{"id":293520,"date":"2025-08-18T13:16:06","date_gmt":"2025-08-18T11:16:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=293520"},"modified":"2025-08-18T13:16:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T11:16:08","slug":"economie-russe-quel-impact-dune-potentielle-levee-des-sanctions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/08\/18\/economie-russe-quel-impact-dune-potentielle-levee-des-sanctions\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9conomie russe&#160;: quel impact d\u2019une potentielle lev\u00e9e des sanctions&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tandis que Volodymyr Zelensky, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/08\/17\/macron-meloni-merz-qui-sont-les-dirigeants-europeens-qui-accompagneront-zelensky-a-la-maison-blanche-demain\/\">accompagn\u00e9 de six dirigeants europ\u00e9ens<\/a> ainsi que du secr\u00e9taire g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de l\u2019OTAN, s\u2019appr\u00eate \u00e0 s\u2019entretenir aujourd\u2019hui, lundi 18 ao\u00fbt, avec Donald Trump \u00e0 Washington suite \u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/08\/16\/sommet-en-alaska-pas-de-deal-pour-trump-un-succes-pour-poutine-la-guerre-continue\/\">la rencontre du pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain avec Poutine<\/a> en Alaska vendredi 15, la question des sanctions \u2014 et de leur \u00e9ventuelle lev\u00e9e, partielle ou totale \u2014 devrait faire partie des discussions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Depuis 2022, la Russie est devenue le pays le plus sanctionn\u00e9 au monde, d\u00e9passant l\u2019Iran et la Cor\u00e9e du Nord.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selon Castellum.AI, au 15 ao\u00fbt, plus de 25 000 mesures restrictives visaient des individus ainsi que des entit\u00e9s russes (majoritairement des entreprises).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ces sanctions sont impos\u00e9es par les \u00c9tats-Unis, l\u2019Australie, la Suisse, et par les pays membres du G7 et de l\u2019Union. La France a \u00e9galement impos\u00e9 unilat\u00e9ralement plus de 2 500 mesures.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Ma75E\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si la Russie continue d\u2019investir massivement dans son arm\u00e9e et ses capacit\u00e9s militaires, son \u00e9conomie a \u00e9t\u00e9 largement fragilis\u00e9e par l\u2019exclusion de ses banques de SWIFT, le plafonnement \u00e0 60 dollars du baril de p\u00e9trole ou bien la suspension de la quasi-totalit\u00e9 des importations de produits \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques par les pays europ\u00e9ens.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Selon plusieurs sources au fait des discussions, Poutine aurait cherch\u00e9 \u00e0 obtenir un all\u00e8gement des sanctions dans le cadre de tout accord conclu avec Trump \u00e0 Anchorage&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-293520' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/08\/18\/economie-russe-quel-impact-dune-potentielle-levee-des-sanctions\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-293520' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/features\/2025-08-13\/russia-s-faltering-war-economy-adds-to-putin-s-woes-ahead-of-trump-summit&quot;&gt;Exposing the Cracks at the Heart of Putin\u2019s War Economy&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Bloomberg&lt;\/em&gt;, 13 ao\u00fbt 2025.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cette condition fait partie de la liste de souhaits officielle exprim\u00e9e par le r\u00e9gime russe depuis plusieurs mois.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En mars, le Kremlin avait exig\u00e9 dans un communiqu\u00e9, publi\u00e9 apr\u00e8s <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/03\/25\/lukraine-acte-la-mise-en-oeuvre-dune-suspension-des-hostilites-en-mer-noire-la-russie-laccepte-a-certaines-conditions\/\">la conclusion d\u2019un suppos\u00e9 cessez-le-feu partiel<\/a>, la lev\u00e9e des sanctions impos\u00e9es sur Rosselkhozbank ainsi que la reconnection des banques russes \u00e0 SWIFT.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selon une analyse de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 russe de services financiers Finam (\u0424\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043c), la lev\u00e9e des sanctions sectorielles, notamment dans le secteur financier, \u00ab&#160;serait la mesure la plus significative pour l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-293520' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/08\/18\/economie-russe-quel-impact-dune-potentielle-levee-des-sanctions\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-293520' title='\u041a\u0441\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u041a\u043e\u0442\u0447\u0435\u043d\u043a\u043e, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.vedomosti.ru\/economics\/articles\/2025\/03\/05\/1096015-ekonomisti-otsenili-perspektivi-ekonomiki-rossii&quot;&gt;\u042d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u0441\u0442\u044b \u043e\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0441\u043f\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u044b \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438 \u0432 \u0441\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0430\u0435 \u0441\u043c\u044f\u0433\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0441\u0430\u043d\u043a\u0446\u0438\u0439&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;\u0412\u0435\u0434\u043e\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438&lt;\/em&gt;, 5 mars 2025.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00c0 Anchorage, la d\u00e9l\u00e9gation russe a d\u00fb payer en esp\u00e8ces pour le ravitaillement de ses avions en raison de son exclusion des syst\u00e8mes bancaires occidentaux&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-293520' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/08\/18\/economie-russe-quel-impact-dune-potentielle-levee-des-sanctions\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-293520' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.state.gov\/releases\/office-of-the-spokesperson\/2025\/08\/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-with-kristen-welker-of-nbc-meet-the-press\/&quot;&gt;Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Kristen Welker of NBC Meet the Press&lt;\/a&gt;, D\u00e9partement d\u2019\u00c9tat am\u00e9ricain, 17 ao\u00fbt 2025.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/NonFO\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si l\u2019impact quantitatif d\u2019une lev\u00e9e \u2014 m\u00eame partielle \u2014 des sanctions est difficile \u00e0 estimer sans conna\u00eetre pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment les mesures concern\u00e9es, l\u2019Acad\u00e9mie russe de l\u2019\u00e9conomie nationale et du service public aupr\u00e8s du pr\u00e9sident (\u0420\u0410\u041d\u0425\u0438\u0413\u0421), une institution publique d\u2019enseignement sup\u00e9rieur, estime que celui-ci pourrait se traduire par une hausse de la croissance du PIB russe de 0,5 \u00e0 1 point de pourcentage&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-293520' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/08\/18\/economie-russe-quel-impact-dune-potentielle-levee-des-sanctions\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-293520' title='\u041a\u0441\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u041a\u043e\u0442\u0447\u0435\u043d\u043a\u043e, &lt;em&gt;op. cit.&lt;\/em&gt;'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pour Moscou, la priorit\u00e9 est de retrouver un acc\u00e8s aux flux financiers internationaux, notamment via la reconnexion \u00e0 SWIFT, afin de faciliter les mouvements de devises de r\u00e9serve et de r\u00e9duire les co\u00fbts de transaction.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Poutine chercherait \u00e9galement \u00e0 obtenir une lev\u00e9e des restrictions pesant sur les exportations de p\u00e9trole en exigeant que <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/11\/economie-russe-la-flotte-fantome-de-moscou-est-plus-exposee-que-jamais-aux-sanctions\/\">la flotte fant\u00f4me russe<\/a> ne soit plus vis\u00e9e par des sanctions et en s\u2019assurant que des mesures secondaires ne seront pas impos\u00e9es sur les importateurs d\u2019\u00e9nergie russe \u2014 Inde, Chine et Turquie notamment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>D\u2019autres objectifs comme <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/03\/03\/en-entamant-des-discussions-sur-la-reouverture-de-nord-stream-2-avec-washington-le-kremlin-appate-trump-avec-une-approche-pro-business\/\">la r\u00e9ouverture de Nord Stream 1 et 2<\/a>, la lev\u00e9e des restrictions pesant sur ses exportations d\u2019engrais et de produits agricoles et des contr\u00f4les \u00e0 l\u2019exportation pour les technologies de pointe (comme les semi-conducteurs) auraient \u00e9galement un effet b\u00e9n\u00e9fique pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-293520' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/08\/18\/economie-russe-quel-impact-dune-potentielle-levee-des-sanctions\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-293520' title='Sam Greene, Alexander Kolyandr, Benjamin Schmitt et David Kagan, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/cepa.org\/comprehensive-reports\/sanctions-crunch-time-russias-wish-list-vs-transatlantic-resolve\/&quot;&gt;Sanctions Crunch Time&amp;#160;: Russia\u2019s Wish List vs. Transatlantic Resolve&lt;\/a&gt;, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), 14 juillet 2025.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lors d<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/07\/15\/leconomie-russe-pourrait-seffondrer-tres-rapidement-une-conversation-avec-david-osullivan-envoye-special-de-lunion-europeenne-pour-les-sanctions\/\">\u2019un entretien publi\u00e9 dans nos pages le mois dernier<\/a>, l\u2019envoy\u00e9 sp\u00e9cial de l\u2019Union pour les sanctions, David O\u2019Sullivan, estimait que sans les mesures europ\u00e9ennes, \u00ab&#160;la Russie aurait dispos\u00e9 de 450 milliards d\u2019euros suppl\u00e9mentaires pour financer sa guerre&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon plusieurs sources, Vladimir Poutine aurait demand\u00e9 un all\u00e8gement des sanctions comme condition \u00e0 la conclusion de tout accord visant \u00e0 mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre en Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>La lev\u00e9e partielle des mesures visant Moscou pourrait accro\u00eetre la croissance annuelle du PIB russe de 0,5 \u00e0 1 point de pourcentage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":293526,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"geo":[550],"class_list":["post-293520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","geo-russie"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u00c9conomie russe : quel impact d\u2019une lev\u00e9e des sanctions ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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