{"id":236883,"date":"2024-07-07T20:01:17","date_gmt":"2024-07-07T18:01:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/?p=236883"},"modified":"2024-07-08T07:58:16","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T05:58:16","slug":"resultats-legislatives-le-nouveau-front-populaire-serait-en-tete-le-rn-loin-de-la-majorite-ensemble-pourrait-le-depasser-x-y","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/07\/resultats-legislatives-le-nouveau-front-populaire-serait-en-tete-le-rn-loin-de-la-majorite-ensemble-pourrait-le-depasser-x-y\/","title":{"rendered":"R\u00e9sultats l\u00e9gislatives&#160;: le Nouveau Front Populaire est en t\u00eate, le RN loin de la majorit\u00e9, Ensemble d\u00e9passe Le Pen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Aujourd\u2019hui et ce soir, toutes nos analyses <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/elections\/france\/legislatives-anticipees-en-france\/\"><em>L\u00e9gislatives 2024<\/em><\/a><em> sont en acc\u00e8s libre. Ce travail a un co\u00fbt. Si vous pensez qu\u2019il m\u00e9rite d\u2019\u00eatre soutenu et que vous en avez les moyens, nous vous demandons de <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/offre-legc\/\"><em>vous abonner au Grand Continent<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notre simulateur de coalitions a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9 \u00e0 partir des estimations de sorties des urnes Ipsos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  frame-coalition-fr-div\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/iframes\/coalitions_live2.htm\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u00c0 noter&#160;: un \u00e9cart tr\u00e8s important entre les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019Odoxa \u2014 qui donne le RN \u00e0 quelques dizaines de si\u00e8ges de la majorit\u00e9 absolue.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nous avons compil\u00e9 ci-dessous les pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 20h de la plupart des instituts de sondage.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"iframe-container wp-block-image wp-block-image-medium  iframe-dw\">\n\t<div>\n\t\t<iframe class=\"absolute w-full h-full pin-t pin-l\" title=\"titolo\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/jiEyn\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Quelle coalition&#160;?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>La France reste divis\u00e9e en trois parties, aucun bloc n\u2019ayant la majorit\u00e9, des coalitions deviennent indispensables pour former un gouvernement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Notre approche permet de visualiser les possibilit\u00e9s r\u00e9elles de coalitions. Le simulateur \u00e9tudie plusieurs configurations possibles, avec une conclusion provisoire&#160;: divis\u00e9e en trois blocs, la France pourrait d\u00e9couvrir la politique parlementaire.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>En effet, le parti de Marine Le Pen obtiendrait de 120 \u00e0 136 si\u00e8ges et son alli\u00e9 (les amis de Ciotti) de 12 \u00e0 16.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>LFI serait le premier parti \u00e0 gauche (entre 68 et 74 si\u00e8ges), suivi par le PS (63-69), les \u00e9cologistes (32-36) et les communistes (10-12).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Au centre, la coalition de la majorit\u00e9 pr\u00e9sidentielle est domin\u00e9e par Renaissance (95 \u00e0 105 si\u00e8ges) suivi par le MoDem (31 \u00e0 37) et Horizons (24 \u00e0 28 si\u00e8ges).&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/05\/decrochage-rn-avec-trois-blocs-quasi-identiques-a-lassemblee-nationale-les-projections-cluster-17-valideraient-le-pari-attal-mais-la-participation-reste-clef\/\">Le pari Attal<\/a> porterait ses fruits&#160;: le front r\u00e9publicain profiterait surtout au groupe Ensemble (entre 150 \u00e0 170 d\u00e9put\u00e9s), en s\u2019appuyant sur les d\u00e9sistements et la discipline r\u00e9publicaine de la gauche.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le R\u00e9publicans \/ divers droite obtiendrait de 57 \u00e0 67 d\u00e9put\u00e9s. Ils seront ainsi dans une position clef pour la constitution de toute majorit\u00e9 excluant le LFI et le RN.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Avec plus de 360 d\u00e9put\u00e9s, une \u00ab&#160;grande coalition&#160;\u00bb r\u00e9unissant les R\u00e9publicains, les centristes et le Nouveau Front Populaire \u2014 tout en excluant LFI \u2014 aurait la majorit\u00e9 absolue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Reste \u00e0 voir si, dans ce cas de figure, une n\u00e9gociation d\u2019un programme de gouvernement <em>a minima<\/em> de reconstruction nationale pourrait permettre de parvenir \u00e0 un compromis et \u00e9viter la censure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nous publions le premier simulateur de coalitions \u00e0 partir des estimations de sorties des urnes Ipsos.<\/p>\n<p>Ils confirmeraient pour l\u2019instant la tripartition de la France \u00e0 l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e. Le RN sous-performerait par rapport aux projections et le bloc pr\u00e9sidentiel se maintiendrait, b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiant, avec le bloc de gauche, du front r\u00e9publicain. Une \u00ab&#160;grande coalition&#160;\u00bb serait possible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":237034,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/post-briefings.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_yoast_wpseo_estimated-reading-time-minutes":2,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3811],"tags":[],"staff":[],"editorial_format":[4942],"serie":[],"audience":[],"geo":[1917],"class_list":["post-236883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-legislatives-2024","editorial_format-actu-breves","geo-europe"],"acf":{"open_in_webview":false,"accent":false,"_thumbnail_id":237034,"excerpt":"Nous publions le premier simulateur de coalitions \u00e0 partir des estimations de sorties des urnes Ipsos.\r\n\r\nIls confirmeraient pour l\u2019instant la tripartition de la France \u00e0 l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e. Le RN sous-performerait par rapport aux projections et le bloc pr\u00e9sidentiel se maintiendrait, b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiant, avec le bloc de gauche, du front r\u00e9publicain. Une \u00abgrande coalition\u00bb serait possible.","display_date":"","new_abstract":true},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>R\u00e9sultats l\u00e9gislatives: le Nouveau Front Populaire est en t\u00eate, le RN loin de la majorit\u00e9, Ensemble d\u00e9passe Le Pen | Le Grand Continent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/07\/resultats-legislatives-le-nouveau-front-populaire-serait-en-tete-le-rn-loin-de-la-majorite-ensemble-pourrait-le-depasser-x-y\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"R\u00e9sultats l\u00e9gislatives: le Nouveau Front Populaire est en t\u00eate, le RN loin de la majorit\u00e9, Ensemble d\u00e9passe Le Pen | Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nous publions le premier simulateur de coalitions \u00e0 partir des estimations de sorties des urnes Ipsos.  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Une \u00ab&#160;grande coalition&#160;\u00bb serait possible.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2024\/07\/07\/resultats-legislatives-le-nouveau-front-populaire-serait-en-tete-le-rn-loin-de-la-majorite-ensemble-pourrait-le-depasser-x-y\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Le Grand Continent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-07T18:01:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-07-08T05:58:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/gc-simu-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1440\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Matheo Malik\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" 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