{"id":247139,"date":"2024-10-01T13:00:18","date_gmt":"2024-10-01T11:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=247139"},"modified":"2024-10-01T13:03:11","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T11:03:11","slug":"le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/","title":{"rendered":"Le vote des hispano-am\u00e9ricains pourrait co\u00fbter l\u2019\u00e9lection \u00e0 Kamala Harris"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Il s\u2019agit de l\u2019une des \u00e9volutions les plus significatives de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat am\u00e9ricain&#160;: en seulement deux cycles, depuis la premi\u00e8re campagne de Donald Trump, les intentions de vote des hispano-am\u00e9ricains pour le candidat r\u00e9publicain ont plus que doubl\u00e9. Dans le m\u00eame temps, il a baiss\u00e9 de 15 points en faveur des D\u00e9mocrates, r\u00e9duisant plus que jamais l\u2019\u00e9cart entre les deux partis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Moins d\u2019un \u00e9lecteur hispanique sur cinq (19&#160;%) d\u00e9clarait voter pour Donald Trump en amont de l\u2019\u00e9lection de 2016. Ce chiffre est pass\u00e9 \u00e0 27&#160;% quatre ans plus tard.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cette tendance devrait se poursuivre voire s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer cette ann\u00e9e. Dans une enqu\u00eate NBC News\/Telemundo\/CNBC r\u00e9alis\u00e9e entre le 17 et le 23 septembre, les \u00e9lecteurs hispano-am\u00e9ricains sont 54&#160;% \u00e0 soutenir Kamala Harris, et 40&#160;% Trump&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-247139' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-247139' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.documentcloud.org\/documents\/25177909-nbc-news-telemundo-cnbc-latino-voter-poll-topline-results-september-17-23-2024&quot;&gt;NBC News-Telemundo-CNBC Latino Voter Poll Topline Results (September 17-23, 2024)&lt;\/a&gt;.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Avec 36,2 millions d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs estim\u00e9 pour ce cycle, les hispano-am\u00e9ricains constituent pour la premi\u00e8re fois un groupe plus important que les afro-am\u00e9ricains (34,45 millions) \u2014 deuxi\u00e8me derri\u00e8re les \u00e9lecteurs blancs&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-247139' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-247139' title='Jens Manuel Krogstad, Jeffrey S. Passel, Abby Budiman et Anusha Natarajan, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2024\/01\/10\/key-facts-about-hispanic-eligible-voters-in-2024\/&quot;&gt;Key facts about Hispanic eligible voters in 2024&lt;\/a&gt;, Pew Research Center, 10 janvier 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/GKLGe\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Au-del\u00e0 du potentiel \u00e9clatement \u00e0 moyen et long terme de la coalition ayant contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 porter au pouvoir les pr\u00e9sidents d\u00e9mocrates ces derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies, ces chiffres sugg\u00e8rent que le vote hispano-am\u00e9ricain pourrait co\u00fbter l\u2019\u00e9lection \u00e0 Kamala Harris. Les donn\u00e9es des sondages \u00e0 la sortie des urnes de ces 50 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es indiquent que, lorsque le candidat d\u00e9mocrate \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle re\u00e7oit moins de 64&#160;% du vote hispanique, il perd g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement l\u2019\u00e9lection&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-247139' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-247139' title='Sommer Brugal et Russell Contreras, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.axios.com\/local\/miami\/2024\/08\/13\/harris-lags-with-latinos-miami-democrats&quot;&gt;Local Democrats focus on Latino voters as Harris lags&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Axios&lt;\/em&gt;, 13 ao\u00fbt 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/F9OeL\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Le facteur \u00e9conomique est principalement \u00e0 l\u2019origine de ce glissement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les trois-quarts des \u00e9lecteurs hispaniques consid\u00e8rent que le renforcement de l\u2019\u00e9conomie devrait \u00eatre la priorit\u00e9 du prochain Congr\u00e8s et de la prochaine administration \u2014 un chiffre similaire pour les autres groupes&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-4-247139' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-247139' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/politics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2024\/02\/PP_2024.02.29_policy-priorities_report.pdf&quot;&gt;Americans\u2019 Top Policy Priority for 2024&amp;#160;: Strengthening the Economy&lt;\/a&gt;, Pew Research Center, 29 f\u00e9vrier 2024.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les m\u00e9nages hispaniques ont \u00e9t\u00e9 touch\u00e9s de mani\u00e8re disproportionn\u00e9e par l\u2019inflation de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 2021&#160;: en moyenne, celle-ci \u00e9tait de 1,5 point sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la moyenne nationale en juin&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-5-247139' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/#easy-footnote-bottom-5-247139' title='Rajashri Chakrabarti, Dan Garcia et Maxim Pinkovskiy, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org\/2023\/01\/inflation-disparities-by-race-and-income-narrow\/&quot;&gt;Inflation Disparities by Race and Income Narrow, Federal Reserve Bank of New York&lt;\/a&gt;, 18 janvier 2023.'><sup>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Cette diff\u00e9rence s\u2019explique par la mont\u00e9e en fl\u00e8che de l\u2019inflation li\u00e9e aux transports durant cette p\u00e9riode. Les hispaniques consacrent une part plus importante de leurs revenus au carburant et aux transports en commun, notamment en raison de leur concentration croissante dans le Sud et le Sud-Ouest du pays&nbsp; \u2014 et de mani\u00e8re g\u00e9n\u00e9rale dans des zones rurales excentr\u00e9es n\u00e9cessitant de parcourir de plus grandes distances entre leurs r\u00e9sidences et lieux de travail&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-6-247139' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/#easy-footnote-bottom-6-247139' title='Aimee Bell-Pasht, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.aceee.org\/sites\/default\/files\/pdfs\/combined_energy_burdens_-_estimating_total_home_and_transportation_energy_burdens.pdf&quot;&gt;Combined Energy Burdens&amp;#160;: Estimating Total Home and Transportation Energy Burdens&lt;\/a&gt;, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), mai 2024.'><sup>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/lZ9oM\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019\u00e9largissement du socle \u00e9lectoral r\u00e9publicain aux \u00e9lecteurs hispano-am\u00e9ricains s\u2019inscrit dans une tendance plus large d\u2019\u00e9clatement des blocs \u00ab&#160;raciaux&#160;\u00bb aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En 2016, lors de sa premi\u00e8re \u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle, Trump a mieux perform\u00e9 que Mitt Romney chez les hispaniques, afro-am\u00e9ricains et \u00e9lecteurs asiatiques que 4 ans auparavant. Dans le m\u00eame temps, l\u2019\u00e9cart du vote blanc entre d\u00e9mocrate et r\u00e9publicain s\u2019est r\u00e9duit, passant de +21 points en 2016 en faveur de Trump \u00e0 +17 en 2020.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ce \u00ab&#160;r\u00e9alignement&#160;\u00bb traduit la recomposition de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat am\u00e9ricain qui s\u2019op\u00e8re depuis les ann\u00e9es Reagan. La part des blancs est pass\u00e9e de 84&#160;% des \u00e9lecteurs en 1980 \u00e0 66&#160;% en 2020. Dans le m\u00eame temps, la part de non-dipl\u00f4m\u00e9s a elle aussi substantiellement diminu\u00e9, s\u2019\u00e9tablissant \u00e0 63&#160;% en 2020 contre 84&#160;% quarante ans plus t\u00f4t&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-7-247139' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/#easy-footnote-bottom-7-247139' title='Alan I. Abramowitz, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/the-transformation-of-the-american-electorate\/&quot;&gt;The Transformation of the American Electorate&lt;\/a&gt;, Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, 23 mars 2023.'><sup>7<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Les clivages partisans \u00ab&#160;raciaux&#160;\u00bb, plus clairement d\u00e9finis \u00e0 la fin du XXe si\u00e8cle et au d\u00e9but du XXIe, semblent \u00e9voluer vers un r\u00e9alignement marqu\u00e9 par les questions \u00e9conomiques. Les \u00e9lecteurs de la classe ouvri\u00e8re et moyenne, quelle que soit leur appartenance ethnique, ont plus tendance \u00e0 voter r\u00e9publicain tandis que les candidats d\u00e9mocrates attirent plus les \u00e9lecteurs ayant fait des \u00e9tudes sup\u00e9rieures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/EYh1d\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour ce cycle, la perte d\u2019une partie de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat hispanique menace particuli\u00e8rement les chances de Harris en Arizona et dans le Nevada (dont plus d\u2019un cinqui\u00e8me des \u00e9lecteurs sont latino), dans la <em>Sun Belt<\/em>, tous deux remport\u00e9s par Biden avec une faible marge en 2020.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les donn\u00e9es historiques indiquent que, lorsqu\u2019un candidat d\u00e9mocrate \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle remporte moins de 64&#160;&#160;% du vote hispanique, il perd g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement l\u2019\u00e9lection. Dans les derni\u00e8res enqu\u00eates, Kamala Harris est cr\u00e9dit\u00e9e d\u2019environ 54&#160;&#160;% de ce vote. La reconfiguration de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat en cours aux \u00c9tats-Unis s\u2019inscrit dans une dynamique plus large de r\u00e9alignement des \u00e9lecteurs autour de questions \u00e9conomiques.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":247143,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3691],"tags":[],"geo":[525],"class_list":["post-247139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-trump-contre-biden-pour-la-maison-blanche-suivre-les-elections-americaines-2024","geo-ameriques"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Le vote des hispano-am\u00e9ricains pourrait co\u00fbter l\u2019\u00e9lection \u00e0 Kamala Harris | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le vote des hispano-am\u00e9ricains pourrait co\u00fbter l\u2019\u00e9lection \u00e0 Kamala Harris | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les donn\u00e9es historiques indiquent que, lorsqu\u2019un candidat d\u00e9mocrate \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle remporte moins de 64&#160;% du vote hispanique, il perd g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement l\u2019\u00e9lection. Dans les derni\u00e8res enqu\u00eates, Kamala Harris est cr\u00e9dit\u00e9e d\u2019environ 54&#160;% de ce vote. La reconfiguration de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat en cours aux \u00c9tats-Unis s\u2019inscrit dans une dynamique plus large de r\u00e9alignement des \u00e9lecteurs autour de questions \u00e9conomiques.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-01T11:00:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-01T11:03:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/gc-share-vote-hispanique-harris.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1904\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1072\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" 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l\u2019\u00e9lection \u00e0 Kamala Harris | Le Grand Continent","og_description":"Les donn\u00e9es historiques indiquent que, lorsqu\u2019un candidat d\u00e9mocrate \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle remporte moins de 64&#160;% du vote hispanique, il perd g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement l\u2019\u00e9lection. Dans les derni\u00e8res enqu\u00eates, Kamala Harris est cr\u00e9dit\u00e9e d\u2019environ 54&#160;% de ce vote. La reconfiguration de l\u2019\u00e9lectorat en cours aux \u00c9tats-Unis s\u2019inscrit dans une dynamique plus large de r\u00e9alignement des \u00e9lecteurs autour de questions \u00e9conomiques.","og_url":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/","og_site_name":"Le Grand Continent","article_published_time":"2024-10-01T11:00:18+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-10-01T11:03:11+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1904,"height":1072,"url":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/gc-share-vote-hispanique-harris.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Marin Saillofest","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_image":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/gc-share-vote-hispanique-harris.jpg","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"Marin Saillofest","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/","url":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/10\/01\/le-vote-des-hispano-americains-pourrait-couter-lelection-a-kamala-harris\/","name":"Le vote des hispano-am\u00e9ricains pourrait co\u00fbter l\u2019\u00e9lection \u00e0 Kamala Harris | Le Grand 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