{"id":248503,"date":"2024-10-16T19:21:29","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T17:21:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=248503"},"modified":"2024-10-16T19:24:39","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T17:24:39","slug":"kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/","title":{"rendered":"Kamala Harris est-elle en train de perdre la campagne&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>La campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle am\u00e9ricaine est, depuis l\u2019abandon de Joe Biden et la nomination de Kamala Harris \u00e0 la t\u00eate du ticket d\u00e9mocrate, sans aucun doute l\u2019une des plus serr\u00e9es de l\u2019histoire r\u00e9cente. L\u2019\u00e9cart national en mati\u00e8re d\u2019intentions de vote n\u2019a jamais d\u00e9pass\u00e9 4 points de pourcentage entre les deux candidats et la courte avance de Harris tout comme le l\u00e9ger retard de Trump se situent tous deux dans la marge d\u2019erreur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/9MP4I\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Malgr\u00e9 le calme apparent qui s&rsquo;est install\u00e9 dans la campagne depuis le d\u00e9bat pr\u00e9sidentiel de septembre, le camp d\u00e9mocrate semble pris d\u2019un vent de panique concernant le soutien de certains blocs d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Il y a quelques semaines, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/\">nous soulignons que le soutien des hispano-am\u00e9ricains \u00e0 Harris se trouvait \u00e0 un niveau historiquement faible<\/a>&#160;: 54&#160;% dans une enqu\u00eate NBC News\/Telemundo\/CNBC du 23 septembre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les donn\u00e9es des sondages \u00e0 la sortie des urnes de ces 50 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es indiquent que, lorsque le candidat d\u00e9mocrate \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle re\u00e7oit moins de 64&#160;% du vote hispanique, celui-ci perd g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement l\u2019\u00e9lection.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Des sondages r\u00e9cents ont indiqu\u00e9 que Harris pourrait \u00e9galement perdre le soutien d\u2019une partie significative de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat afro-am\u00e9ricain. Dans le dernier sondage New York Times\/Siena College du 13 octobre, 70&#160;% des hommes noirs d\u00e9claraient leur intention de voter pour la candidate d\u00e9mocrate le 5 novembre<span id='easy-footnote-1-248503' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-248503' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/10\/13\/us\/elections\/times-siena-poll-hispanic-likely-electorate.html&quot;&gt;Cross-Tabs&amp;#160;: October 2024 Times\/Siena Poll of the Hispanic Likely Electorate&lt;\/a&gt;, 13 octobre 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/caqXx\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Bien que toujours substantiel, ce chiffre est largement inf\u00e9rieur aux 85&#160;% ayant d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019ils voteraient pour Joe Biden en 2020<span id='easy-footnote-2-248503' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-248503' title='Maya King, Jonathan Weisman et Ruth Igielnik, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/12\/us\/politics\/poll-black-voters-harris-trump.html&quot;&gt;Black Voters Drift From Democrats, Imperiling Harris\u2019s Bid, Poll Shows&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The New York Times&lt;\/em&gt;, 12 octobre 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span>. En r\u00e9action, la campagne de Kamala Harris a annonc\u00e9 lundi 14 octobre lancer \u00ab&#160;un plan visant \u00e0 donner aux hommes noirs davantage d&rsquo;opportunit\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques et d&rsquo;autres chances de s&rsquo;\u00e9panouir&#160;\u00bb<span id='easy-footnote-3-248503' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-248503' title='Will Weissert, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/harris-black-men-empowerment-voter-policy-proposals-67ac83899af785cf4d8788b9fcdeb592&quot;&gt;Harris announces a new plan to empower Black men as she tries to energize them to vote for her&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Associated Press&lt;\/em&gt;, 15 octobre 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span>. Parmi les propositions figurent notamment des pr\u00eats-subventions destin\u00e9s aux entrepreneurs afro-am\u00e9ricains, des programmes de mentorat cibl\u00e9s ou bien une l\u00e9galisation du cannabis \u00e0 usage r\u00e9cr\u00e9atif<span id='easy-footnote-4-248503' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-248503' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/x.com\/KamalaHarris\/status\/1845993766441644386&quot;&gt;Publication sur X (Twitter) de Kamala Harris&lt;\/a&gt;, 15 octobre 2024.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/jGgdH\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Une prise de recul avec ce sondage isol\u00e9 offre n\u00e9anmoins une image moins alarmante que celle ayant conduit \u00e0 creuser l\u2019\u00e9cart \u2014 d\u00e9j\u00e0 existant \u2014 en faveur de Trump dans les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Le Parti d\u00e9mocrate a su fid\u00e9liser le vote d\u2019une grande majorit\u00e9 d\u2019afro-am\u00e9ricains suite \u00e0 la crise des ann\u00e9es 1930 et le New Deal, puis avec les r\u00e9formes mises en place dans les ann\u00e9es 1960 (Civil Rights Act de 1964, Fair Housing Act de 1968 notamment).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On observe \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard un glissement progressif \u2014 surtout visible au cours des deux pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents cycles \u2014 qui est en partie g\u00e9n\u00e9rationnel. Celui-ci conduit \u00e0 une \u00e9rosion du soutien \u00ab&#160;historique&#160;\u00bb des afro-am\u00e9ricains pour les candidats d\u00e9mocrates, particuli\u00e8rement chez les jeunes \u00e9lecteurs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La personnalit\u00e9 de Trump joue elle aussi dans cette \u00e9quation&#160;: le candidat r\u00e9publicain a su \u00eatre attrayant aupr\u00e8s de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat non-blanc (afro-am\u00e9ricains mais \u00e9galement hispano-am\u00e9ricains), principalement en raison de sa notori\u00e9t\u00e9 en mati\u00e8re de gestion de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les afro et hispano-am\u00e9ricains \u00e9tant notamment plus impact\u00e9s par l\u2019inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/F9OeL\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Plusieurs experts \u00e9lectoraux consid\u00e8rent que ce \u00ab&#160;vent de panique&#160;\u00bb ressenti par les D\u00e9mocrates est, pour le moment, excessif<span id='easy-footnote-5-248503' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-248503' title='Brendan Rascius, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.miamiherald.com\/news\/nation-world\/national\/article294012924.html&quot;&gt;Is Kamala Harris losing support of Black men&amp;#160;? Experts weigh in on concerns after poll&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Miami Herald&lt;\/em&gt;, 16 octobre 2024.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span>. Des enqu\u00eates r\u00e9alis\u00e9es au cours de la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode indiquent par ailleurs que Harris est susceptible de recevoir le m\u00eame soutien de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat afro-am\u00e9ricain que Joe Biden en 2020<span id='easy-footnote-6-248503' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-248503' title='Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus et Jennifer De Pinto, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/trump-harris-poll-how-information-beliefs-shape-tight-2024-campaign\/&quot;&gt;CBS News Trump-Harris poll shows one election, two worlds&amp;#160;: How information, beliefs shape tight campaign&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;CBS News&lt;\/em&gt;, 14 octobre 2024.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/j5BWc\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Il existe enfin un \u00e9l\u00e9ment d\u2019explication li\u00e9 \u00e0 la \u00ab&#160;culture&#160;\u00bb de chaque parti&#160;: les D\u00e9mocrates, bouscul\u00e9s par les sur-performances de Trump lors des deux derniers cycles, ont plus tendance \u00e0 s\u2019inqui\u00e9ter de ces signaux faibles<span id='easy-footnote-7-248503' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-7-248503' title='Kyle Kondik, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/three-weeks-to-go-has-anybody-seen-our-crystal-ball-anywhere\/&quot;&gt;Three Weeks to Go&amp;#160;: Has Anybody Seen Our Crystal Ball Anywhere&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;, The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, 15 octobre 2024.'><sup>7<\/sup><\/a><\/span>. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, le GOP \u2014 et surtout Donald Trump \u2014 refuse d\u2019\u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un <em>underdog <\/em>et proclame fr\u00e9quemment avoir d\u00e9j\u00e0 gagn\u00e9 le scrutin<span id='easy-footnote-8-248503' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/#easy-footnote-bottom-8-248503' title='Michael Scherer, Josh Dawsey et Tyler Pager, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2024\/10\/12\/harris-trump-strategy-tied\/&quot;&gt;Harris and Trump take divergent paths in a tied race&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;The Washington Post&lt;\/em&gt;, 12 octobre 2024.'><sup>8<\/sup><\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Un vent de panique parcourt actuellement le Parti d\u00e9mocrate, qui craint de perdre le soutien d\u2019une partie de son \u00e9lectorat historique, particuli\u00e8rement les hommes afro-am\u00e9ricains, lors du scrutin du 5 novembre. \u00c0 y regarder de plus pr\u00e8s, et alors que les intentions de vote stagnent pour les deux candidats depuis fin juillet, peu d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments tangibles permettent \u2013 pour le moment \u2013 de soutenir que Kamala Harris est effectivement en train de perdre pied.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":248509,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3691],"tags":[],"geo":[525],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Kamala Harris est-elle en train de perdre la campagne ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kamala Harris est-elle en train de perdre la campagne ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Un vent de panique parcourt actuellement le Parti d\u00e9mocrate, qui craint de perdre le soutien d\u2019une partie de son \u00e9lectorat historique, particuli\u00e8rement les hommes afro-am\u00e9ricains, lors du scrutin du 5 novembre. \u00c0 y regarder de plus pr\u00e8s, et alors que les intentions de vote stagnent pour les deux candidats depuis fin juillet, peu d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments tangibles permettent \u2013 pour le moment \u2013 de soutenir que Kamala Harris est effectivement en train de perdre pied.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-16T17:21:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-16T17:24:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/gc-share-harris-electorat-noir.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1906\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1070\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/gc-share-harris-electorat-noir.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/16\/kamala-harris-est-elle-en-train-de-perdre-la-campagne\/\",\"name\":\"Kamala Harris est-elle en train de perdre la campagne ? 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