{"id":249542,"date":"2024-10-29T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T05:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=249542"},"modified":"2024-10-28T21:35:50","modified_gmt":"2024-10-28T20:35:50","slug":"entre-trump-et-harris-la-campagne-na-jamais-ete-aussi-serree","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/29\/entre-trump-et-harris-la-campagne-na-jamais-ete-aussi-serree\/","title":{"rendered":"Entre Trump et Harris, la campagne n\u2019a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi serr\u00e9e"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Les sondages sont l\u2019alpha et l\u2019om\u00e9ga des campagnes \u00e9lectorales am\u00e9ricaines. Ils d\u00e9terminent qui est assez l\u00e9gitime pour lancer et soutenir une campagne et jouent \u00e9galement un r\u00f4le important dans leur capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 attirer des donations. Ce sont principalement ces derni\u00e8res qui financent les organisations construites autour des candidats, et donc leur capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 toucher un large public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>C\u2019est quelques ann\u00e9es apr\u00e8s qu\u2019il ait \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9dit\u00e9 d&rsquo;un quart des intentions de vote pour les primaires du Parti r\u00e9publicain de 2012 (devant Mitt Romney ou Newt Gingrich) que Trump a finalement d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de lancer sa carri\u00e8re politique \u2014 ce qu\u2019il envisageait depuis la fin des ann\u00e9es 1980&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-249542' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/29\/entre-trump-et-harris-la-campagne-na-jamais-ete-aussi-serree\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-249542' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.publicpolicypolling.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/PPP_Release_US_0414925.pdf&quot;&gt;The GOP\u2019s front-runner is\u2026Donald Trump&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;, Public Policy Polling, 14 avril 2011.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Alors qu\u2019il \u00e9tait toujours la star de son \u00e9mission de t\u00e9l\u00e9-r\u00e9alit\u00e9 <em>The Apprentice, <\/em>c\u2019est le producteur du show Mark Burnett qui a dissuad\u00e9 Trump de ne pas s\u2019engager dans une campagne&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-249542' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/29\/entre-trump-et-harris-la-campagne-na-jamais-ete-aussi-serree\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-249542' title='Ramin Setoodeh, &lt;em&gt;Apprentice in Wonderland. How Donald Trump and Mark Burnett Took America Through the Looking Glass&lt;\/em&gt;, Harper Collins, New York, 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Quelques mois auparavant, l\u2019ex-pr\u00e9sident sortait son premier livre politique, <em>Time to Get Tough<\/em>, dans lequel il critiquait s\u00e9v\u00e8rement le premier mandat de Barack Obama.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/9MP4I\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 ce stade, les sondages ne permettent pas de d\u00e9gager clairement une dynamique dans la campagne \u2014 malgr\u00e9 la l\u00e9g\u00e8re convergence des deux courbes visible au cours des derniers jours. La moyenne des intentions de vote pour Kamala Harris n\u2019est inf\u00e9rieure que de 0,8 point par rapport \u00e0 son niveau le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 atteint le 1er octobre, et Trump oscille entre 46 et 47&#160;% depuis la fin de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9. Il se trouvait au dimanche 27 octobre \u00e0 47,4&#160;%, selon l\u2019agr\u00e9gateur de l\u2019analyste \u00e9lectoral Nate Silver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Selon l\u2019historien \u00e0 Princeton David Bell, la faible qualit\u00e9 des sondages lors des deux derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections (qui avaient sous-estim\u00e9 Trump) <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/28\/elections-americaines-2024-journal-dune-resistible-ascension-l\/\">laisse \u00e9galement planer des doutes quant \u00e0 leur fiabilit\u00e9<\/a> pour ce nouveau cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/jGgdH\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Les R\u00e9publicains, galvanis\u00e9s par la hausse de la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une victoire de Trump sur les plateformes de pr\u00e9diction (la plus connue \u00e9tant Polymarket), sont confiants quant aux capacit\u00e9s de leur candidat \u00e0 l\u2019emporter dans les swing states&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-249542' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/29\/entre-trump-et-harris-la-campagne-na-jamais-ete-aussi-serree\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-249542' title='Franco Ordo\u00f1ez, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2024\/10\/26\/nx-s1-5160668\/republican-pollsters-in-key-swing-states-say-theyre-confident-of-trumps-chances&quot;&gt;Republican pollsters in key swing states say they&amp;rsquo;re confident of Trump&amp;rsquo;s chances&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;NPR&lt;\/em&gt;, 26 octobre 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dans ce qui devrait \u00eatre le dernier grand \u00e9v\u00e9nement de sa campagne, Trump a fourni avant-hier, dimanche 27, une tribune \u00e0 des dizaines de ses proches appartenant \u00e0 la constellation MAGA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On pouvait notamment y entendre l\u2019ami d\u2019enfance de Trump David Rem qualifier Kamala Harris \u00ab&#160;d\u2019ant\u00e9christ&#160;\u00bb, ou bien l\u2019animateur radio Sid Rosenberg traiter l\u2019ancienne secr\u00e9taire d\u2019\u00c9tat et ex-candidate d\u00e9mocrate \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle Hillary Clinton de \u00ab&#160;salope d\u00e9rang\u00e9e&#160;\u00bb (<em>sick son of a bitch<\/em>).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;She is the devil. She is the antichrist.&quot; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fX9NaXFOvd\">pic.twitter.com\/fX9NaXFOvd<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/atrupar\/status\/1850635392942260551?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 27, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/\">les D\u00e9mocrates ont le sentiment de perdre pied<\/a> et redoutent que de nombreux \u00e9lecteurs historiques du Parti d\u00e9mocrate (notamment les hispanos et afro-am\u00e9ricains) ne changent de camp le 5 novembre. Au-del\u00e0 des chiffres et sondages internes dont ces derniers peuvent disposer, r\u00e9side \u00e9galement un facteur culturel propre \u00e0 chaque parti&#160;: les D\u00e9mocrates, bouscul\u00e9s par les sur-performances de Trump lors des deux derniers cycles, ont plus tendance \u00e0 s\u2019inqui\u00e9ter des signaux faibles que les R\u00e9publicains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors qu\u2019il ne reste plus qu\u2019une semaine avant l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle am\u00e9ricaine, les agr\u00e9gateurs de sondages indiquent tous \u2013 \u00e0 divers degr\u00e9s \u2013 que la campagne n\u2019a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi serr\u00e9e depuis la nomination de Kamala Harris cet \u00e9t\u00e9. \u00c0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale comme dans les <em>swing states<\/em>, aucune dynamique claire en faveur d\u2019un candidat ou d\u2019un autre ne semble sur le point d\u2019\u00e9merger d\u2019ici le scrutin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":249549,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3691],"tags":[],"geo":[525],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Entre Trump et Harris, la campagne n\u2019a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi serr\u00e9e | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/29\/entre-trump-et-harris-la-campagne-na-jamais-ete-aussi-serree\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Entre Trump et 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