{"id":287623,"date":"2025-07-15T09:41:39","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T07:41:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=287623"},"modified":"2025-07-15T09:44:56","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T07:44:56","slug":"budget-2026-lexception-francaise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/07\/15\/budget-2026-lexception-francaise\/","title":{"rendered":"Budget 2026&#160;: l\u2019exception fran\u00e7aise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>La situation tr\u00e8s d\u00e9grad\u00e9e des finances publiques fran\u00e7aises constitue une exception en Europe. C\u2019est ce que montre l\u2019Observatoire fran\u00e7ais des conjonctures economiques (OFCE) dans une \u00e9tude comparative fouill\u00e9e publi\u00e9e \u00e0 la veille des annonces budg\u00e9taires pour 2026 par Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-287623' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/07\/15\/budget-2026-lexception-francaise\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-287623' title='Eric Heyer, Mathieu Plane, Xavier Ragot, Raul Sampognaro, Xavier Timbeau, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/ofce.github.io\/psmt\/&quot;&gt;Quelles trajectoires pour les finances publiques de la France&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;, OFCE, 11 juillet 2025.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019\u00e9cart entre le d\u00e9ficit public fran\u00e7ais et celui des autres pays de la zone euro s\u2019est creus\u00e9 principalement au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000, avant la crise financi\u00e8re de 2008, puis \u00e0 nouveau depuis 2019.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Avec comme r\u00e9sultat une hausse record de la dette publique fran\u00e7aise de 53 points de PIB sur la p\u00e9riode 2000-2024, contre 44 points en Espagne, 27 en Italie et 5 en Allemagne.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La France est d\u00e9sormais le troisi\u00e8me pays le plus endett\u00e9 de l\u2019Union, derri\u00e8re la Gr\u00e8ce et l\u2019Italie.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/sjDjn\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Depuis 2017, ce creusement des d\u00e9ficits publics ne r\u00e9sulte pas principalement d&rsquo;une hausse des d\u00e9penses, malgr\u00e9 le \u00ab&#160;quoi qu&rsquo;il en co\u00fbte&#160;\u00bb de la pand\u00e9mie de Covid-19, mais d&rsquo;une baisse importante des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements obligatoires de 2,5 points de PIB, \u00e0 la fois sur les m\u00e9nages, notamment via la suppression de la taxe d&rsquo;habitation, et sur les entreprises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/lARzV\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/dOxQr\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/tME6W\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/x8cXx\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Contrairement \u00e0 ce que ses promoteurs anticipaient, cette politique n\u2019a pas suffisamment dop\u00e9 l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique pour emp\u00eacher que le d\u00e9ficit public ne se creuse et que l&rsquo;endettement public ne s\u2019envole.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette d\u00e9gradation particuli\u00e8rement prononc\u00e9e de la situation des finances publiques fran\u00e7aises entra\u00eene un besoin d\u2019ajustement que l\u2019OFCE estime \u00e0 100 milliards d\u2019euros, soit 3,4 points de PIB, pour stabiliser le niveau de la dette fran\u00e7aise en&#160;% du PIB.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Compte tenu des causes du d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre accumul\u00e9 ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, l\u2019OFCE ne consid\u00e8re pas cependant que cet ajustement devrait \u00eatre principalement men\u00e9 du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des d\u00e9penses publiques, contrairement \u00e0 ce que pr\u00e9conise Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En effet, le Premier ministre a r\u00e9affirm\u00e9 son engagement \u00e0 ramener le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire \u00e0 5,4&#160;% du PIB cette ann\u00e9e, puis \u00e0 4,6&#160;% en 2026. Il devrait ainsi pr\u00e9senter aujourd&rsquo;hui les d\u00e9tails d&rsquo;un plan d&rsquo;\u00e9conomies de 40 milliards d&rsquo;euros.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/dm9vt\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La semaine derni\u00e8re, le taux de la dette fran\u00e7aise \u00e0 5 ans a presque atteint le niveau le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de la zone euro la semaine derni\u00e8re.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans le m\u00eame temps, les perspectives de croissance de la France se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorent, et la production devrait d\u00e9sormais progresser moins que la moyenne de la zone euro&#160;: en mai, la production a de nouveau baiss\u00e9 dans l&rsquo;industrie manufacturi\u00e8re (-1&#160;% apr\u00e8s -0,7&#160;% en avril 2025) et plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9ment dans l&rsquo;ensemble de l&rsquo;industrie (-0,5&#160;% apr\u00e8s -1,4&#160;%).&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Commission europ\u00e9enne pr\u00e9voit une croissance de 0,6&#160;% pour 2025 (contre 0,9&#160;% pour la zone euro et 1,1&#160;% pour l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aujourd\u2019hui, mardi 15 juillet, le gouvernement Bayrou pr\u00e9sentera son budget pour 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Si le d\u00e9ficit public devait d\u00e9passer le seuil de 3&#160;% du PIB dans 11 \u00c9tats membres cette ann\u00e9e, selon l&rsquo;Observatoire fran\u00e7ais des conjonctures \u00e9conomiques, la situation des finances publiques fran\u00e7aises est plut\u00f4t exceptionnelle en Europe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":287627,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3468],"tags":[],"staff":[4180],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-287623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-donnees-qui-changent-la-donne","staff-guillaume-duval","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":287627,"excerpt":"Aujourd\u2019hui, mardi 15 juillet, le gouvernement Bayrou pr\u00e9sentera son budget pour 2026.\r\n\r\nSi le d\u00e9ficit public devait d\u00e9passer le seuil de 3 % du PIB dans 11 \u00c9tats membres cette ann\u00e9e, selon l'Observatoire fran\u00e7ais des conjonctures \u00e9conomiques, la situation des finances publiques fran\u00e7aises est plut\u00f4t exceptionnelle en Europe.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Budget 2026 : l\u2019exception fran\u00e7aise<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/07\/15\/budget-2026-lexception-francaise\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Budget 2026 : l\u2019exception fran\u00e7aise\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Aujourd\u2019hui, mardi 15 juillet, le gouvernement Bayrou pr\u00e9sentera son budget pour 2026.  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