{"id":281565,"date":"2025-06-01T21:01:30","date_gmt":"2025-06-01T19:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=281565"},"modified":"2025-06-02T00:09:26","modified_gmt":"2025-06-01T22:09:26","slug":"exit-poll-en-pologne-le-liberal-rafal-trzaskowski-donne-gagnant-dans-un-sondage-de-sortie-des-urnes-mais-dans-la-marge-derreur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/06\/01\/exit-poll-en-pologne-le-liberal-rafal-trzaskowski-donne-gagnant-dans-un-sondage-de-sortie-des-urnes-mais-dans-la-marge-derreur\/","title":{"rendered":"Exit poll en Pologne&#160;: le lib\u00e9ral Rafa\u0142 Trzaskowski donn\u00e9 gagnant dans un sondage de sortie des urnes, mais dans la marge d\u2019erreur"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Selon une nouvelle projection \u00e0 partir des premiers sondages de sortie des urnes (<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/06\/01\/exit-poll-en-pologne-le-liberal-rafal-trzaskowski-donne-gagnant-dans-un-sondage-de-sortie-des-urnes-mais-dans-la-marge-derreur\/\">exit poll<\/a>), le candidat du parti d\u2019extr\u00eame droite\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/06\/01\/qui-est-karol-nawrocki-lhistorien-choisi-par-le-parti-national-conservateur-droit-et-justice-pis-pour-la-presidentielle-polonaise\/\">Karol Nawrocki<\/a>\u00a0serait d\u00e9sormais en t\u00eate \u2014 pour suivre notre analyse \u00e0 chaud\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/06\/01\/en-pologne-karol-nawrocki-le-candidat-dextreme-droite-serait-en-tete-nouvelle-projection-23h15\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">cliquez ici<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les Polonais votaient aujourd\u2019hui pour \u00e9lire leur pr\u00e9sident. Selon les sondages de sortie des urnes r\u00e9alis\u00e9s publi\u00e9s \u00e0 la fermeture des bureaux de vote \u00e0 21 h, le r\u00e9sultat est serr\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/dF05T\/ \" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Selon le sondage Ipsos pour les principaux m\u00e9dias polonais \u2013 TVP, TVN et Polsat News&#160;:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Il semble que <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/06\/01\/qui-est-rafal-trzaskowski-le-candidat-de-la-coalition-civique-de-donald-tusk-pour-lelection-presidentielle-polonaise\/\">Rafa\u0142 Trzaskowski<\/a>, le maire lib\u00e9ral de Varsovie, membre de la Coalition civique de Donald Tusk, ait remport\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9lection, avec 50,3&#160;% des voix.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Il serait suivi par <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/06\/01\/qui-est-karol-nawrocki-lhistorien-choisi-par-le-parti-national-conservateur-droit-et-justice-pis-pour-la-presidentielle-polonaise\/\">Karol Nawrocki<\/a>, le candidat du parti national-conservateur Droit et justice (PiS), avec 49,7&#160;% des voix.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Selon le sondage OGB pour TV Republika, cha\u00eene r\u00e9put\u00e9e nationaliste, Trzaskowski serait arriv\u00e9 premier avec 50,2&#160;% des voix, contre 49,8&#160;% pour Nawrocki.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les sondages de sortie des urnes sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement fiables en Pologne, cependant la marge d\u2019erreur est de 2 points, ce qui veut dire que des r\u00e9sultats entre 48&#160;% et 52&#160;% ne sont pas statistiquement diff\u00e9rents. Il est donc encore possible que le rapport de force s\u2019inverse.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le prochain \u00ab&#160;<em>late poll<\/em>&#160;\u00bb (\u00ab&#160;sondage tardif&#160;\u00bb) d\u2019Ipsos est pr\u00e9vu pour plus tard dans la nuit, probablement vers 23 heures, et il sera plus pr\u00e9cis avec une marge d\u2019erreur d\u2019un point. Les r\u00e9sultats d\u00e9finitifs devraient \u00eatre publi\u00e9s demain matin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La participation a \u00e9t\u00e9 estim\u00e9e \u00e0 72,8&#160;%, contre 67,31&#160;% au premier tour du 18 mai dernier, et 68,18&#160;% au second tour de l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2020. Le surcro\u00eet de participation a souvent \u00e9t\u00e9 analys\u00e9 dans les derniers jours de la campagne comme un \u00e9l\u00e9ment favorable \u00e0 Trzaskowski.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En octobre 2023, lors des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives qui ont consacr\u00e9 le changement de majorit\u00e9 autour de Donald Tusk, 74,38&#160;% du corps \u00e9lectoral polonais s\u2019\u00e9taient exprim\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les Polonais ont vot\u00e9 ce dimanche pour \u00e9lire leur pr\u00e9sident. D\u2019apr\u00e8s les premi\u00e8res estimations publi\u00e9es \u00e0 21h, Rafa\u0142 Trzaskowski arrive en t\u00eate, mais l\u2019\u00e9cart est minime et l\u2019issue du scrutin reste incertaine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":281570,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2980],"tags":[],"geo":[536],"class_list":["post-281565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","geo-centres"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Exit poll en Pologne : le lib\u00e9ral Rafa\u0142 Trzaskowski donn\u00e9 gagnant dans un sondage de sortie des urnes, mais dans la marge d\u2019erreur | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/06\/01\/exit-poll-en-pologne-le-liberal-rafal-trzaskowski-donne-gagnant-dans-un-sondage-de-sortie-des-urnes-mais-dans-la-marge-derreur\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Exit poll en Pologne : le lib\u00e9ral Rafa\u0142 Trzaskowski donn\u00e9 gagnant dans un sondage de sortie des urnes, mais dans la marge d\u2019erreur | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les Polonais ont vot\u00e9 ce dimanche pour \u00e9lire leur pr\u00e9sident. 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