{"id":260443,"date":"2025-01-28T20:30:50","date_gmt":"2025-01-28T19:30:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=260443"},"modified":"2025-01-28T20:32:14","modified_gmt":"2025-01-28T19:32:14","slug":"nucleaire-climat-ia-le-monde-na-jamais-ete-aussi-proche-dune-catastrophe-globale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/01\/28\/nucleaire-climat-ia-le-monde-na-jamais-ete-aussi-proche-dune-catastrophe-globale\/","title":{"rendered":"Nucl\u00e9aire, climat, IA&#160;: le monde n\u2019a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi proche d\u2019une catastrophe globale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Le Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, une revue scientifique am\u00e9ricaine qui donne chaque ann\u00e9e le \u00ab&#160;pouls&#160;\u00bb des menaces nucl\u00e9aires, technologiques et environnementales qui p\u00e8sent sur le monde via son \u00ab&#160;horloge de la fin du monde&#160;\u00bb \u2014 plus l\u2019heure est proche de minuit, plus les risques sont jug\u00e9s \u00e9lev\u00e9s \u2014 a publi\u00e9 sa derni\u00e8re mise \u00e0 jour mardi 28 janvier&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-260443' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/01\/28\/nucleaire-climat-ia-le-monde-na-jamais-ete-aussi-proche-dune-catastrophe-globale\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-260443' title='John Mecklin, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/thebulletin.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-Doomsday-Clock-Statement.pdf&quot;&gt;Closer than ever&amp;#160;: It is now 89 seconds to midnight. 2025 Doomsday Clock Statement&lt;\/a&gt;, Science and Security, &lt;em&gt;Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists&lt;\/em&gt;, 28 janvier 2025.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette ann\u00e9e, l\u2019horloge indique que le monde n\u2019est plus qu\u2019\u00e0 89 secondes de minuit, soit le plus proche depuis sa premi\u00e8re publication en 1947.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019invasion russe \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle de l\u2019Ukraine avait propuls\u00e9 le monde \u00e0 90 secondes de minuit (contre 100 auparavant), notamment en raison des risques de conflit nucl\u00e9aire entre la Russie et l\u2019OTAN.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En 2024, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/19\/nucleaire-russe-que-change-la-nouvelle-doctrine-poutine\/\">le Kremlin a r\u00e9vis\u00e9 sa doctrine<\/a> en mati\u00e8re d\u2019utilisation de son arsenal atomique afin de viser explicitement les soutiens occidentaux de l\u2019Ukraine \u2014 \u00c9tats-Unis, France, Royaume-Uni notamment \u2014 qui fournissent des armes et du mat\u00e9riel militaire \u00e0 Kiev.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La Chine a quant \u00e0 elle davantage <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/19\/pekin-pourrait-disposer-dun-arsenal-atomique-deploye-equivalent-a-celui-des-etats-unis-dici-la-decennie-2030\/#:~:text=Le%20d%C3%A9veloppement%20le%20plus%20significatif,dernier%2C%20et%20200%20en%202019.\">\u00e9largi son arsenal nucl\u00e9aire<\/a> l\u2019an dernier et poss\u00e9derait \u00e0 ce jour plus de 600 ogives nucl\u00e9aires \u2014 contre 200 en 2019. La courbe de progression du nombre de t\u00eates nucl\u00e9aires sugg\u00e8re que l\u2019arm\u00e9e chinoise pourrait ainsi \u00e9galer l\u2019arm\u00e9e am\u00e9ricaine au cours de la d\u00e9cennie 2030 en termes d\u2019ogives d\u00e9ploy\u00e9es.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium \">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/20876253\/embed\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 ce renforcement des risques nucl\u00e9aires s\u2019ajoute l\u2019imp\u00e9ratif climatique de plus en plus pressant, l\u2019augmentation des menaces d\u2019ordre biologiques (notamment le risque de nouvelles pand\u00e9mies) ainsi que les risques pos\u00e9s par les nouvelles technologies, comme l\u2019intelligence artificielle. Le rapport souligne notamment le d\u00e9veloppement d\u2019applications d\u2019IA par les arm\u00e9es \u2014 Tsahal en a fait <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/17\/gaza-israel-et-liran-dans-la-nouvelle-phase-au-moyen-orient-une-conversation-avec-ghassan-salame\/#:~:text=L'arm%C3%A9e%20isra%C3%A9lienne%20pourrait%20%C3%A9galement,assassinats%20cibl%C3%A9s%20au%20Sud%2DLiban.\">une utilisation extensive<\/a> \u00e0 Gaza \u2014 pour identifier, cibler et \u00e9liminer des cibles, et le risque que celles-ci ne soient \u00e9largies aux armes nucl\u00e9aires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/oeebg\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/01\/22\/trump-et-lannexion-du-groenland-nous-sommes-tres-franchement-le-predateur-dominant\/\">menaces de Trump et de ses alli\u00e9s r\u00e9publicains<\/a> vis-\u00e0-vis de membres de l\u2019OTAN, comme le Danemark, contribuent elles aussi \u00e0 d\u00e9stabiliser le monde et \u00e0 augmenter le risque d\u2019\u00e9clatement d\u2019une crise internationale.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Si Trump n\u2019a pas signal\u00e9 son intention d\u2019augmenter la taille de l\u2019arsenal atomique am\u00e9ricain afin de conserver l\u2019avance de Washington vis-\u00e0-vis de P\u00e9kin, la perspective d\u2019un retrait de la protection am\u00e9ricaine en cas de d\u00e9penses de d\u00e9fense jug\u00e9es insuffisantes pourrait conduire certains pays \u00e0 chercher \u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/05\/05\/la-course-a-la-bombe-atomique-a-quoi-ressemblerait-un-monde-a-17-puissances-nucleaires\/\">d\u00e9velopper leur propre programme nucl\u00e9aire militaire<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/59eUZ\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024 a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 marqu\u00e9e par <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/23\/lenvoi-par-la-coree-du-nord-de-troupes-en-russie-constitue-lune-des-escalades-les-plus-importantes-depuis-fevrier-2022\/\">l\u2019envoi par Pyongyang de soldats nord-cor\u00e9ens<\/a> pour combattre aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe dans l\u2019oblast de Koursk, en Russie, suite \u00e0 l\u2019incursion lanc\u00e9e par Kiev \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9. L\u2019Ukraine \u00e9tait alors devenue le deuxi\u00e8me pays de l&rsquo;histoire \u2014 apr\u00e8s l\u2019Argentine \u2014 a avoir envahi un \u00c9tat dot\u00e9 de l\u2019arme nucl\u00e9aire, faisant craindre une r\u00e9ponse nucl\u00e9aire tactique de Moscou.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Selon la derni\u00e8re mise \u00e0 jour de \u00ab&#160;&#160;l\u2019horloge de la fin du monde&#160;&#160;\u00bb publi\u00e9e mardi 28 janvier par la revue am\u00e9ricaine <em>Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/em>, l\u2019humanit\u00e9 n\u2019a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi proche de \u00ab&#160;&#160;l\u2019apocalypse&#160;&#160;\u00bb. Les menaces nucl\u00e9aires grandissantes entre la Russie et l\u2019OTAN, l\u2019urgence climatique, les armes biologiques ainsi que l\u2019utilisation de l\u2019IA dans les conflits arm\u00e9s renforcent davantage les risques de catastrophe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":260449,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2345],"tags":[],"geo":[2163],"class_list":["post-260443","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-securite","geo-monde"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Nucl\u00e9aire, climat, IA : le monde n\u2019a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi proche d\u2019une catastrophe globale | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/01\/28\/nucleaire-climat-ia-le-monde-na-jamais-ete-aussi-proche-dune-catastrophe-globale\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nucl\u00e9aire, climat, IA : le monde n\u2019a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi proche d\u2019une catastrophe globale | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Selon la derni\u00e8re mise \u00e0 jour de \u00ab&#160;l\u2019horloge de la fin du monde&#160;\u00bb publi\u00e9e mardi 28 janvier par la revue am\u00e9ricaine Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, l\u2019humanit\u00e9 n\u2019a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi proche de \u00ab&#160;l\u2019apocalypse&#160;\u00bb. Les menaces nucl\u00e9aires grandissantes entre la Russie et l\u2019OTAN, l\u2019urgence climatique, les armes biologiques ainsi que l\u2019utilisation de l\u2019IA dans les conflits arm\u00e9s renforcent davantage les risques de catastrophe.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/01\/28\/nucleaire-climat-ia-le-monde-na-jamais-ete-aussi-proche-dune-catastrophe-globale\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-01-28T19:30:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-01-28T19:32:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/gc-share-doomsday-2025.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1906\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1072\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta 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