{"id":249130,"date":"2024-10-22T19:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T17:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=249130"},"modified":"2024-10-22T18:43:39","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T16:43:39","slug":"la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/","title":{"rendered":"La Caroline du Nord va-t-elle passer D\u00e9mocrate en novembre&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Au cours des 12 derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections (soit depuis 1976), seulement deux candidats d\u00e9mocrates ont remport\u00e9 la Caroline du Nord&#160;: Jimmy Carter et Barack Obama en 2008, ann\u00e9e \u00e0 partir de laquelle l\u2019\u00c9tat a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un <em>swing state<\/em>. Lors de la campagne de 2012, les D\u00e9mocrates avaient d\u00e9cid\u00e9 d\u2019organiser pour la premi\u00e8re fois leur convention nationale \u00e0 Charlotte, le grand centre urbain de l\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La Caroline du Nord est le principal <em>swing state <\/em>du sud-est des \u00c9tats-Unis aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de la G\u00e9orgie. Les deux \u00c9tats ont par ailleurs le m\u00eame nombre de grands \u00e9lecteurs&#160;: 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Il s\u2019agit de l\u2019un des \u00c9tats dont la croissance d\u00e9mographique a \u00e9t\u00e9 la plus forte au cours des derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies. La Caroline du Nord compte aujourd\u2019hui 10,8 millions d\u2019habitants \u2014 le double par rapport \u00e0 1970 \u2014 et 7,6 millions d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cet afflux massif a transform\u00e9 la composition d\u00e9mographique de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat&#160;: les \u00e9lecteurs natifs de l\u2019\u00c9tat comptent d\u00e9sormais pour seulement 38&#160;% du total&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-249130' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-249130' title='Nicholas Long, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/carolinademography.cpc.unc.edu\/2023\/09\/28\/who-are-north-carolinas-7-3-million-registered-voters-2023\/&quot;&gt;Who are North Carolina\u2019s 7.3 million registered voters&amp;#160;? (2023)&lt;\/a&gt;, Carolina Demography, 28 septembre 2023.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ces nouveaux arrivants s\u2019installent principalement dans les grands centres urbains de l\u2019\u00c9tat et leurs banlieues&#160;: comt\u00e9s de Brunswick et Pender autour de Wilmington, Johnston autour de Raleigh, Lincoln au nord-ouest de Charlotte\u2026<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/jk08O\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Ces mouvements de population, principalement urbains (des villes vers des villes), ne sont pas uniquement compos\u00e9s d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs lib\u00e9raux ou conservateurs mais pr\u00e9sentent une h\u00e9t\u00e9rog\u00e9n\u00e9it\u00e9 qui ne permettent pas de faire \u00e9merger de gagnant ou de perdant. La ville de Wilmington a vot\u00e9 majoritairement d\u00e9mocrate en 2020, mais le reste du comt\u00e9 de New Hanover est quant \u00e0 lui \u00e0 majorit\u00e9 r\u00e9publicaine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>C\u2019est dans les m\u00e9tropoles que les candidats d\u00e9mocrates ont r\u00e9alis\u00e9 leurs gains les plus importants en 2016 et 2020 (Raleigh et Charlotte, Greensboro et Asheville dans une moindre mesure), et c\u2019est dans ces derni\u00e8res que Harris devra augmenter ses marges afin de remporter l\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les meilleures chances pour Trump de conserver la Caroline du Nord cette ann\u00e9e r\u00e9sident quant \u00e0 elles dans l\u2019Est de l\u2019\u00c9tat (qui compte pour 29&#160;% du total des votes), compos\u00e9 d\u2019un \u00e9lectorat plus blanc, rural et ouvrier.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le candidat r\u00e9publicain peut \u00e9galement esp\u00e9rer poursuivre sa progression dans les comt\u00e9s de Randolph et Davidson, o\u00f9 il a gagn\u00e9 24 000 voix suppl\u00e9mentaires au cours des deux derni\u00e8res \u00e9lections&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-249130' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-249130' title='Kati Perry, Dan Keating et Aaron Blake, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/elections\/interactive\/2024\/2024-swing-states-trump-harris\/&quot;&gt;A guide to the 7 battleground states that could swing the election&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Washington Post&lt;\/em&gt;, 21 octobre 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/e1Pht\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>S\u2019il n\u2019y a pas eu \u2014 pour le moment \u2014 de \u00ab&#160;<a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/01\/28\/elections-americaines-2024-journal-dune-resistible-ascension-x-y-z\/\">surprise d\u2019octobre<\/a>&#160;\u00bb \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale, l\u2019ouragan Helene a n\u00e9anmoins s\u00e9v\u00e8rement touch\u00e9 la Caroline du Nord et d\u2019autres \u00c9tats du sud-est \u00e0 la fin du mois de septembre, provoquant la mort de pr\u00e8s de 100 personnes et le d\u00e9placement de dizaines de milliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cette catastrophe semble \u00eatre une aubaine pour Trump, qui a souffert dans l\u2019\u00c9tat des r\u00e9v\u00e9lations portant sur le candidat r\u00e9publicain au poste de gouverneur, Mark Robinson (actuellement lieutenant-gouverneur).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En septembre, <em>CNN <\/em>a d\u00e9voil\u00e9 que celui-ci avait revendiqu\u00e9 \u00eatre un \u00ab&#160;nazi noir&#160;\u00bb dans des messages publi\u00e9s en 2010 sur des sites pornographiques&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-249130' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-249130' title='Andrew Kaczynski et Em Steck, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/09\/19\/politics\/kfile-mark-robinson-black-nazi-pro-slavery-porn-forum&quot;&gt;\u2018I\u2019m a black NAZI&amp;#160;!\u2019&amp;#160;: NC GOP nominee for governor made dozens of disturbing comments on porn forum&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;CNN&lt;\/em&gt;, 19 septembre 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>. Trump, qui avait apport\u00e9 son soutien \u00e0 Robinson en mars, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 lundi 21 octobre qu\u2019il \u00ab&#160;ne connaissait pas bien l\u2019\u00e9tat de la campagne&#160;\u00bb en Caroline du Nord, dans un effort visant \u00e0 se d\u00e9tacher du candidat aux yeux des \u00e9lecteurs&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-249130' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-249130' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=HuXq3AmRwk4&quot;&gt;FULL SPEECH&amp;#160;: President Trump Delivers Remarks to the Press in Asheville, NC &amp;#8211; 10\/21\/24&lt;\/a&gt;, Right Side Broadcasting Network, YouTube, 21 octobre 2024.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lors de la premi\u00e8re visite de Trump \u00e0 Asheville lundi suite \u00e0 l\u2019ouragan, celui-ci a reproch\u00e9 \u00e0 Kamala Harris d\u2019\u00eatre \u00ab&#160;introuvable&#160;\u00bb alors que \u00ab&#160;la Caroline du Nord a besoin d\u2019elle&#160;\u00bb. Quelques jours plus t\u00f4t, Trump sous-entendait que l\u2019\u00c9tat f\u00e9d\u00e9ral et le gouverneur d\u00e9mocrate Roy Cooper \u00ab&#160;faisaient tout pour ne pas aider les habitants des zones r\u00e9publicaines&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-249130' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-249130' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/113227266617485932&quot;&gt;Publication de Trump sur Truth Social&lt;\/a&gt;, 30 septembre 2024.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/78tNR\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 ces tentatives, il se pourrait que les d\u00e9placements de population et la potentielle baisse du nombre de bulletins d\u00e9pos\u00e9s dans les urnes d\u2019ici le 5 novembre provoqu\u00e9s par l\u2019ouragan jouent en faveur de la candidate d\u00e9mocrate. En Caroline du Nord, ce sont les comt\u00e9s ayant majoritairement vot\u00e9 pour Trump en 2020 qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 le plus impact\u00e9s&#160;: 21&#160;% du total des bulletins de l\u2019\u00c9tat re\u00e7us par le candidat r\u00e9publicain il y a quatre ans ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9pos\u00e9s dans des comt\u00e9s touch\u00e9s par la catastrophe, contre 13&#160;% pour Joe Biden&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-249130' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-249130' title='\u00a0Philip Bump, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2024\/10\/01\/if-helene-affects-voting-trump-may-pay-price\/&quot;&gt;If Helene affects voting, Trump may pay the price&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Washington Post&lt;\/em&gt;, 1er octobre 2024.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Caroline du Nord est, aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de la G\u00e9orgie, le principal <em>swing state<\/em> du sud-est du pays et l\u2019un des \u00c9tats les plus comp\u00e9titifs \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale. Tandis que les sondages d\u2019intentions de vote ne permettent pas de d\u00e9gager de favori pour le scrutin du 5 novembre, les r\u00e9cents changements d\u00e9mographiques de l\u2019\u00c9tat ainsi que les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts provoqu\u00e9s par l\u2019ouragan Helene permettent de faire \u00e9merger des tendances.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":249133,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3691],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-249130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-trump-contre-biden-pour-la-maison-blanche-suivre-les-elections-americaines-2024","geo-ameriques"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>La Caroline du Nord va-t-elle passer D\u00e9mocrate en novembre ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La Caroline du Nord va-t-elle passer D\u00e9mocrate en novembre ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La Caroline du Nord est, aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de la G\u00e9orgie, le principal swing state du sud-est du pays et l\u2019un des \u00c9tats les plus comp\u00e9titifs \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale. Tandis que les sondages d\u2019intentions de vote ne permettent pas de d\u00e9gager de favori pour le scrutin du 5 novembre, les r\u00e9cents changements d\u00e9mographiques de l\u2019\u00c9tat ainsi que les d\u00e9g\u00e2ts provoqu\u00e9s par l\u2019ouragan Helene permettent de faire \u00e9merger des tendances.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-22T17:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/gc-share-presidentielle-caroline-du-nord.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1754\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"980\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/gc-share-presidentielle-caroline-du-nord.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/22\/la-caroline-du-nord-va-t-elle-passer-democrate-en-novembre\/\",\"name\":\"La Caroline du Nord va-t-elle passer D\u00e9mocrate en novembre ? 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