{"id":266171,"date":"2025-03-02T22:45:35","date_gmt":"2025-03-02T21:45:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=266171"},"modified":"2025-03-02T23:41:11","modified_gmt":"2025-03-02T22:41:11","slug":"malgre-des-pertes-le-centre-gauche-conserve-sa-majorite-a-hambourg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/03\/02\/malgre-des-pertes-le-centre-gauche-conserve-sa-majorite-a-hambourg\/","title":{"rendered":"Malgr\u00e9 des pertes, le centre-gauche conserve sa majorit\u00e9 \u00e0 Hambourg"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><br>D\u2019apr\u00e8s les projections Infratest Dimap pour l\u2019ARD, le SPD (S&amp;D) l\u2019a largement emport\u00e9 avec 33,5&#160;% des voix malgr\u00e9 un recul (-5,7 pp). Les Verts obtiennent 17,5&#160;% (-6,7 pp) mais doivent c\u00e9der la deuxi\u00e8me place \u00e0 la CDU, qui double presque sa part de voix \u00e0 19,5&#160;% (+8,3 pp). Dans la lanc\u00e9e de son bon r\u00e9sultat au f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, la Linke (GUE\/NGL) d\u00e9passe la barre des 10&#160;% avec 11,5&#160;% (+2,4 pp). L\u2019AfD (ESN) recueille \u00e9galement un score historiquement \u00e9lev\u00e9 avec 8,2&#160;% des suffrages (+3,2 pp). Le FDP et le BSW obtiennent autour de 2&#160;% des voix et \u00e9chouent \u00e0 entrer au parlement. C\u2019est \u00e9galement le cas du parti euro-f\u00e9d\u00e9raliste Volt (Verts\/ALE), qui obtient cependant un succ\u00e8s d\u2019estime avec 3&#160;% de voix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019\u00e9lection constitue un \u00e9chec relatif pour l\u2019AfD dans ce bastion de gauche. Selon les sondages r\u00e9alis\u00e9s le jour du vote, le parti n\u2019est pas parvenu \u00e0 d\u00e9tourner les \u00e9lecteurs de la CDU, b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiant principalement du report d\u2019anciens abstentionnistes. La participation est en nette hausse, \u00e0 68&#160;% (+4,8 pp).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dans la lanc\u00e9e de ses bons r\u00e9sultats la semaine pass\u00e9e, la Linke prendrait 12 000 voix aux Verts et 2 000 au SPD et recueillerait les suffrages de 6 000 anciens non-votants. Le parti de gauche radicale talonne les SPD parmi les moins de 25 ans, obtenant 25&#160;% des voix et s\u2019imposant notamment sur la th\u00e9matique du logement. Le SPD perd environ autant d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs \u00e0 la CDU (22 000) qu\u2019elle en re\u00e7oit des Verts (21 000), ce qui devrait conforter un cours centriste du parti. Chez les plus de 60 ans, le SPD reste tr\u00e8s dominant, \u00e0 44&#160;% des voix.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium \">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/iframes\/hamburger_buergerschaft_20250302_1800.html\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La coalition sortante rouge-verte men\u00e9e par Peter Tschentscher (SPD) d\u00e9tient toujours une claire majorit\u00e9 de 69 si\u00e8ges sur 121. Une Grande coalition SPD-CDU serait arithm\u00e9tiquement possible mais appara\u00eet peu probable en raison de la proximit\u00e9 programmatique entre les partis de centre-gauche. \u00c0 ce stade, il manquerait un si\u00e8ge \u00e0 une coalition entre le SPD et la Linke pour d\u00e9tenir une majorit\u00e9 au parlement r\u00e9gional. La poursuite de l\u2019alliance sortante appara\u00eet donc tr\u00e8s probable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le travail du Premier maire de Hambourg, qui a succ\u00e9d\u00e9 \u00e0 Olaf Scholz en 2018, recueille l\u2019approbation de 66&#160;% de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat. La satisfaction avec la coalition sortante s\u2019\u00e9levait \u00e0 61&#160;%, en baisse (-5 pp). La popularit\u00e9 de Tschenscher a jou\u00e9 en faveur des sociaux-d\u00e9mocrates, alors m\u00eame que le th\u00e8me \u00ab&#160;ordre et s\u00e9curit\u00e9&#160;\u00bb \u00e9tait en t\u00eate des pr\u00e9occupations des \u00e9lecteurs selon les sondages.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Une semaine apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections f\u00e9d\u00e9rales qui ont vu la victoire de la CDU (PPE) de Friedrich Merz, l\u2019unique \u00e9lection r\u00e9gionale de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2025 avait lieu \u00e0 Hambourg.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":266173,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":3,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2980],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-266171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":266173,"excerpt":"Une semaine apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections f\u00e9d\u00e9rales qui ont vu la victoire de la CDU (PPE) de Friedrich Merz, l\u2019unique \u00e9lection r\u00e9gionale de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2025 avait lieu \u00e0 Hambourg.\r\n","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin 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