{"id":252517,"date":"2024-11-21T12:21:07","date_gmt":"2024-11-21T11:21:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=252517"},"modified":"2024-11-21T12:21:09","modified_gmt":"2024-11-21T11:21:09","slug":"en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/21\/en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible\/","title":{"rendered":"En Ukraine, une r\u00e9solution post-Minsk est-elle possible&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Cinq ans avant l\u2019arriv\u00e9e au pouvoir de Volodymyr Zelensky en mai 2019, la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine signaient les accords de Minsk visant \u00e0 mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre du Donbass. Lanc\u00e9e apr\u00e8s l\u2019invasion russe de la Crim\u00e9e au printemps 2014, celle-ci opposait Kiev \u00e0 des s\u00e9paratistes pro-russes dans les oblasts de Donetsk et Louhansk soutenus par la Russie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/Vttbh\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Les accords de Minsk I et II sont aujourd\u2019hui largement per\u00e7us comme un \u00e9chec. Malgr\u00e9 l&rsquo;implication de la France et de l\u2019Allemagne en tant que m\u00e9diateurs au sein du format Normandie, les cessez-le-feu pr\u00e9vus ont \u00e9t\u00e9 viol\u00e9s \u00e0 de nombreuses reprises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La Russie, qui revendiquait avant le 24 f\u00e9vrier 2022 indirectement environ 7&#160;% du territoire ukrainien via le contr\u00f4le partiel des \u00ab&#160;r\u00e9publiques populaires&#160;\u00bb de Louhansk et Donetsk ainsi que de la Crim\u00e9e, contr\u00f4le aujourd\u2019hui 18&#160;% de l\u2019Ukraine.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019Ukraine, \u00e0 qui les accords de Minsk I et II ont \u00e9t\u00e9 impos\u00e9s par la Russie sous la pression de Paris et Berlin notamment, ne se trouve pas aujourd\u2019hui en position d\u2019accepter un cessez-le-feu dans la continuit\u00e9 des accords de Minsk. Lors du sommet du G20 de 2022, Zelensky a publiquement ferm\u00e9 la porte \u00e0 cette possibilit\u00e9&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-252517' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/21\/en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-252517' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.president.gov.ua\/en\/news\/ukrayina-zavzhdi-bula-liderom-mirotvorchih-zusil-yaksho-rosi-79141&quot;&gt;Ukraine has always been a leader in peacemaking efforts&amp;#160;; if Russia wants to end this war, let it prove it with actions &amp;#8211; speech by the President of Ukraine at the G20 Summit&lt;\/a&gt;, Pr\u00e9sidence d\u2019Ukraine, 15 novembre 2022.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/60rJC\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Apr\u00e8s plus de 1 000 jours de guerre \u00e0 haute intensit\u00e9, la population ukrainienne est aujourd\u2019hui, selon <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/05\/57-des-ukrainiens-sont-desormais-favorables-a-des-negociations-avec-la-russie\/\">plusieurs enqu\u00eates d\u2019opinion<\/a>, majoritairement favorable \u00e0 une solution n\u00e9goci\u00e9e pour mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre \u2014 un revirement significatif par rapport aux deux premi\u00e8res ann\u00e9es du conflit&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-252517' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/21\/en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-252517' title='Benedict Vigers, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/653495\/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx&quot;&gt;Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War&lt;\/a&gt;, Gallup, 19 novembre 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Malgr\u00e9 l\u2019apparente ouverture de Poutine \u00e0 la n\u00e9gociation d\u2019un accord de cessez-le-feu et <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/19\/1-000e-jour-de-guerre-en-ukraine-vers-une-fin-du-conflit-en-2025\/\">les r\u00e9centes d\u00e9clarations de Zelensky en ce sens<\/a>, les deux parties s\u2019opposent \u00e0 toute concession territoriale&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-252517' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/21\/en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-252517' title='Guy Faulconbridge, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/putin-ascendant-ukraine-eyes-contours-trump-peace-deal-2024-11-20\/&quot;&gt;Putin, ascendant in Ukraine, eyes contours of a Trump peace deal&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Reuters&lt;\/em&gt;, 20 novembre 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. La question des garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 constitue elle aussi une pomme de discorde majeure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Au-del\u00e0 des concessions que les deux camps seraient pr\u00eats \u00e0 faire, il para\u00eet aujourd\u2019hui clair que l\u2019impr\u00e9cision et l\u2019ambigu\u00eft\u00e9 du langage utilis\u00e9 dans Minsk I et II ont constitu\u00e9 un obstacle majeur \u00e0 toute mise en \u0153uvre des accords&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-252517' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/21\/en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-252517' title='\u00c5TLAND, Kristian, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1057\/s41311-024-00637-x&quot;&gt;War, diplomacy, and more war&amp;#160;: why did the Minsk agreements fail&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;International Politics&lt;\/em&gt;, 2024, p. 1-21.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les deux parties tenaient des points de vue contradictoires et parfois irr\u00e9conciliables sur ce qui avait suppos\u00e9ment fait l\u2019objet d\u2019accord, rendant l\u2019interpr\u00e9tation et donc le respect des textes impossibles.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Il est difficile \u00e0 ce jour de voir comment Donald Trump, une fois investi, serait en mesure de pousser les deux camps \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier un accord que Poutine consid\u00e9rerait comme une victoire tout en garantissant \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine des garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 suffisantes pour \u00e9viter la r\u00e9p\u00e9tition de l\u2019\u00e9chec de Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/pyREr\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019entourage qui exerce une influence directe sur le pr\u00e9sident-\u00e9lu est lui-m\u00eame divis\u00e9&#160;: une partie consid\u00e8re que les \u00c9tats-Unis doivent accro\u00eetre la pression sur Poutine en fournissant plus de moyens militaires \u00e0 l\u2019Ukraine et en \u00e9largissant les sanctions, notamment contre le secteur \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique russe. D\u2019autres soutiennent qu\u2019il faut pousser Zelensky \u00e0 reconna\u00eetre que l\u2019Ukraine n\u2019acc\u00e9dera pas \u00e0 l\u2019OTAN et que son arm\u00e9e ne pourra pas reprendre les territoires conquis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le pr\u00e9sident ukrainien a r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9 mercredi 20 novembre sur <em>Fox News <\/em>que l\u2019Ukraine ne pouvait pas \u00ab&#160;l\u00e9galement reconna\u00eetre une partie du territoire ukrainien comme \u00e9tant russe&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-252517' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/21\/en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-252517' title='\u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/video\/6364949479112&quot;&gt;Zelenskyy warns Ukraine will lose the war if US cuts military funding, Trey Yingst reports&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Fox News&lt;\/em&gt;, 20 novembre 2024.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span> \u2014 ce qui s\u2019applique pour les 6 oblasts partiellement occup\u00e9s par Moscou ainsi que pour la Crim\u00e9e, contr\u00f4l\u00e9e enti\u00e8rement depuis 2014.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans un entretien publi\u00e9 dans nos pages, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/19\/en-ukraine-nous-sommes-sur-un-ring-de-boxe-et-cest-le-dixieme-round-une-conversation-avec-tymofiy-mylovanov\/\">l\u2019ancien ministre de l\u2019\u00c9conomie ukrainien Tymofiy Mylovanov d\u00e9taillait<\/a>&#160;: \u00ab&#160;Il est tr\u00e8s important que tout le monde le comprenne. La Constitution de l\u2019Ukraine proclame la souverainet\u00e9 et l\u2019int\u00e9grit\u00e9 territoriale du pays et il est imp\u00e9ratif qu\u2019elle soit respect\u00e9e.&#160;\u00bb.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les dirigeants ukrainien et russe ont r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9 ces derniers jours qu\u2019ils \u00e9taient ouverts \u00e0 des n\u00e9gociations de cessez-le-feu mais qu\u2019ils s\u2019opposaient \u00e0 toute concession territoriale \u2013 pour l\u2019Ukraine, de son territoire internationalement reconnu, et pour la Russie des zones qu\u2019elle contr\u00f4le militairement. Pour penser la fin de la guerre, il faut revenir sur les raisons de l\u2019\u00e9chec des accords de Minsk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":252521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":4,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3116],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-252517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-la-guerre-en-ukraine-au-jour-le-jour","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>En Ukraine, une r\u00e9solution post-Minsk est-elle possible ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/21\/en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"En Ukraine, une r\u00e9solution post-Minsk est-elle possible ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les dirigeants ukrainien et russe ont r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9 ces derniers jours qu\u2019ils \u00e9taient ouverts \u00e0 des n\u00e9gociations de cessez-le-feu mais qu\u2019ils s\u2019opposaient \u00e0 toute concession territoriale \u2013 pour l\u2019Ukraine, de son territoire internationalement reconnu, et pour la Russie des zones qu\u2019elle contr\u00f4le militairement. Pour penser la fin de la guerre, il faut revenir sur les raisons de l\u2019\u00e9chec des accords de Minsk.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/21\/en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-21T11:21:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-21T11:21:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/11\/gc-share-resolution-post-Minsk-Ukr.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1904\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1066\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/11\/gc-share-resolution-post-Minsk-Ukr.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/21\/en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/21\/en-ukraine-une-resolution-post-minsk-est-elle-possible\/\",\"name\":\"En Ukraine, une r\u00e9solution post-Minsk est-elle possible ? 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