{"id":243226,"date":"2024-08-23T21:19:12","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T19:19:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=243226"},"modified":"2024-08-23T21:42:29","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T19:42:29","slug":"harris-ou-trump-a-qui-beneficiera-la-suspension-de-la-campagne-de-robert-f-kennedy-jr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/23\/harris-ou-trump-a-qui-beneficiera-la-suspension-de-la-campagne-de-robert-f-kennedy-jr\/","title":{"rendered":"Harris ou Trump&#160;: \u00e0 qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiera la \u00ab&#160;suspension&#160;\u00bb de la campagne de Robert F. Kennedy Jr.&#160;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 vendredi 23 ao\u00fbt, lors d\u2019une conf\u00e9rence de presse, \u00ab&#160;suspendre&#160;\u00bb sa campagne. Son nom restera sur les bulletins de vote dans \u00ab&#160;la plupart des \u00c9tats&#160;\u00bb mais sera retir\u00e9 des bulletins dans les <em>swing states <\/em>afin de favoriser Donald Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans le sillage de la faible popularit\u00e9 de la campagne de Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 d\u2019un important soutien pour un candidat ind\u00e9pendant. La dynamique a n\u00e9anmoins commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 se briser suite au d\u00e9sistement de Biden et \u00e0 son remplacement par Kamala Harris \u00e0 la t\u00eate du ticket d\u00e9mocrate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/pcE79\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>En moins d\u2019un mois, les intentions de vote en faveur de RFK ont \u00e9t\u00e9 divis\u00e9es par 3, passant d\u2019environ 15&#160;% d\u00e9but juillet \u00e0 5&#160;% au d\u00e9but du mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>RFK a approch\u00e9 les campagnes d\u00e9mocrate et r\u00e9publicaine au cours de l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9, sondant les candidats des deux principaux partis quant \u00e0 un d\u00e9sistement en \u00e9change d\u2019un poste au sein de la prochaine administration<span id='easy-footnote-1-243226' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/23\/harris-ou-trump-a-qui-beneficiera-la-suspension-de-la-campagne-de-robert-f-kennedy-jr\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-243226' title='Aaron Pellish et Jim Acosta, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/08\/14\/politics\/rfk-jr-harris-administration-role\/index.html&quot;&gt;RFK Jr. reached out to Harris campaign about administration role in exchange for endorsement&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;CNN&lt;\/em&gt;, 14 ao\u00fbt 2024.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Face au refus de l\u2019\u00e9quipe de la candidate d\u00e9mocrate et \u00e0 une campagne en perte de vitesse \u00e0 deux mois du scrutin, RFK a acc\u00e9d\u00e9 au lobbying r\u00e9publicain men\u00e9 par Tucker Carlson et Donald Trump Jr.<span id='easy-footnote-2-243226' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/23\/harris-ou-trump-a-qui-beneficiera-la-suspension-de-la-campagne-de-robert-f-kennedy-jr\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-243226' title='By Garrett Haake, Henry J. Gomez, Dasha Burns, Vaughn Hillyard et Katherine Koretski, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2024-election\/tucker-carlson-donald-trump-jr-lobbied-rfk-jr-drop-endorse-trump-rcna167665&quot;&gt;Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. lobbied RFK Jr. to drop out and endorse Trump&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;NBC News&lt;\/em&gt;, 22 ao\u00fbt 2024.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>En raison de moyens, de r\u00e9seau et d\u2019infrastructures insuffisants ainsi que de la difficult\u00e9 de figurer sur les bulletins de vote de tous les \u00c9tats, les candidats-tiers font g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement office de \u00ab&#160;<em>spoilers<\/em>&#160;\u00bb lors des \u00e9lections g\u00e9n\u00e9rales. Si leurs chances de remporter le scrutin sont quasi-nulles, leur candidature affecte significativement le r\u00e9sultat de l\u2019\u00e9lection en ce qu\u2019elle nuit plus \u00e0 un candidat qu\u2019\u00e0 un autre en attirant une partie de son \u00e9lectorat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/6dzVR\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La principale inconnue qui pourrait s\u2019av\u00e9rer d\u00e9terminante pour l\u2019\u00e9lection<em> <\/em>est l\u2019impact qu\u2019aura la suspension de la candidature de RFK sur les intentions de vote en faveur de Trump et Harris.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>RFK a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 soutenir Trump lors de sa prise de parole du vendredi 23 ao\u00fbt 2024, apr\u00e8s que sa campagne l&rsquo;ait d\u00e9menti quelques minutes apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but du discours<span id='easy-footnote-3-243226' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/23\/harris-ou-trump-a-qui-beneficiera-la-suspension-de-la-campagne-de-robert-f-kennedy-jr\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-243226' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/elections\/2024\/08\/23\/harris-trump-rfk-jr-election-updates\/#author-box&quot;&gt;RFK Jr. suspends campaign, throws support to Trump&lt;\/a&gt;, &lt;em&gt;The Washington Post&lt;\/em&gt;, 23 ao\u00fbt 2024.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les moyennes comparant les sondages testant le scrutin pr\u00e9sidentiel avec et sans Kennedy sugg\u00e8rent qu\u2019en raison de la porosit\u00e9 de leurs \u00e9lectorats (RFK \u00e9tait, \u00e0 bien des \u00e9gards, un candidat anti-syst\u00e8me de nature assez trumpiste), Trump b\u00e9n\u00e9ficierait plus de la suspension de sa campagne que Harris.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Selon le mod\u00e8le d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 par Nate Silver, la suspension de la campagne de RFK devrait octroyer entre 0,4 et 0,6 point d\u2019intention de vote suppl\u00e9mentaire pour Donald Trump. Une faible part des soutiens d\u00e9clar\u00e9s de Kennedy devraient \u00e9galement se tourner vers les autres candidats ind\u00e9pendants toujours en lice (Jill Stein, Cornel West, Chase Oliver)<span id='easy-footnote-4-243226' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/23\/harris-ou-trump-a-qui-beneficiera-la-suspension-de-la-campagne-de-robert-f-kennedy-jr\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-243226' title='Nate Silver, \u00ab&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/rfk-jr-will-probably-drop-out-is&quot;&gt;RFK Jr. will probably drop out. Is that bearish for Harris&amp;#160;?&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;#160;\u00bb, &lt;em&gt;Silver Bulletin&lt;\/em&gt;, 22 ao\u00fbt 2024.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/bKzZt\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" ><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Comme pour chaque \u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle, la moyenne nationale compte relativement peu \u2014 particuli\u00e8rement lorsque les intentions de vote sont tr\u00e8s proches \u2014 et sert plus \u00e0 distinguer des dynamiques qu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9dire le r\u00e9sultat du scrutin. Le prochain pr\u00e9sident des \u00c9tats-Unis sera \u00e9lu par quelques centaines voire dizaines de milliers de votes dans les \u00c9tats en transition de la <em>rust belt <\/em>et de la <em>sun belt<\/em>, qui ne seront probablement que marginalement influenc\u00e9s par la \u00ab&#160;suspension&#160;\u00bb de la campagne de RFK et l\u2019annonce de son soutien \u00e0 Trump.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le candidat ind\u00e9pendant Robert F. Kennedy Jr., neveu de l\u2019ex-pr\u00e9sident JFK, vient d\u2019annoncer vendredi 23 ao\u00fbt \u00ab&#160;&#160;suspendre&#160;&#160;\u00bb sa campagne pour l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle et soutenir Donald Trump. Le retrait de son nom des bulletins dans certains \u00c9tats devrait b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier marginalement \u00e0 Trump, mais ne contribuera pas \u00e0 inverser la tendance favorable dont jouit Harris \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2622,"featured_media":243231,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3691],"tags":[],"geo":[525],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Harris ou Trump : \u00e0 qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiera la \u00absuspension\u00bb de la campagne de Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ? | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/23\/harris-ou-trump-a-qui-beneficiera-la-suspension-de-la-campagne-de-robert-f-kennedy-jr\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Harris ou Trump : \u00e0 qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiera la \u00absuspension\u00bb de la campagne de Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ? | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le candidat ind\u00e9pendant Robert F. Kennedy Jr., neveu de l\u2019ex-pr\u00e9sident JFK, vient d\u2019annoncer vendredi 23 ao\u00fbt \u00ab&#160;suspendre&#160;\u00bb sa campagne pour l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle et soutenir Donald Trump. Le retrait de son nom des bulletins dans certains \u00c9tats devrait b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier marginalement \u00e0 Trump, mais ne contribuera pas \u00e0 inverser la tendance favorable dont jouit Harris \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/23\/harris-ou-trump-a-qui-beneficiera-la-suspension-de-la-campagne-de-robert-f-kennedy-jr\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-08-23T19:19:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-08-23T19:42:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/gc-share-desistement-RFK-e1724431652478.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1453\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"816\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/08\/gc-share-desistement-RFK-e1724431652478.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marin Saillofest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/23\/harris-ou-trump-a-qui-beneficiera-la-suspension-de-la-campagne-de-robert-f-kennedy-jr\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/08\/23\/harris-ou-trump-a-qui-beneficiera-la-suspension-de-la-campagne-de-robert-f-kennedy-jr\/\",\"name\":\"Harris ou Trump : \u00e0 qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiera la \u00absuspension\u00bb de la campagne de Robert F. 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