{"id":255901,"date":"2024-12-26T15:55:12","date_gmt":"2024-12-26T14:55:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=255901"},"modified":"2024-12-26T15:55:47","modified_gmt":"2024-12-26T14:55:47","slug":"lukraine-dans-la-guerre-en-2024-une-retrospective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/26\/lukraine-dans-la-guerre-en-2024-une-retrospective\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019Ukraine dans la guerre en 2024&#160;: une r\u00e9trospective"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Le manque de soutien militaire ext\u00e9rieur en d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e a compliqu\u00e9 la position de l&rsquo;Ukraine, qui s\u2019est <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/02\/19\/avdiivka-est-tombee-quelles-consequences-pour-le-front-ukrainien\/\">retir\u00e9e en f\u00e9vrier d\u2019Avdiivka<\/a> et a essuy\u00e9 d&rsquo;autres revers tout au long de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En avril, le Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain a adopt\u00e9 un nouveau paquet d\u2019assistance de <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/04\/23\/sur-les-61-milliards-contenus-dans-le-projet-de-loi-americain-daide-a-kiev-2317-sont-pour-larmee-ukrainienne\/\">61 milliards de dollars<\/a> et, en novembre, Washington a autoris\u00e9 Kiev \u00e0 frapper le territoire russe avec des missiles \u00e0 longue port\u00e9e, sans changer consid\u00e9rablement le rapport de force sur le front.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Afin de se doter d\u2019une monnaie d\u2019\u00e9change en amont des discussions, Kiev a envahi cet \u00e9t\u00e9 une partie du territoire russe, dans l\u2019oblast de Koursk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/15\/100-jours-apres-le-lancement-de-son-incursion-a-koursk-lukraine-controle-toujours-550-km%C2%B2-de-territoire-russe\/\">La \u00ab&#160;poche&#160;\u00bb ukrainienne<\/a> s\u2019est toutefois r\u00e9duite depuis&#160;: elle est pass\u00e9e de 1320 km\u00b2 fin ao\u00fbt \u00e0 495 km\u00b2 au 20 d\u00e9cembre.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/zeMYp\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, le front en Ukraine a pourtant relativement peu boug\u00e9&#160;: l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe a progress\u00e9 de 2 904 km\u00b2 entre le 1er janvier et le 20 d\u00e9cembre, soit 0,48&#160;% de la surface du pays. Au rythme observ\u00e9 en 2024, il faudrait 4 ans \u00e0 Moscou pour conqu\u00e9rir le reste du Donbass (Donetsk et Louhansk) et 168 ans pour le pays entier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le bilan humain de la guerre (morts et bless\u00e9s) <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/18\/600-000-russes-480-000-ukrainiens-le-bilan-humain-de-la-guerre-en-ukraine-depasse-le-million-de-morts-et-blesses\/\">a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 le million<\/a> en septembre, et les avanc\u00e9es russes ont un lourd co\u00fbt&#160;: Moscou a subi plus de pertes en 2024 qu\u2019en 2022 et 2023 cumul\u00e9s.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019\u00e9volution du rythme des pertes russes depuis 2022 est quasi-lin\u00e9aire&#160;: de 9 840 pertes par mois en moyenne au cours de la premi\u00e8re ann\u00e9e d\u2019invasion, ce chiffre est pass\u00e9 \u00e0 21 106 l\u2019an dernier.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024, l\u2019arm\u00e9e russe perd environ 32 382 combattants par mois (bless\u00e9s et morts confondus).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/0mBgg\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La question est de savoir quelle paix pourrait \u00e9merger d\u2019une <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/09\/de-quoi-ont-parle-trump-et-zelensky-lors-de-leur-rencontre-a-paris\/\">m\u00e9diation par Trump<\/a>, qui avait promis durant la campagne de mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre en \u00ab&#160;24 heures&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans les jours suivant son investiture, le 20 janvier, l\u2019envoy\u00e9 sp\u00e9cial pour l\u2019Ukraine et la Russie nomm\u00e9 par Trump, Keith Kellogg, devrait se rendre \u00e0 Kiev en pr\u00e9paration d\u2019une visite du 47e pr\u00e9sident qui pourrait \u00eatre organis\u00e9e d\u00e9but 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019une force europ\u00e9enne en Ukraine garantissant le respect du cessez-le-feu fait son chemin depuis quelques semaines, bien que la France soit le seul pays ayant signifi\u00e9 son intention d\u2019y prendre part.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/gFXMa\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Au-del\u00e0 des combattants, \u00e9puis\u00e9s par pr\u00e8s de trois ans de guerre pour certains, la population ukrainienne est elle aussi de plus en plus hostile \u00e0 l&rsquo;id\u00e9e de continuer le combat dans l\u2019espoir de reconqu\u00e9rir \u00e0 terme les territoires occup\u00e9s. Dans <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/05\/57-des-ukrainiens-sont-desormais-favorables-a-des-negociations-avec-la-russie\/\">un sondage du mois d&rsquo;ao\u00fbt<\/a>, 57&#160;% des Ukrainiens se d\u00e9claraient favorables \u00e0 des n\u00e9gociations avec la Russie mais seulement 19&#160;% trouvaient acceptable que l\u2019Ukraine revendique uniquement les territoires qu\u2019elle contr\u00f4le actuellement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Si l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2022 a \u00e9t\u00e9 celle de l\u2019invasion et 2023 de la stagnation du front, l\u2019ann\u00e9e qui vient de s\u2019\u00e9couler a \u00e9t\u00e9 marqu\u00e9e par le lent effritement des lignes ukrainiennes \u2013 mais \u00e9galement par l\u2019ouverture d\u2019un nouveau front en territoire russe. En 2025, des progr\u00e8s vers un cessez-le-feu que Trump souhaiterait sceller devraient avoir lieu. Pour Kiev, la question est de savoir quelle paix \u00e9mergera d\u2019un potentiel accord avec Moscou.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":255905,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-255901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u2019Ukraine dans la guerre en 2024 : une r\u00e9trospective | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/12\/26\/lukraine-dans-la-guerre-en-2024-une-retrospective\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u2019Ukraine dans la guerre en 2024 : une r\u00e9trospective | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Si l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2022 a \u00e9t\u00e9 celle de l\u2019invasion et 2023 de la stagnation du front, l\u2019ann\u00e9e qui vient de s\u2019\u00e9couler a \u00e9t\u00e9 marqu\u00e9e par le lent effritement des lignes ukrainiennes \u2013 mais \u00e9galement par l\u2019ouverture d\u2019un nouveau front en territoire russe. En 2025, des progr\u00e8s vers un cessez-le-feu que Trump souhaiterait sceller devraient avoir lieu. 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