u2019ao\u00fbt&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-300764' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/10\/08\/impacte-par-les-tarifs-de-trump-le-commerce-mondial-devrait-considerablement-ralentir-en-2026\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-300764' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news25_e\/stat_07oct25_e.pdf&quot;&gt;Global Trade Outlook and Statistics&lt;\/a&gt;, Organisation mondiale du commerce, 7 octobre 2025.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le ralentissement du commerce mondial sera principalement d\u00fb aux tarifs douaniers impos\u00e9s par l\u2019administration Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019anticipation d\u2019une hausse des droits de douane am\u00e9ricains avait conduit l\u2019Organisation <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/04\/16\/les-tarifs-de-trump-devraient-provoquer-un-recul-du-commerce-international-de-02-en-2025\/\">\u00e0 tabler en avril sur une baisse du volume de marchandises de 0,2&#160;%<\/a> d\u00e8s cette ann\u00e9e.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans son rapport, l\u2019OMC note que l\u2019anticipation des tarifs \u2014 coupl\u00e9e \u00e0 des conditions macro\u00e9conomiques favorables (baisse de l\u2019inflation, croissance dans les pays \u00e9mergents\u2026) \u2014 a conduit \u00e0 une forte hausse des \u00e9changes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les effets n\u00e9gatifs <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/trump-et-la-guerre-commerciale-x\/\">des tarifs d\u00e9sormais en vigueur<\/a> conjugu\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019incertitude entourant la politique commerciale am\u00e9ricaine devraient toutefois se faire sentir \u00e0 partir de 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/cAogd\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Avec une baisse de ses exportations estim\u00e9e \u00e0 1&#160;% l\u2019an prochain, l\u2019Am\u00e9rique du Nord figure parmi les r\u00e9gions les plus touch\u00e9es par la politique tarifaire de l\u2019administration Trump, aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de l\u2019Am\u00e9rique du Sud (-1,9&#160;%) et du Moyen-Orient (-0,9&#160;%). Parmi les principales r\u00e9gions, seule l\u2019Europe devrait voir une hausse de ses exportations, estim\u00e9e \u00e0 2&#160;% l\u2019an prochain, en baisse toutefois de 0,5 point par rapport aux pr\u00e9visions d\u2019avril.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ne1n9\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 l\u2019impact n\u00e9gatif des tarifs douaniers am\u00e9ricains sur le syst\u00e8me commercial international, l\u2019OMC note que celui-ci se montre r\u00e9silient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fin septembre, la directrice-g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de l\u2019Organisation, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, avait d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que 72&#160;% du commerce mondial de marchandises s\u2019effectuait toujours sur la base du principe de la nation la plus favoris\u00e9e (NPF)&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-300764' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/10\/08\/impacte-par-les-tarifs-de-trump-le-commerce-mondial-devrait-considerablement-ralentir-en-2026\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-300764' title='Preeti Jha, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.semafor.com\/article\/09\/24\/2025\/wto-chief-lauds-chinas-decision-to-forgo-developing-country-benefits&quot;&gt;WTO chief lauds China\u2019s decision to forgo developing country benefits as \u2018momentous occasion\u2019&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Semafor&lt;\/em&gt;, 24 septembre 2025.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ce chiffre est en baisse de 8 points par rapport au mois de janvier, avant le retour au pouvoir de Donald Trump, lorsqu\u2019une analyse de l\u2019OMC pla\u00e7ait ce chiffre \u00e0 80&#160;%&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-300764' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/10\/08\/impacte-par-les-tarifs-de-trump-le-commerce-mondial-devrait-considerablement-ralentir-en-2026\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-300764' title='Tomasz Gonciarz et Thomas Verbeet, &lt;a href=&quot;http:\/\/wto.org\/english\/res_e\/reser_e\/ersd202502_e.pdf&quot;&gt;Significance Of Most-favoured-nation Terms In Global Trade&amp;#160;: A Comprehensive Analysis&lt;\/a&gt;, Organisation mondiale du commerce, 15 janvier 2025.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La remise en question du principe de la nation la plus favoris\u00e9e, qui ouvre la voie \u00e0 des diff\u00e9rences de droits de douane entre partenaires commerciaux, se trouve au c\u0153ur de <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/03\/04\/comment-trump-veut-changer-la-mondialisation-par-les-tarifs-10-points-a-jour-des-dernieres-annonces\/\">la rh\u00e9torique protectionniste<\/a> de l\u2019administration Trump.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019Organisation mondiale du commerce anticipe une croissance du commerce mondial de marchandises de 0,5&#160;&#160;% l\u2019an prochain en glissement annuel, contre 2,4&#160;&#160;% cette ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>Avec une baisse de ses exportations estim\u00e9e \u00e0 1&#160;&#160;% en 2026, l\u2019Am\u00e9rique du Nord figure parmi les r\u00e9gions les plus touch\u00e9es par la politique tarifaire de l\u2019administration Trump.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":300766,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"geo":[2163],"class_list":["post-300764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","geo-monde"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les tarifs de Trump vont ralentir le commerce mondial en 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/10\/08\/impacte-par-les-tarifs-de-trump-le-commerce-mondial-devrait-considerablement-ralentir-en-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Les tarifs de Trump vont ralentir le commerce mondial en 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L\u2019Organisation mondiale du commerce anticipe une croissance du commerce mondial de marchandises de 0,5&#160;% l\u2019an prochain en glissement annuel, contre 2,4&#160;% cette ann\u00e9e.  Avec une baisse de ses exportations estim\u00e9e \u00e0 1&#160;% en 2026, l\u2019Am\u00e9rique du Nord figure parmi les r\u00e9gions les plus touch\u00e9es par la politique tarifaire de l\u2019administration Trump.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/10\/08\/impacte-par-les-tarifs-de-trump-le-commerce-mondial-devrait-considerablement-ralentir-en-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-08T16:46:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-08T16:46:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/gc-share-wto-trade-oct-25.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1886\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1054\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" 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