{"id":251103,"date":"2024-11-06T15:36:25","date_gmt":"2024-11-06T14:36:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=251103"},"modified":"2024-11-06T15:36:26","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T14:36:26","slug":"presidentielle-americaine-le-profond-gender-gap-na-pas-permis-a-harris-de-gagner-lelection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/06\/presidentielle-americaine-le-profond-gender-gap-na-pas-permis-a-harris-de-gagner-lelection\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9sidentielle am\u00e9ricaine&#160;: le profond <em>gender gap<\/em> n&rsquo;a pas permis \u00e0 Harris de gagner l\u2019\u00e9lection\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>La campagne d\u00e9mocrate avait fortement mis\u00e9 sur le <em>gender gap<\/em>, l\u2019\u00e9cart entre les pr\u00e9f\u00e9rences de vote des hommes par rapport aux femmes, pour conqu\u00e9rir les \u00c9tats clefs. La candidate n\u2019avait pas insist\u00e9 sur un message identitaire, mais plusieurs publicit\u00e9s de campagne d\u00e9mocrates avaient notamment mis en avant l\u2019importance d\u2019un vote f\u00e9minin afin de pr\u00e9server les droits reproductifs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette strat\u00e9gie r\u00e9pondait \u00e0 une tendance profonde de la structuration de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Avant l\u2019\u00e9lection, nous avions construit deux projections avec les donn\u00e9es disponibles&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-251103' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/06\/presidentielle-americaine-le-profond-gender-gap-na-pas-permis-a-harris-de-gagner-lelection\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-251103' title='Dernier sondage publi\u00e9, soit par Emerson College (septembre-novembre 2024), soit, \u00e0 d\u00e9faut par l&amp;rsquo;un des autres sondeurs indiqu\u00e9s en note. Pour les \u00c9tats \u00ab&amp;#160;s\u00fbrs&amp;#160;\u00bb o\u00f9 aucun sondage r\u00e9cent n&amp;rsquo;est disponible, on suit la tendance globale de l&amp;rsquo;\u00c9tat.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Le r\u00e9sultat \u00e9tait particuli\u00e8rement parlant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Si seules les femmes votaient, Harris aurait remport\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9lection avec 365 grands \u00e9lecteurs, contre 173 pour Trump.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/ins7n\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Si seulement les hommes votaient, Trump aurait gagn\u00e9 avec 376 voix \u2014 contre 171 pour Harris.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/srGUw\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Cet \u00e9cart n\u2019a toutefois pas permis \u00e0 Kamala Harris de prendre l\u2019avance sur Donald Trump dans les \u00c9tats clefs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selon CNN, Kamala Harris n&rsquo;est parvenue \u00e0 d\u00e9passer le score de Biden de 2020 dans aucun comt\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selon les derniers exit polls publi\u00e9s par NBC News, dans les \u00c9tats clefs, 47&#160;% des hommes et 53&#160;% des femmes sont all\u00e9s aux urnes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ces taux de participation n&rsquo;ont pas permis \u00e0 Kamala Harris de profiter du soutien des femmes, ce qui aurait pu lui permettre de conqu\u00e9rir <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/31\/presidentielle-americaine-trois-scenarios-de-victoire-pour-kamala-harris\/\">certains <em>swing states<\/em> essentiels pour sa victoire<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Le gender gap est un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne qui se situe au c\u0153ur de la polarisation de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 am\u00e9ricaine car, contrairement aux diff\u00e9rences de vote li\u00e9es \u00e0 la classe sociale, \u00e0 la localisation g\u00e9ographique, au niveau de revenu, au patrimoine ou \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9ducation, il oppose des personnes qui partagent tout sauf leur genre&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-251103' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/06\/presidentielle-americaine-le-profond-gender-gap-na-pas-permis-a-harris-de-gagner-lelection\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-251103' title='Richa Chaturvedi, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2016\/07\/28\/a-closer-look-at-the-gender-gap-in-presidential-voting\/&quot;&gt;A closer look at the gender gap in presidential voting&lt;\/a&gt;, Pew Research Center, 28 juillet 2016.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le \u00ab&#160;&#160;gender gap&#160;&#160;\u00bb \u2013 et la mobilisation de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat f\u00e9minin \u2013 devait \u00eatre un des grands atouts de Kamala Harris, deux ans apr\u00e8s l\u2019annulation de Roe v. Wade&#160;&#160;: comme le montraient nos projections, le vote f\u00e9minin lui donnait une majorit\u00e9 dans un nombre \u00e9crasant d\u2019\u00c9tats \u2014 y compris plusieurs swing states. Que s\u2019est-il pass\u00e9&#160;&#160;?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":251107,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3468],"tags":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-251103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-donnees-qui-changent-la-donne","geo-ameriques"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Pr\u00e9sidentielle am\u00e9ricaine : le profond gender gap n&#039;a pas permis \u00e0 Harris de gagner l\u2019\u00e9lection\u00a0 | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/11\/06\/presidentielle-americaine-le-profond-gender-gap-na-pas-permis-a-harris-de-gagner-lelection\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pr\u00e9sidentielle am\u00e9ricaine : le profond gender gap n&#039;a pas permis \u00e0 Harris de gagner l\u2019\u00e9lection\u00a0 | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le \u00ab&#160;gender gap&#160;\u00bb \u2013 et la mobilisation de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat f\u00e9minin \u2013 devait \u00eatre un des grands atouts de Kamala Harris, deux ans apr\u00e8s l\u2019annulation de Roe v. Wade&#160;: comme le montraient nos projections, le vote f\u00e9minin lui donnait une majorit\u00e9 dans un nombre \u00e9crasant d\u2019\u00c9tats \u2014 y compris plusieurs swing states. 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