{"id":279606,"date":"2025-05-17T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-17T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=279606"},"modified":"2025-05-16T18:13:43","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T16:13:43","slug":"vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/17\/vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans\/","title":{"rendered":"Vers un \u00ab&#160;hiver d\u00e9mographique&#160;\u00bb&#160;? En Russie, la perspective d\u2019une retraite \u00e0 80 ans"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Dans un rapport publi\u00e9 jeudi 15 mai, le Centre Panrusse d&rsquo;\u00e9tude de l&rsquo;opinion publique, VTsIOM, a dress\u00e9 un portrait de la crise d\u00e9mographique qui menace \u00e0 terme la Russie en explorant quatre sc\u00e9narios qui \u00ab&#160;d\u00e9pendent du degr\u00e9 d&rsquo;implication de l&rsquo;\u00c9tat dans la r\u00e9solution du probl\u00e8me&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-279606' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/17\/vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-279606' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/wciom.ru\/fileadmin\/user_upload\/futurologicheskii_kongress-2036_demografija.pdf&quot;&gt;\u00ab&amp;#160;\u0424\u0443\u0442\u0443\u0440\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0433\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0441 \u2014 2036&amp;#160;\u00bb. \u0414\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0442\u0440\u0435\u043d\u0434\u044b, \u0412\u0441\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0446\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0440 \u0438\u0437\u0443\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043e\u0431\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043c\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f&lt;\/a&gt;, 15 mai 2025.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Le dernier sc\u00e9nario, qualifi\u00e9 \u00ab&#160;d\u2019hiver d\u00e9mographique&#160;\u00bb, conduirait \u00e0 la division par deux de la population russe d\u2019ici la fin du XXIe si\u00e8cle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon les auteurs du rapport, la poursuite des \u00ab&#160;tendances actuelles en mati\u00e8re de f\u00e9condit\u00e9&#160;\u00bb, les taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s de mortalit\u00e9, la faible esp\u00e9rance de vie ainsi que la quasi-absence de migration rendront n\u00e9cessaire la mise en place d\u2019une retraite \u00e0 80 ans \u2014 \u00ab&#160;si l\u2019esp\u00e9rance de vie le permet&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Apr\u00e8s une chute drastique durant la pand\u00e9mie de coronavirus, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/16\/les-pays-europeens-ont-mieux-reagi-a-la-pandemie-de-covid-19-que-les-etats-unis-ou-la-chine\/\">l\u2019esp\u00e9rance de vie moyenne en Russie<\/a> est revenue \u00e0 ses niveaux pr\u00e9-pand\u00e9miques (73 ans), mais celle-ci demeure toujours largement inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la moyenne europ\u00e9enne (81 ans) ou bien \u00e0 la Chine (78 ans).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les pertes massives subies par l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe en Ukraine depuis le lancement de l\u2019invasion de f\u00e9vrier 2022 \u2014 estim\u00e9es par Kiev \u00e0 pr\u00e8s d\u2019un million de soldats tu\u00e9s et bless\u00e9s \u2014 contribuent quant \u00e0 elles \u00e0 la hausse de la surmortalit\u00e9 masculine.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En cons\u00e9quence, la part des 65 ans et plus dans la population a presque doubl\u00e9 au cours des 50 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, passant de 8,4&#160;% en 1973 \u00e0 16,6&#160;% en 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/6FmEK\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Avec 141 enfants pour 100 femmes en moyenne au cours de leur vie, le taux de fertilit\u00e9 russe est l\u2019un des plus faibles au monde. Ces derniers mois, Vladimir Poutine a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 \u00e0 plusieurs reprises vouloir atteindre un taux de 2,3 d\u2019ici 2030 afin d\u2019\u00e9viter \u00ab&#160;l\u2019extinction&#160;\u00bb du peuple russe&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-279606' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/17\/vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-279606' title='&lt;a href=&quot;http:\/\/kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/75918&quot;&gt;\u0417\u0430\u0441\u0435\u0434\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0413\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0421\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0442\u0430&lt;\/a&gt;, Kremlin, 20 d\u00e9cembre 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, le \u00ab&#160;seuil de remplacement&#160;\u00bb se situe environ \u00e0 2,1 enfants par femme. En-dessous de ce niveau, le nombre de nouveau-n\u00e9s ne parvient pas \u00e0 compenser les d\u00e9c\u00e8s.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Afin de relancer le taux de fertilit\u00e9, en baisse constante depuis 2016, plusieurs mesures ont \u00e9t\u00e9 introduites par les autorit\u00e9s, parmi lesquelles l\u2019interdiction de \u00ab&#160;l\u2019incitation \u00e0 l\u2019avortement&#160;\u00bb sous peine d\u2019une amende, de la \u00ab&#160;propagande des relations sexuelles non-traditionnelles&#160;\u00bb (\u00e0 savoir la \u00ab&#160;promotion&#160;\u00bb de l\u2019homosexualit\u00e9 et de \u00ab&#160;l\u2019id\u00e9ologie LGBT&#160;\u00bb), ou encore le versement d\u2019un \u00ab&#160;bonus&#160;\u00bb de 100 000 roubles (environ 1 100 euros) aux \u00e9tudiantes d\u00e9clarant une grossesse dans certains oblasts&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-279606' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/17\/vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-279606' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.rbc.ru\/rbcfreenews\/67e0fd0e9a7947c49e22853c&quot;&gt;\u0412 \u041e\u0440\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u0431\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0448\u043a\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0438\u0446\u044b \u043f\u043e\u043b\u0443\u0447\u0430\u0442 \u20bd100 \u0442\u044b\u0441. \u0437\u0430 \u0431\u0435\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;RBC&lt;\/em&gt;, 24 mars 2025.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/R5gfy\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les autorit\u00e9s f\u00e9d\u00e9rales et r\u00e9gionales explorent \u00e9galement de nombreuses politiques natalistes visant \u00e0 encourager les familles russes \u00e0 procr\u00e9er.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le d\u00e9put\u00e9 \u00e0 la Douma d\u2019\u00c9tat Andre\u00ef Svintsov a ainsi sugg\u00e9r\u00e9 d&rsquo;interdire la vente d\u2019alcool le dimanche, et le s\u00e9nateur de l\u2019oblast de Magadan Anatoly Shirokov a propos\u00e9 de limiter la mise sur le march\u00e9 d\u2019appartements une pi\u00e8ce.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le ministre du D\u00e9veloppement de l\u2019Extr\u00eame-Orient, Alexe\u00ef Tchekounkov, a quant \u00e0 lui \u00e9voqu\u00e9 lors d\u2019une discussion avec Poutine l\u2019introduction d\u2019une obligation pour les \u00e9v\u00eaques de \u00ab&#160;baptiser personnellement le quatri\u00e8me enfant d\u2019une famille&#160;\u00bb afin \u00ab&#160;d\u2019inciter les familles croyantes \u00e0 avoir beaucoup d\u2019enfants&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-279606' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/17\/vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-279606' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/t.me\/Govorit_NeMoskva\/32767&quot;&gt;Publication sur Telegram de \u0413\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0442 \u041d\u0435\u041c\u043e\u0441\u043a\u0432\u0430&lt;\/a&gt;, 4 septembre 2024.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pour la s\u00e9natrice de l\u2019oblast de Tcheliabinsk Margarita Pavlova, la faible natalit\u00e9 russe est en partie provoqu\u00e9e par l\u2019acc\u00e8s des femmes \u00e0 l\u2019enseignement sup\u00e9rieur. Afin de relancer la croissance d\u00e9mographique, Pavlova sugg\u00e8re de \u00ab&#160;cesser d\u2019orienter les jeunes filles vers l\u2019enseignement sup\u00e9rieur&#160;\u00bb, leur \u00ab&#160;raison d\u2019\u00eatre&#160;\u00bb \u00e9tant de \u00ab&#160;donner naissance et de pr\u00e9server le foyer&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-279606' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/17\/vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-279606' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/t.me\/kosa_media\/1167&quot;&gt;Publication sur Telegram de \u041a\u043e\u0441\u0430 \u2014 \u043c\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0430 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0436\u0435\u043d\u0449\u0438\u043d&lt;\/a&gt;, 14 novembre 2023.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Les extr\u00eames-droites aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Hongrie per\u00e7oivent elles aussi le \u00ab&#160;risque d\u2019extinction&#160;\u00bb comme constituant l&rsquo;un des d\u00e9fis les plus importants. Durant la campagne de 2024, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/03\/project-2025-le-texte-de-j-d-vance-que-la-campagne-trump-a-voulu-cacher-a-ses-electeurs\/\">J.D. Vance a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 un discours nataliste<\/a> vantant le caract\u00e8re \u00ab&#160;patriotique&#160;\u00bb des familles nombreuses en opposition aux femmes d\u00e9mocrates sans enfants \u00ab&#160;qui ne s\u2019occupent que de leurs chats&#160;\u00bb (\u00ab&#160;<em>childless cat ladies&#160;\u00bb<\/em>).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon un rapport publi\u00e9 jeudi 15 mai par le Centre Panrusse d&rsquo;\u00e9tude de l&rsquo;opinion publique, VTsIOM, la poursuite des tendances d\u00e9mographiques \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u0153uvre en Russie (taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s de mortalit\u00e9, faible esp\u00e9rance de vie, quasi-absence de migration) est susceptible de conduire \u00e0 la division par deux de la population d\u2019ici la fin du si\u00e8cle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":279616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1926],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[550],"class_list":["post-279606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-demographie","geo-russie"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Vers un \u00abhiver d\u00e9mographique\u00bb ? En Russie, la perspective d\u2019une retraite \u00e0 80 ans | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/17\/vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Vers un \u00abhiver d\u00e9mographique\u00bb ? En Russie, la perspective d\u2019une retraite \u00e0 80 ans | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Selon un rapport publi\u00e9 jeudi 15 mai par le Centre Panrusse d&#039;\u00e9tude de l&#039;opinion publique, VTsIOM, la poursuite des tendances d\u00e9mographiques \u00e0 l&#039;\u0153uvre en Russie (taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s de mortalit\u00e9, faible esp\u00e9rance de vie, quasi-absence de migration) est susceptible de conduire \u00e0 la division par deux de la population d\u2019ici la fin du si\u00e8cle.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/17\/vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-17T05:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/gc-share-hiver-demographique-russie.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1904\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1062\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/gc-share-hiver-demographique-russie.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/17\/vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/05\/17\/vers-un-hiver-demographique-en-russie-la-perspective-dune-retraite-a-80-ans\/\",\"name\":\"Vers un \u00abhiver d\u00e9mographique\u00bb ? 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