{"id":246600,"date":"2024-09-25T12:47:47","date_gmt":"2024-09-25T10:47:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=246600"},"modified":"2024-09-25T18:59:42","modified_gmt":"2024-09-25T16:59:42","slug":"comment-finissent-les-guerres","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/25\/comment-finissent-les-guerres\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine, Gaza, Soudan&#160;: comment finissent les guerres&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Selon les donn\u00e9es compil\u00e9es par l\u2019Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), moins de la moiti\u00e9 (46&#160;%) des 63 conflits pris en compte ayant eu lieu au cours de la p\u00e9riode 1946-2005 se sont sold\u00e9s par un cessez-le-feu ou un accord de paix&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-1-246600' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/25\/comment-finissent-les-guerres\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-246600' title='Tim Sweijs et Mattia Bertolini, &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/hcss.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/How-Wars-End-HCSS-2022.pdf&quot;&gt;Every war must end&amp;#160;: insights on war termination&lt;\/a&gt;, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, mai 2022.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les victoires et d\u00e9faites clairement \u00e9tablies suite \u00e0 un conflit inter\u00e9tatique sont un fait relativement rare dans l\u2019histoire r\u00e9cente.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Seulement un conflit sur cinq (21&#160;%) d\u00e9bouche sur un sc\u00e9nario de gagnant\/perdant, tandis qu\u2019un tiers (33&#160;%) se solde par une situation floue dans laquelle aucun accord de paix ou victoire claire n\u2019\u00e9merge.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/oq8BK\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Ces chiffres illustrent la complexit\u00e9 caract\u00e9ristique de la r\u00e9solution des conflits modernes. Des personnes au fait des discussions en cours sur le r\u00e8glement de la guerre en Ukraine \u00e9voquent la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une fin de guerre qui ressemblerait \u00e0 la fin de la Guerre de Cor\u00e9e&#160;: Kiev ne reconna\u00eetrait jamais les territoires occup\u00e9s comme russes, et laisserait ouverte la possibilit\u00e9 qu&rsquo;ils reviennent sous son contr\u00f4le \u00e0 l&rsquo;avenir (vraisemblablement dans une Russie post-Poutine).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/BhVgp\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Le pr\u00e9sident ukrainien a insist\u00e9 la semaine derni\u00e8re sur la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de parvenir \u00e0 un r\u00e8glement et d\u2019\u00e9viter un \u00ab&#160;gel de la guerre ou d&rsquo;autres manipulations qui ne feront que d\u00e9placer l&rsquo;agression russe vers une autre \u00e9tape&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-2-246600' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/25\/comment-finissent-les-guerres\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-246600' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/t.me\/V_Zelenskiy_official\/11733&quot;&gt;Publication Telegram de Volodymyr Zelensky&lt;\/a&gt;, 18 septembre 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pour garantir le respect d\u2019un potentiel cessez-le-feu par Moscou, Zelensky devrait r\u00e9it\u00e9rer dans son \u00ab&#160;plan de victoire&#160;\u00bb ses demandes de garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u2014 et notamment une invitation formelle \u00e0 rejoindre l\u2019OTAN.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Il s\u2019agirait de la seule mani\u00e8re de rendre politiquement acceptable, apr\u00e8s l\u2019agression \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle de la Russie, la fin des combats.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Jeudi 12 septembre, <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/13\/vance-devoile-le-plan-de-trump-pour-lukraine\/\">J.D. Vance d\u00e9voilait le plan de Trump pour \u00ab&#160;mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre en 24 heures&#160;\u00bb<\/a>&#160;: \u00e9tablissement d\u2019une \u00ab&#160;zone d\u00e9militaris\u00e9e&#160;\u00bb sur la ligne de front actuelle, reconnaissance de facto de pr\u00e8s d\u2019un cinqui\u00e8me du territoire ukrainien comme russe et \u00ab&#160;garantie de neutralit\u00e9 de l\u2019Ukraine&#160;\u00bb \u2014 soit la non-accession de Kiev \u00e0 l\u2019OTAN.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/pmBUa\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Face \u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/24\/larmee-ukrainienne-risque-t-elle-de-se-faire-encercler-autour-de-pokrovsk\/\">une avanc\u00e9e russe in\u00e9vitable dans le sud et l\u2019est de l\u2019Ukraine<\/a> et \u00e0 la perspective d\u2019une r\u00e9\u00e9lection de Donald Trump, Zelensky devrait pr\u00e9senter jeudi 26 septembre son \u00ab&#160;plan de victoire&#160;\u00bb \u00e0 Joe Biden et Kamala Harris. Celui-ci serait structur\u00e9 en 4 points&#160;: de nouvelles garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9&#160;; un soutien \u00e0 l&rsquo;op\u00e9ration en cours \u00e0 Koursk&#160;; l&rsquo;envoi d\u2019armes avanc\u00e9es \u00ab&#160;sp\u00e9cifiques&#160;\u00bb&#160;; le d\u00e9veloppement conjoint de l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie ukrainienne avec ses partenaires. Dans un entretien avec <em>ABC<\/em> publi\u00e9 mardi 24 septembre, le pr\u00e9sident ukrainien d\u00e9clarait&#160;: \u00ab&#160;je pense que nous sommes plus proches de la paix que nous ne le pensons&#160;\u00bb&nbsp;<span class='whitespace-nowrap'><span id='easy-footnote-3-246600' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote note-digits-1'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/25\/comment-finissent-les-guerres\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-246600' title='Meredith Deliso, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/exclusive-zelenskyy-ukraines-war-russia-closer-end-appeals\/story?id=113936136&quot;&gt;Zelenskyy says Ukraine&amp;rsquo;s war with Russia is &amp;lsquo;closer to the end&amp;rsquo; as he appeals for more help&amp;#160;: GMA exclusive&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;ABC News&lt;\/em&gt;, 24 septembre 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Volodymyr Zelensky est \u00e0 New York o\u00f9 il prononcera aujourd\u2019hui, mercredi 25 septembre, un discours aux Nations unies avant de pr\u00e9senter son \u00ab&#160;plan de victoire&#160;\u00bb \u00e0 Joe Biden et Kamala Harris le lendemain. Alors que le pr\u00e9sident ukrainien \u00e9voque de plus en plus la perspective d\u2019une fin des combats, les donn\u00e9es de l\u2019universit\u00e9 d&rsquo;Uppsala indiquent que seulement 16&#160;% des conflits de la seconde partie du XXe si\u00e8cle se sont sold\u00e9s par un accord de paix.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":246606,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":1,"_lgc_tts_voice":"","_lgc_tts_publish":false,"_lgc_tts_history_item_id":"","_lgc_tts_generated_at":"","_lgc_tts_status":"","_lgc_tts_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2345],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[2163],"class_list":["post-246600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-securite","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-monde"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":246606,"excerpt":"Volodymyr Zelensky est \u00e0 New York o\u00f9 il prononcera aujourd\u2019hui, mercredi 25 septembre, un discours aux Nations unies avant de pr\u00e9senter son \u00abplan de victoire\u00bb \u00e0 Joe Biden et Kamala Harris le lendemain. Alors que le pr\u00e9sident ukrainien \u00e9voque de plus en plus la perspective d\u2019une fin des combats, les donn\u00e9es de l\u2019universit\u00e9 d'Uppsala indiquent que seulement 16 % des conflits de la seconde partie du XXe si\u00e8cle se sont sold\u00e9s par un accord de paix.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine, Gaza, Soudan : comment finissent les guerres ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/25\/comment-finissent-les-guerres\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine, Gaza, Soudan : comment finissent les guerres ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Volodymyr Zelensky est \u00e0 New York o\u00f9 il prononcera aujourd\u2019hui, mercredi 25 septembre, un discours aux Nations unies avant de pr\u00e9senter son \u00ab&#160;plan de victoire&#160;\u00bb \u00e0 Joe Biden et Kamala Harris le lendemain. Alors que le pr\u00e9sident ukrainien \u00e9voque de plus en plus la perspective d\u2019une fin des combats, les donn\u00e9es de l\u2019universit\u00e9 d&#039;Uppsala indiquent que seulement 16&#160;% des conflits de la seconde partie du XXe si\u00e8cle se sont sold\u00e9s par un accord de paix.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/25\/comment-finissent-les-guerres\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-09-25T10:47:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-09-25T16:59:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/gc-share-fin-des-guerres.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1902\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1060\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/09\/gc-share-fin-des-guerres.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/25\/comment-finissent-les-guerres\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/09\/25\/comment-finissent-les-guerres\/\",\"name\":\"Ukraine, Gaza, Soudan : comment finissent les guerres ? 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