{"id":256104,"date":"2024-12-28T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-28T06:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=256104"},"modified":"2024-12-27T21:26:24","modified_gmt":"2024-12-27T20:26:24","slug":"quelles-perspectives-pour-leconomie-russe-en-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/28\/quelles-perspectives-pour-leconomie-russe-en-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Quelles perspectives pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe en 2025&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Depuis 2022, l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe d\u00e9fie les attentes, avec une croissance de 3,6&#160;% en 2023 et probablement de 4&#160;% cette ann\u00e9e. Les revenus des m\u00e9nages sont en hausse, le ch\u00f4mage est \u00e0 son niveau le plus bas, et la Chine \u00e9tudie d\u00e9sormais le mod\u00e8le russe en pr\u00e9vision d\u2019une possible invasion de Ta\u00efwan&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-256104' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/28\/quelles-perspectives-pour-leconomie-russe-en-2025\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-256104' title='Georgi Kantchev et Lingling Wei, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/china-is-studying-russias-sanctions-evasion-to-prepare-for-taiwan-conflict-5665f508&quot;&gt;China Is Studying Russia\u2019s Sanctions Evasion to Prepare for Taiwan Conflict&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Wall Street Journal&lt;\/em&gt;, 1er d\u00e9cembre 2024'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>L\u2019illusion d&rsquo;une bonne sant\u00e9 \u00e9conomique repose pourtant sur quelques facteurs clefs qui risquent de se d\u00e9composer \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les d\u00e9penses engag\u00e9es par le Kremlin pour ses achats d\u2019armes et l\u2019entretien de son arm\u00e9e sont en hausse de 40&#160;% cette ann\u00e9e sur la p\u00e9riode janvier-septembre par rapport \u00e0 2023, \u00e0 tel point que la Russie d\u00e9pense en moyenne <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/10\/guerre-en-ukraine-la-russie-depense-en-moyenne-2-milliards-de-roubles-par-heure-pour-son-armee\/\">2 milliards de roubles par heure<\/a> pour son arm\u00e9e.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pourtant, le complexe militaro-industriel souffre de faiblesses structurelles majeures, comme en t\u00e9moigne la d\u00e9pendance croissante vis-\u00e0-vis de la Cor\u00e9e du Nord. Selon, l\u2019arm\u00e9e sud-cor\u00e9enne, Pyongyang s\u2019appr\u00eaterait \u00e0 accro\u00eetre davantage son soutien militaire apport\u00e9 \u00e0 la Russie&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-256104' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/28\/quelles-perspectives-pour-leconomie-russe-en-2025\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-256104' title='Jiheon Kim, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.yna.co.kr\/view\/AKR20241223050500504?section=north-korea\/all&quot;&gt;\ubd81, \ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc790\ud3ed\ud615 \ubb34\uc778\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc9c0\uc6d0 \ub3d9\ud5a5\u2026\uad50\ub300\u00b7\uc99d\uc6d0\uad70 \uc900\ube44\ub3c4&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Yonhap News Agency&lt;\/em&gt;, 23 d\u00e9cembre 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/9s7Sy\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>L&rsquo;inflation a atteint 9,5&#160;% en 2024 (<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/18\/en-russie-le-prix-des-produits-alimentaires-a-explose-depuis-le-debut-de-lannee\/\">le prix du beurre est en hausse de plus de 30&#160;%<\/a> sur l\u2019ann\u00e9e) et les taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat sont \u00e0 21&#160;%, sans grand effet sur la dynamique des prix. Le pays est confront\u00e9 \u00e0 une p\u00e9nurie de plus de 1,5 million de travailleurs qualifi\u00e9s. Les industries extractives enregistrent une baisse de la production, alors que les prix pour l\u2019exportation des hydrocarbures sont en baisse. Dans le m\u00eame temps, le pays voit une stagnation des recettes d&rsquo;exportation due aux sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/E7GS0\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pour 2025, le FMI table sur une croissance russe de 1,3&#160;%. Aucun signe toutefois d\u2019un changement de cap&#160;: en 2025, les d\u00e9penses de d\u00e9fense devraient atteindre 145 milliards de dollars, soit le plus haut niveau depuis l&rsquo;effondrement de l\u2019URSS (6,3&#160;% du PIB), contre 66 milliards en 2021.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Toutefois, toute augmentation de la production militaire risque d\u2019entra\u00eener une hausse de l\u2019inflation ou d&rsquo;affaiblir davantage les autres secteurs \u00e9conomiques.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En plus des tendances d\u00e9mographiques n\u00e9gatives, les disparit\u00e9s g\u00e9ographiques de cette \u00e9conomie de guerre \u2014 certaines des r\u00e9gions les plus pauvres, qui ont envoy\u00e9 le plus grand nombre de soldats au front, en ont b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 \u2014 pourraient aussi avoir un effet sur les perspectives de croissance \u00e0 long terme&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-256104' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/28\/quelles-perspectives-pour-leconomie-russe-en-2025\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-256104' title='Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Iikka Korhonen et Elina Ribakova, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/cepr.org\/voxeu\/columns\/russian-economy-war-footing-new-reality-financed-commodity-exports&quot;&gt;The Russian economy on a war footing&amp;#160;: A new reality financed by commodity exports&lt;\/a&gt;, CEPR, 24 mai 2024'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les sanctions impos\u00e9es \u00e0 la Russie par les pays occidentaux ont s\u00e9v\u00e8rement impact\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9conomie du pays. Si elles n\u2019ont pas suffi \u00e0 paralyser suffisamment son industrie pour contraindre Moscou \u00e0 mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre, le co\u00fbt de l\u2019agression est de plus en plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 pour Poutine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":256110,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1727],"tags":[],"geo":[550],"class_list":["post-256104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","geo-russie"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Quelles perspectives pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe en 2025 ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/28\/quelles-perspectives-pour-leconomie-russe-en-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Quelles perspectives pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe en 2025 ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les sanctions impos\u00e9es \u00e0 la Russie par les pays occidentaux ont s\u00e9v\u00e8rement impact\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9conomie du pays. Si elles n\u2019ont pas suffi \u00e0 paralyser suffisamment son industrie pour contraindre Moscou \u00e0 mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre, le co\u00fbt de l\u2019agression est de plus en plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 pour Poutine.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/28\/quelles-perspectives-pour-leconomie-russe-en-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-28T06:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/gc-share-economie-russe-2025.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1910\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1072\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/gc-share-economie-russe-2025.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/28\/quelles-perspectives-pour-leconomie-russe-en-2025\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/28\/quelles-perspectives-pour-leconomie-russe-en-2025\/\",\"name\":\"Quelles perspectives pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie russe en 2025 ? 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